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A future without browsers, February 2017

A future without browsers, February 2017

A future without browsers, February 2017.

ngVikings 2017

Kenneth Auchenberg

February 11, 2017
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  1. February 2017
    Kenneth Auchenberg
    Program Manager, Microsoft
    A future without browsers

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  2. I’m Kenneth

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  4. Source: http://www.davemanuel.com/2016/01/09/poll-74-of-likely-republican-voters-believe-that-donald-trump-will-probably-win-nomination/

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  5. Browsers

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  6. We are the last generation to
    know what a “browser” is

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  7. A walk down memory lane

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  9. DESKTOP TOWER
    WINDOWS XP
    CRT MONITOR
    COCA COLA
    CD-ROM!

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  10. Browsers were document readers

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  11. Source: http://collective-thoughts.com/wp-content/netscape-navigator.JPG
    Browsers shipped on physical media

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  12. Browsers used to cost money

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  13. Browser start-pages were a thing

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  14. Everything has changed

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  15. Modern browsers are application runtimes

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  16. The browser business model
    has changed

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  17. Today browsers are free and
    are funnels to search

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  18. Mozilla Firefox revenue
    https://static.mozilla.com/moco/en-US/pdf/2015_Mozilla_Audited_Financial_Statement.pdf

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  19. Google (Chrome) revenue
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204417000008/goog10-kq42016.htm

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  20. Apple Safari Revenue
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204417000008/goog10-kq42016.htm

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  21. Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-07-19/microsoft-turns-bing-from-a-joke-into-an-ad-business
    Microsoft Bing (Edge) revenue

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  22. Internet adoption has changed

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  25. Source: https://qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/

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  26. Facebook is the startpage of
    the next billion

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  27. Form factors have changed

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  28. Source: http://www.highdefgeek.com/visual-portrait-evolution-mobile-phones/

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  29. Mobile internet users

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  30. Saying “mobile internet” = “color tv”
    Source: Benedict Evans, http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2016/3/29/presentation-mobile-ate-the-world
    Benedict Evans, Andreessen Horowitz

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  32. Our rendering engines have
    changed

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  33. Today’s web rendering engines
    WebKit Blink EdgeHTML Gecko
    U3 Engine Servo

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  34. In a few years you won’t know you
    are using a browser.

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  35. Tada!
    Progressive Web Apps

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  36. Desktop: Web as a runtime
    Slack VS Code

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  37. Mobile: Web embedded inside native
    Chrome Custom Tabs Safari View Controllers

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  38. Progressive Web Apps
    Browser chrome Home screen “App”

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  39. What about the future?

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  40. Web apps will find their way
    to app stores and redefine
    them

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  41. Community-based search indexes

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  42. Apps being indexed in search engines

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  43. Search engines and app stores
    will melt together

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  44. As the browser chrome
    disappears, new search entry
    points will appear

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  47. Source: http://www.imore.com/how-to-use-calendar-with-siri

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  49. The front-end role is being
    redefined, as native and web
    melts together

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  52. https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Echo-Bluetooth-Speaker-with-WiFi-Alexa/

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  53. Search-based browser business
    models will get challenged

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  54. Brave Browser & Brave Payments

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  55. Today’s real browsers are social
    streams + WebViews

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  56. Source: http://flurrymobile.tumblr.com/post/127638842745/seven-years-into-the-mobile-revolution-content-is

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  57. Facebook is a browser

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  58. Twitter is a browser

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  59. If any app can a browser,
    what is it then?

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  60. New meta-platforms will rise

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  61. Meta platforms
    Host platforms Android iOS
    Desktop
    (Windows)
    Web platform WeChat Facebook
    Amazon
    Alexa
    Content platforms
    Instant
    articles
    Voice
    actions
    Mini
    programs
    PWA’s/AMP
    Chat Social networks Voice platforms
    Web runtimes

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  62. WeChat “mini program” apps (840 mio users)
    Source: http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IM8dJ01QNpqTBcix_13_yw

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  63. Prediction: React Apps inside
    Facebook

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  64. Browser rendering engines
    will become commodity

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  65. New browser-shells appears
    Non engine differentiation

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  66. We have moved to higher-level
    authoring abstractions

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  67. Modern framework architectures
    Source: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1M9FmT05Q6qpsjgvH1XvCm840yn2eWEg0PMskSQz7k4E/edit

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  68. Web platform primitives are
    compile targets

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  69. New role for frameworks and
    JavaScript

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  70. The new “web” is in flux.
    “ I installed an app on Android phone ”
    What does install
    mean? Click a link?
    Say it?
    What is an
    app? Website?
    WeChat micro
    program?
    Android/Chrome?
    Google/Angular?
    Facebook/React?
    Phone? Watch? Amazon
    Echo?

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  71. There hasn’t been a more
    awesome time to write
    JavaScript than today!

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  72. We are the last generation to
    know what a “browser” is

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  73. Thanks!
    @auchenberg

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