A future without browsers, February 2017.
ngVikings 2017
February 2017Kenneth AuchenbergProgram Manager, MicrosoftA future without browsers
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I’m Kenneth
Source: http://www.davemanuel.com/2016/01/09/poll-74-of-likely-republican-voters-believe-that-donald-trump-will-probably-win-nomination/
Browsers
We are the last generation toknow what a “browser” is
A walk down memory lane
DESKTOP TOWERWINDOWS XPCRT MONITORCOCA COLACD-ROM!
Browsers were document readers
Source: http://collective-thoughts.com/wp-content/netscape-navigator.JPGBrowsers shipped on physical media
Browsers used to cost money
Browser start-pages were a thing
Everything has changed
Modern browsers are application runtimes
The browser business modelhas changed
Today browsers are free andare funnels to search
Mozilla Firefox revenuehttps://static.mozilla.com/moco/en-US/pdf/2015_Mozilla_Audited_Financial_Statement.pdf
Google (Chrome) revenuehttps://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204417000008/goog10-kq42016.htm
Apple Safari Revenuehttps://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204417000008/goog10-kq42016.htm
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-07-19/microsoft-turns-bing-from-a-joke-into-an-ad-businessMicrosoft Bing (Edge) revenue
Internet adoption has changed
Source: https://qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/
Facebook is the startpage ofthe next billion
Form factors have changed
Source: http://www.highdefgeek.com/visual-portrait-evolution-mobile-phones/
Mobile internet users
Saying “mobile internet” = “color tv”Source: Benedict Evans, http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2016/3/29/presentation-mobile-ate-the-worldBenedict Evans, Andreessen Horowitz
Our rendering engines havechanged
Today’s web rendering enginesWebKit Blink EdgeHTML GeckoU3 Engine Servo
In a few years you won’t know youare using a browser.
Tada!Progressive Web Apps
Desktop: Web as a runtimeSlack VS Code
Mobile: Web embedded inside nativeChrome Custom Tabs Safari View Controllers
Progressive Web AppsBrowser chrome Home screen “App”
What about the future?
Web apps will find their wayto app stores and redefinethem
Community-based search indexes
Apps being indexed in search engines
Search engines and app storeswill melt together
As the browser chromedisappears, new search entrypoints will appear
Source: http://www.imore.com/how-to-use-calendar-with-siri
The front-end role is beingredefined, as native and webmelts together
https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Echo-Bluetooth-Speaker-with-WiFi-Alexa/
Search-based browser businessmodels will get challenged
Brave Browser & Brave Payments
Today’s real browsers are socialstreams + WebViews
Source: http://flurrymobile.tumblr.com/post/127638842745/seven-years-into-the-mobile-revolution-content-is
Facebook is a browser
Twitter is a browser
If any app can a browser,what is it then?
New meta-platforms will rise
Meta platformsHost platforms Android iOSDesktop(Windows)Web platform WeChat FacebookAmazonAlexaContent platformsInstantarticlesVoiceactionsMiniprogramsPWA’s/AMPChat Social networks Voice platformsWeb runtimes
WeChat “mini program” apps (840 mio users)Source: http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IM8dJ01QNpqTBcix_13_yw
Prediction: React Apps insideFacebook
Browser rendering engineswill become commodity
New browser-shells appearsNon engine differentiation
We have moved to higher-levelauthoring abstractions
Modern framework architecturesSource: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1M9FmT05Q6qpsjgvH1XvCm840yn2eWEg0PMskSQz7k4E/edit
Web platform primitives arecompile targets
New role for frameworks andJavaScript
The new “web” is in flux.“ I installed an app on Android phone ”What does installmean? Click a link?Say it?What is anapp? Website?WeChat microprogram?Android/Chrome?Google/Angular?Facebook/React?Phone? Watch? AmazonEcho?
There hasn’t been a moreawesome time to writeJavaScript than today!
Thanks!@auchenberg