A future without browsers, February 2017

A future without browsers, February 2017.

ngVikings 2017

Transcript

1. February 2017
   Kenneth Auchenberg
   Program Manager, Microsoft
   A future without browsers
   

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2. I’m Kenneth
   

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4. Source: http://www.davemanuel.com/2016/01/09/poll-74-of-likely-republican-voters-believe-that-donald-trump-will-probably-win-nomination/
   

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5. Browsers
   

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6. We are the last generation to
   know what a “browser” is
   

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7. A walk down memory lane
   

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9. DESKTOP TOWER
   WINDOWS XP
   CRT MONITOR
   COCA COLA
   CD-ROM!
   

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10. Browsers were document readers
    

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11. Source: http://collective-thoughts.com/wp-content/netscape-navigator.JPG
    Browsers shipped on physical media
    

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12. Browsers used to cost money
    

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13. Browser start-pages were a thing
    

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14. Everything has changed
    

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15. Modern browsers are application runtimes
    

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16. The browser business model
    has changed
    

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17. Today browsers are free and
    are funnels to search
    

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18. Mozilla Firefox revenue
    https://static.mozilla.com/moco/en-US/pdf/2015_Mozilla_Audited_Financial_Statement.pdf
    

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19. Google (Chrome) revenue
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204417000008/goog10-kq42016.htm
    

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20. Apple Safari Revenue
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204417000008/goog10-kq42016.htm
    

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21. Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-07-19/microsoft-turns-bing-from-a-joke-into-an-ad-business
    Microsoft Bing (Edge) revenue
    

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22. Internet adoption has changed
    

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25. Source: https://qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/
    

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26. Facebook is the startpage of
    the next billion
    

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27. Form factors have changed
    

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28. Source: http://www.highdefgeek.com/visual-portrait-evolution-mobile-phones/
    

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29. Mobile internet users
    

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30. Saying “mobile internet” = “color tv”
    Source: Benedict Evans, http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2016/3/29/presentation-mobile-ate-the-world
    Benedict Evans, Andreessen Horowitz
    

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32. Our rendering engines have
    changed
    

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33. Today’s web rendering engines
    WebKit Blink EdgeHTML Gecko
    U3 Engine Servo
    

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34. In a few years you won’t know you
    are using a browser.
    

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35. Tada!
    Progressive Web Apps
    

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36. Desktop: Web as a runtime
    Slack VS Code
    

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37. Mobile: Web embedded inside native
    Chrome Custom Tabs Safari View Controllers
    

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38. Progressive Web Apps
    Browser chrome Home screen “App”
    

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39. What about the future?
    

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40. Web apps will find their way
    to app stores and redefine
    them
    

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41. Community-based search indexes
    

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42. Apps being indexed in search engines
    

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43. Search engines and app stores
    will melt together
    

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44. As the browser chrome
    disappears, new search entry
    points will appear
    

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47. Source: http://www.imore.com/how-to-use-calendar-with-siri
    

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49. The front-end role is being
    redefined, as native and web
    melts together
    

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52. https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Echo-Bluetooth-Speaker-with-WiFi-Alexa/
    

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53. Search-based browser business
    models will get challenged
    

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54. Brave Browser & Brave Payments
    

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55. Today’s real browsers are social
    streams + WebViews
    

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56. Source: http://flurrymobile.tumblr.com/post/127638842745/seven-years-into-the-mobile-revolution-content-is
    

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57. Facebook is a browser
    

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58. Twitter is a browser
    

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59. If any app can a browser,
    what is it then?
    

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60. New meta-platforms will rise
    

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61. Meta platforms
    Host platforms Android iOS
    Desktop
    (Windows)
    Web platform WeChat Facebook
    Amazon
    Alexa
    Content platforms
    Instant
    articles
    Voice
    actions
    Mini
    programs
    PWA’s/AMP
    Chat Social networks Voice platforms
    Web runtimes
    

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62. WeChat “mini program” apps (840 mio users)
    Source: http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IM8dJ01QNpqTBcix_13_yw
    

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63. Prediction: React Apps inside
    Facebook
    

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64. Browser rendering engines
    will become commodity
    

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65. New browser-shells appears
    Non engine differentiation
    

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66. We have moved to higher-level
    authoring abstractions
    

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67. Modern framework architectures
    Source: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1M9FmT05Q6qpsjgvH1XvCm840yn2eWEg0PMskSQz7k4E/edit
    

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68. Web platform primitives are
    compile targets
    

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69. New role for frameworks and
    JavaScript
    

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70. The new “web” is in flux.
    “ I installed an app on Android phone ”
    What does install
    mean? Click a link?
    Say it?
    What is an
    app? Website?
    WeChat micro
    program?
    Android/Chrome?
    Google/Angular?
    Facebook/React?
    Phone? Watch? Amazon
    Echo?
    

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71. There hasn’t been a more
    awesome time to write
    JavaScript than today!
    

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72. We are the last generation to
    know what a “browser” is
    

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73. Thanks!
    @auchenberg
    

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