Upgrade to Pro — share decks privately, control downloads, hide ads and more …

Climate change - not as complicated as you might think

Climate change - not as complicated as you might think

Presented at Nerd Nite Melbourne, April 2014. See video recording here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qVp97VQQSs

Damien Irving

April 01, 2014
Tweet

More Decks by Damien Irving

Other Decks in Science

Transcript

  1. Not as complicated as you might think…
    Damien Irving
    PhD candidate
    University of Melbourne

    View Slide

  2. Climate change…
    ž  What is it?
    ž  How do we know it’s happening?
    ž  How do we know it’s our fault?
    ž  What will the future climate look like?
    ž  Why aren’t we doing anything about it?
    ž  As individuals, what can we do about it?

    View Slide

  3. What is it?
    The Greenhouse Effect

    View Slide

  4. What is it?
    Problem: Greenhouse gas concentrations are on the rise…

    View Slide

  5. What is it?
    Consequences of trapping extra energy…

    View Slide

  6. What is it?
    Surface temperature is only one of many indicators…

    View Slide

  7. How do we know it’s happening?

    View Slide

  8. How do we know it’s our fault?
    ž  How  do  we  know  that  we  put  that  excess  
    carbon  dioxide  in  the  atmosphere?  
    —  Historical  records  of  human  ac8vity    
    —  Lighter  isotopic  composi8on  of  atmospheric  carbon    
    —  Decrease  in  atmospheric  oxygen  (combus8on)  
    ž  How  do  we  know  the  excess  carbon  dioxide  
    has  caused  the  rise  in  global  temperature?  
    —  Our  knowledge  of  the  Greenhouse  effect  
    —  Our  knowledge  of  the  Earth’s  climate  history  
    —  Nothing  else  makes  sense  
    —  Climate  modelling  

    View Slide

  9. How do we know it’s our fault?
    Climate model simulations: with (pink) & without (blue) humans

    View Slide

  10. What will the future climate look
    like?
    ž  Easy  projec8ons  (high  confidence)  
    —  Temperature  
    —  Sea  level  
    —  Ocean  acidity  
    ž  More  difficult  projec8ons  (lower  confidence)  
    —  Rainfall  
    ○  Storms,  tropical  cyclones  etc  

    View Slide

  11. What will the future climate look
    like?
    Projected changes in rainfall

    View Slide

  12. Why aren’t we doing anything
    about it?
    ž  We can emit 565
    more gigatones of
    CO2
    to stay below
    2°C warming
    ž  Fossil fuel
    companies have
    2,795 gigatons in
    their reserves

    View Slide

  13. As individuals, what can we do
    about it?
    Westpac divestment, 8 March 2014

    View Slide

  14. ž  What is climate change?
    —  The trapping of extra energy from the sun
    ž  How do we know it’s happening?
    —  We measured it
    ž  How do we know it’s our fault?
    —  Some cool scientific detective work
    ○  Basic concepts from the 1800s, lighter carbon,
    decreasing oxygen, computer climate models,
    historical records, …
    Conclusions

    View Slide

  15. Conclusions
    ž  What will the future climate look like?
    —  Hotter, higher seas, more acidic oceans
    —  Wet get wetter, dry get drier
    ž  Why aren’t we doing anything about it?
    —  Money / vested interests
    ž  As individuals, what can we do about it?
    —  Don’t be an individual - get involved in the
    community/movement
    ○  e.g. divestment, rallies

    View Slide