Insight - Pulse

Transcript

1. Pulse Predictive Intelligence for the Sharing Economy Denis Willett
2. Meet Omar Omar :
3. Meet Omar Needs : Omar :
4. Meet Omar Needs : Because : Omar :
5. Omar’s Information:
6. Omar’s Information:
7. Omar’s Information:
8. Omar’s Information: Messy
9. Omar’s Information: Bad Advice
10. Enter Pulse…
11. aggregates API data from: • Ride Cost
12. aggregates API data from: • Tweets • Followers
13. aggregates API data from: • Rain Intensity • Rain Probability • Temperature
14. aggregates API data from: • Start Time • End Time • Capacity
15. generating predictions: Day 1 Features: Ride Cost • Tweets • Followers • Event Times • Capacity • Rain • Temperature • Location • Time
16. generating predictions: Day 1 Features: Ride Cost • Tweets • Followers • Event Times • Capacity • Rain • Temperature • Location • Time RF Model
17. generating predictions: Day 1 Random Forest Model
18. generating predictions: Day 1 Random Forest Model Day 2 Ride Cost Features: • Tweets • Followers • Event Times • Capacity • Rain • Temperature • Location • Time Predict
19. generating predictions: Day 1 Random Forest Model Day 2 Ride Cost Features: • Tweets • Followers • Event Times • Capacity • Rain • Temperature • Location • Time Predict Validate
20. generating predictions: Future Past Validate
21. generating predictions: Future Past Validate Iterative Should Improve with Time
22. continuously improving… • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 Jan 27 Jan 29 Jan 31 Feb 02 Feb 04 Surge Pricing Prediction Error (RMSE) • • Lyft Uber prediction error decreases over time
23. Detects Hotspots • Pulse • Observed • 37.75 37.80 −122.52 −122.48 −122.44 −122.40 −122.36 long lat 0 10 20 30 40 50 Estimated +$ (%) Pulse
24. • Detects Hotspots • Pulse • Observed • 37.75 37.80 −122.52 −122.48 −122.44 −122.40 −122.36 long lat 0 10 20 30 40 50 Estimated +$ (%) Pulse • Observed
25. • • • $30,000 $32,000 $34,000 $36,000 $38,000 $40,000 Pulse Airport Random Annual Salary Pulsemakes Omar ~$10,000
27. Because :
30. Denis Willett
31. • • • • • • • • • • • • Rain Eventbrite Day Week Day Eventful Capacity Followers Event Temp Tweets Hour Location 0 10 20 30 40 100 • • • • Event Geo/Time Twitter Weather Feature Importance • • • 10 20 30 40 10 • • • • Event Geo/Time Twitter Weather
32. continuously improving… • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 Jan 27 Jan 29 Jan 31 Feb 02 Feb 04 Surge Pricing Prediction Error (RMSE) • • Lyft Uber prediction error decreases over time
33. continuously improving… • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 Jan 27 Jan 29 Jan 31 Feb 02 Feb 04 Surge Pricing Prediction Error (RMSE) • • Lyft Uber prediction error decreases over time
34. • • • • • • • • • • • • Rain Eventbrite Day Week Day Eventful Capacity Followers Event Temp Tweets Hour Location 0 10 20 30 40 100 • • • • Event Geo/Time Twitter Weather First Feature Importance • • • 10 20 30 40 10 • • • • Event Geo/Time Twitter Weather
35. Rainy Day Feature Importance • • • • • • • • • • • • • Capacity Event Week Day Eventbrite Eventful Day Rain Probability Rain Temperature Followers Tweets Hour Location 0 25 50 75 100 • • • • Event Geo/Time Twitter Weather • • • 10 20 30 40 10 • • • • Event Geo/Time Twitter Weather