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Insight - Pulse
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deniswillett
February 07, 2017
Design
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Insight - Pulse
deniswillett
February 07, 2017
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Transcript
Pulse Predictive Intelligence for the Sharing Economy Denis Willett
Meet Omar Omar :
Meet Omar Needs : Omar :
Meet Omar Needs : Because : Omar :
Omar’s Information:
Omar’s Information:
Omar’s Information:
Omar’s Information: Messy
Omar’s Information: Bad Advice
Enter Pulse…
aggregates API data from: • Ride Cost
aggregates API data from: • Tweets • Followers
aggregates API data from: • Rain Intensity • Rain Probability
• Temperature
aggregates API data from: • Start Time • End Time
• Capacity
generating predictions: Day 1 Features: Ride Cost • Tweets •
Followers • Event Times • Capacity • Rain • Temperature • Location • Time
generating predictions: Day 1 Features: Ride Cost • Tweets •
Followers • Event Times • Capacity • Rain • Temperature • Location • Time RF Model
generating predictions: Day 1 Random Forest Model
generating predictions: Day 1 Random Forest Model Day 2 Ride
Cost Features: • Tweets • Followers • Event Times • Capacity • Rain • Temperature • Location • Time Predict
generating predictions: Day 1 Random Forest Model Day 2 Ride
Cost Features: • Tweets • Followers • Event Times • Capacity • Rain • Temperature • Location • Time Predict Validate
generating predictions: Future Past Validate
generating predictions: Future Past Validate Iterative Should Improve with Time
continuously improving… • • • • • • • •
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 Jan 27 Jan 29 Jan 31 Feb 02 Feb 04 Surge Pricing Prediction Error (RMSE) • • Lyft Uber prediction error decreases over time
Detects Hotspots • Pulse • Observed • 37.75 37.80 −122.52
−122.48 −122.44 −122.40 −122.36 long lat 0 10 20 30 40 50 Estimated +$ (%) Pulse
• Detects Hotspots • Pulse • Observed • 37.75 37.80
−122.52 −122.48 −122.44 −122.40 −122.36 long lat 0 10 20 30 40 50 Estimated +$ (%) Pulse • Observed
• • • $30,000 $32,000 $34,000 $36,000 $38,000 $40,000 Pulse
Airport Random Annual Salary Pulsemakes Omar ~$10,000
None
Because :
None
None
Denis Willett
• • • • • • • • • •
• • Rain Eventbrite Day Week Day Eventful Capacity Followers Event Temp Tweets Hour Location 0 10 20 30 40 100 • • • • Event Geo/Time Twitter Weather Feature Importance • • • 10 20 30 40 10 • • • • Event Geo/Time Twitter Weather
continuously improving… • • • • • • • •
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 Jan 27 Jan 29 Jan 31 Feb 02 Feb 04 Surge Pricing Prediction Error (RMSE) • • Lyft Uber prediction error decreases over time
continuously improving… • • • • • • • •
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 Jan 27 Jan 29 Jan 31 Feb 02 Feb 04 Surge Pricing Prediction Error (RMSE) • • Lyft Uber prediction error decreases over time
• • • • • • • • • •
• • Rain Eventbrite Day Week Day Eventful Capacity Followers Event Temp Tweets Hour Location 0 10 20 30 40 100 • • • • Event Geo/Time Twitter Weather First Feature Importance • • • 10 20 30 40 10 • • • • Event Geo/Time Twitter Weather
Rainy Day Feature Importance • • • • • •
• • • • • • • Capacity Event Week Day Eventbrite Eventful Day Rain Probability Rain Temperature Followers Tweets Hour Location 0 25 50 75 100 • • • • Event Geo/Time Twitter Weather • • • 10 20 30 40 10 • • • • Event Geo/Time Twitter Weather