A MaxEnt Theory for Macroecology? (Gordon Research Conference 2012)

An update on our evaluations of John Harte and colleagues' maximum entropy models of macroecological patterns. Presented that the Gordon Research Conference on the Metabolic Basis of Ecology, July 25th, 2012.

Transcript

1. A MaxEnt Theory for Macroecology? GRC, July 25th 2012 A Weecology Production Ethan P. White @ethanwhite whitelab.weecology.org Talk available at: http://is.gd/epwgrc2012 Feel free to tweet
2. A Maximum Entropy Theory of Macroecology? • Constraints – Number of species (S0 ) – Number of individuals (N0 ) – Total metabolism (E0 ) • Predicts – Species-abundance distribution – Size-abundance patterns – Spatial patterns (Harte et al. 2008, 2009; Harte 2011)
7. Kate Thibault Xiao Xiao Does Harte’s MaxEnt model fit the species-abundance distribution?
8. 15745 sites 8802 species 4 major taxa 50 million individuals
9. Predicted Abundance Observed Abundance R2 = 0.90 R2 = 0.91 E is for Entropy
10. R2 = 0.86 R2 = 0.83 R2 = 0.93 R2 = 0.93 Predicted Abundance Observed Abundance
11. A MaxEnt Theory for Macroecology? • Explains ≈ 90% of the variation in species abundance distributions • Using only S0 and N0 • But… Predicted Abundance Observed Abundance 16,000 Sites 6 Continents 9,000 Species 4 Major Taxa 50 Million Individuals
12. Xiao Xiao Evaluation of 4 predictions from METE log(# of Indivs) # of Species Body Size # Indivs log(Body Size) log(# Indivs) Body Size # Indivs Species Abundance Distribution Intraspecific Size Distributions Size Density Relationship Individual Size Distribution ≈20 datasets BCI 50 ha plot
13. Xiao Xiao Evaluation of 4 predictions from METE log(# of Indivs) # of Species Body Size # Indivs log(Body Size) log(# Indivs) Body Size # Indivs Species Abundance Distribution Intraspecific Size Distributions Size Density Relationship Individual Size Distribution ≈20 datasets BCI 50 ha plot
14. DBH Probability Density Individual Size Distribution
15. DBH2 # of Individuals Size-Density Relationship
16. Theory Building Theory Testing
17. Want to know more? 4 Pattern Test Spatial Patterns Dan McGlinn Xiao Xiao Experimental Data Sarah Supp
18. Acknowledgements Weecologists The thousands of citizen scientists who make all of this possible
19. I don’t always analyze data But when I do, I prefer a lot of it
20. Open & Reproducible Science • Code: github.com/weecology (MIT license) • Talks: https://speakerdeck.com/u/ethanwhite • Grants: weecology.org/grants • Blog: jabberwocky.weecology.org (CC-BY license) • Twitter: @ethanwhite