Class 23: Golden Ages

cs1120: Introduction to Computing
Explorations in Language, Logic, and Machine
University of Virginia, Spring 2016

http://xplorecs.org/class23

Class 23:
Sparring Question
Endless Golden Ages
Simulating the Universe
Malthus

Transcript

1. Class 23: Golden Ages Introduction to Computing: Explorations in Language, Logic, and Machines cs1120 Spring 2016 David Evans University of Virginia
2. Plan Blue Belt Sparring Problems Endless Golden Ages! Red Belt Promotion: Book Chapters 10, 11, and 12 Project 5: Tic-Tac-Go! (Classes, AI game playing) Project 6: Charme (Language Interpreters) Exam on Computability and Interpreters Black Belt Promotion: Build an interesting application (your choice and design) 2pm Today: The Promise and Threat of Algorithmic Accountability Frank Pasquale Maryland Law School Clark Hall 108
8. ACM1: Beyond Cyberspace (2001) Neil de Grasse Tyson: "Awash in Data, Awash in Discoveries: Defining the Golden Age of Science“ Alan Kay: "The Computer Revolution Hasn't Happened Yet" (Vice President and Disney Fellow, Walt Disney Imagineering) Dean Kamen: "Engineering the Future Depends on Future Engineers" (President and Owner, DEKA Research & Development Corporation and Founder of FIRST)
10. “If you’re going to use your computer to simulate some phenomenon in the universe, then it only becomes interesting if you change the scale of that phenomenon by at least a factor of 10. … For a 3D simulation, an increase by a factor of 10 in each of the three dimensions increases your volume by a factor of 1000.” What is the asymptotic running time for simulating the universe? 9
11. def simulate_universe(N):
13. Astrophysics and Simulation Simulating universe: time is in ϴ(n3) Tyson: to understand something new about universe, need to scale by 10x 12 How long does it take to know twice as much about the universe?
14. Gordon Moore 2016 Jefferson Foundation Medal in Global Innovation Computing power per cost approximately doubles every 18 months! ComputationPerDollar(m) = Cm m: months in the future C ∼ ? “Moore’s Law” (Observation?)
16. 15 Log scale: straight line = exponential curve! Koomey’s Law:Assessing Trends in the Electrical Efficiency of Computation Over Time
17. Astrophysics and Moore’s Law Simulating universe: time is in ϴ(n3) Moore’s “law”: computing power for same cost doubles every 18 months Tyson: to understand something new about universe, need to scale by 10x 16 How long does it take to know twice as much about the universe?
20. Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I’m not sure about the former. Albert Einstein 19
21. “Golden Age” Golden Age – period in which something improves exponentially At any point in history, half of what is known was discovered in the previous 15 years! Moore’s law recently, but other advances previously (and tomorrow): telescopes, photocopiers, clocks, agriculture, drone delivery, personal assistant, etc. 20 Accumulating ∼4% per year => doubling every 15 years Accumulating ∼4% per month => 1000x every 15 years
22. Endless/Short Golden Ages Endless golden age: Continuous exponential growth: ϴ(Cn) C is some constant (e.g., 1.04), n is number of years At any point, the amount known is a twice what was known 15 years ago Short golden age: knowledge doubles during a short, “golden” period, but typically only improves linearly
23. Pace of Progress 22
24. 23 0 10 20 30 40 50 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 Year of Invention Rank on List Wheel (~4000 BC) S ::= NP V NP ::= N and NP Language (-300 000) Cooking (-400 000)
25. Last Millennium 24 0 10 20 30 40 50 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900
26. Last Millennium 25 0 10 20 30 40 50 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 #1: Printing Press
27. Last Millennium 26 0 10 20 30 40 50 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 #1: Printing Press #2: Electricity Nikola Tesla
28. Last Millennium 27 0 10 20 30 40 50 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 #1: Printing Press #2: Electricity #4: Semiconductor #16: Personal Computer #9: Internet
29. Endless/Short Golden Ages Endless golden age: Continuous exponential growth: ϴ(Cn) C is some constant (e.g., 1.04), n is number of years At any point, the amount known is a twice what was known 15 years ago Short golden age: knowledge doubles during a short, “golden” period, but typically only improves linearly What’s an example of a field with a short golden age?
30. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1930 1934 1938 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U
31. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1930 1934 1938 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U Goal-den age
32. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1930 1934 1938 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Goal-den age Goals per game, FIFA World Cups
33. 32 Log scale: straight line = exponential curve! Koomey’s Law:Assessing Trends in the Electrical Efficiency of Computation Over Time “Any physical quantity that’s growing exponentially predicts a disaster, you simply can’t go beyond certain major limits.” Gordon Moore (2007)
34. Golden Ages or Golden Catastrophes? 33
35. Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus, Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798 34
36. 35 The great and unlooked for discoveries that have taken place of late years in natural philosophy, the increasing diffusion of general knowledge from the extension of the art of printing, the ardent and unshackled spirit of inquiry that prevails throughout the lettered and even unlettered world, … have all concurred to lead many able men into the opinion that we were touching on a period big with the most important changes, changes that would in some measure be decisive of the future fate of mankind.
37. I think I may fairly make two postulata. – First, that food is necessary to the existence of man. – Secondly, that the passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain…. Assuming then my postulata, I say, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio. 36 Food per person: ϴ(n)/ϴ(Kn) approaches 0
38. Malthus’ Fallacy?
39. He forgot how he started: “The great and unlooked for discoveries that have taken place of late years in natural philosophy, the increasing diffusion of general knowledge from the extension of the art of printing, the ardent and unshackled spirit of inquiry that prevails throughout the lettered and even unlettered world…” 38
40. Golden Age of Food Production Agriculture is an “endless golden age” field 39 Increasing knowledge of farming, weather forecasting, plant domestication, preservatives, genetic engineering, pest repellants, distribution channels, etc. production from the same land increases 2%/year
41. 2006: 10,000 pounds per acre 1906: < 1,000 pounds per acre 40
42. Corn Yield 41 Note: Log axis! http://www.agbioforum.org/v2n1/v2n1a10-ruttan.htm
43. Not done!
44. I think I may fairly make two postulata. – First, that food is necessary to the existence of man. – Secondly, that the passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain…. Assuming then my postulata, I say, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio. 43 What about his other postulate?
45. Advances in science (birth control), medicine (higher life expectancy), education, and societal and political changes (e.g., regulation in China) have reduced k (it is < 1 in many countries now!) 44
46. Charge When picking your field: • Pick a short golden age field that is about to enter its short golden age: this requires vision and luck! • Or, play it safe by picking an endless golden age field (CS is a good choice for this!) 2pm Today: The Promise and Threat of Algorithmic Accountability Frank Pasquale Clark Hall 108