Air transport in Russia and its impact on the economy

The presentation shows the economic impact of civil aviation on the Russian economy in 2007-2018. Air transport statistics can be found in annexes.

Transcript

1. AIR TRANSPORT IN RUSSIA AND ITS IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY
2. 1. INTRODUCTION 2
3. Global Aviation Industry in 2019 3
4. 4.3 billion passengers That’s more than half of global population 65.5 million jobs supported 4 times more than total number of employed people in Canada $2.7 trillion economic impact It is 3.6% of world GDP, equal to the United Kingdom economy. 4 Source: Aviation Benefits Report 2019 - Industry High Level Group on behalf of ICAO
5. Air transport impact on an economy United States of America ▷4.2% of GDP ▷6.5M jobs supported by air transport sector ▷$779 billion GVA contribution to GDP China ▷0.93% of GDP ▷6M jobs supported by air transport sector ▷$104 billion GVA contribution to GDP France ▷4.3% of GDP ▷1.1M jobs supported by air transport sector ▷$105 billion GVA contribution to GDP 5 What about Russia?... Note: GVA – Gross Value Added; GDP – Gross Domestic Product Source: Aviation Benefits Beyond Borders Reports 2018
6. The purpose is to estimate the influence of air transport industry on the economy of Russia so as to understand the importance of the aviation sphere for the country 6
7. The way to findings Calculations Data from official financial reports, pro.fira.ru, SPARK- Interfax, disclosure.ru, e-disclosure.ru Review of literature Academic journals, books, technical reports, working papers Methodology On the basis of Oxford Economics and United Nations ones 7
8. 2. METHODOLOGY 8
9. What is implied by air transport sector? 9 ▪ Airlines – Companies that provide transport for people and freight ▪ Ground-based infrastructure – Organizations that provide facilities for airlines and services for people and freight. It includes on-site services, such as airport utilities, and off-site ones that are connected with air traffic control and air regulation.
10. Four channels of economic contribution 10 DIRECT the output and employment of the firms in the aviation sector INDIRECT the output and employment supported through the aviation sector’s Russian based supply chain INDUCED employment and output supported by the spending of those directly or indirectly employed in the aviation sector CATALYTIC spillover benefits associated with the aviation sector (includes the activity supported by the spending of foreign visitors travelling to Russia via air) Note: only direct and indirect economic contribution is considered in the following calculations
11. Direct economic impact GDP A = COE + GOS + T P&M – S P&M where ▪ GDP A is Gross Domestic Product which is generated by air transport sector ▪ Compensation of employees (COE) measures the total remuneration to employees for work done and additional payments, connected to it. COE includes salaries, wages, and fringe benefits such as health or retirement ▪ Gross operating surplus (GOS) is the surplus due to owners of incorporated businesses. It is equal to EBITDA ▪ T P&M is taxes on production and imports ▪ S P&M is subsidies on production and imports. 11
12. Indirect economic impact ▪ Measured on the basis of Input-Output Tables ▪ Source for data: World Input-Output Database (WIOD) ▪ The data exist only for 2007-2014. For 2015-2018 calculations the multiplier for 2014 is used ▪ More information about how to calculate the multipliers can be found in the “Handbook of National Accounting – Input-Output Table Compilation and Analysis” by United Nations ▪ Only nominal GDP is considered in calculations and analysis, if not stated otherwise 12 Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Multiplier 2.13 2.26 2.37 2.34 2.32 2.26 2.27 2.30 Air Transport sector multipliers in Russia Source: authors’ calculations on the basis of WIOD
13. 3.1 RESULTS The indicators of aviation sector importance 13
14. 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% New Zealand Luxembourg Switzerland Hungary Panama Australia USA Netherlands United Kingdom Finland Canada Latvia Malaysia Spain Portugal Austria Greece Turkey Germany Belgium Saudi Arabia Thailand France Chile Japan Israel Russia Colombia Peru Czech Republic Mexico Brazil Italy China Lebanon Indonesia South Africa Argentina Phillipines Jordan Cyprus Ecuador Romania Poland Morocco Egypt India Kenya Ethiopia Nigeria Air passengers carried (% of population) 14 Ireland – 3453% Iceland – 2212% UAE – 992% Singapore – 717% Hong Kong – 632% Malta – 533% Source: WorldBank (Air passengers carried include both domestic and international aircraft passengers of air carriers registered in the country), regular flights, selected countries. Data relates to 2017 or most recent
15. ▷ Ranked 33th of 56*; ▷ 69% of population is carried; ▷ All of the countries ahead, except Panama, Thailand, Chile have higher GDP (PPP) per capita. Russia Countries at the top ▷ Are small by territory and population; ▷ Have a major carrier (e.g. Ireland – Ryanair; Hungary – WizzAir; UAE – Emirates); ▷ Primarily rely on transit passenger flow. 15 Countries at the bottom ▷ Are Developing or Least Developed; ▷ Have big population (Kenya – 50M, Ethiopia – 105M, Nigeria – 191M, India – 1.4B); ▷ Are still far ahead of the countries in their regions (Africa, South Asia). Note: if to take all of the countries, for which WorldBank has statistics, then Russia is ranked 54th of 159
16. 0,00% 0,25% 0,50% 0,75% 1,00% 1,25% 1,50% 1,75% 2,00% 2,25% 2,50% 2,75% Malta France Switzerland USA Ireland Saudi Arabia United Kingdom Australia Cyprus Portugal Thailand Spain Canada Luxembourg Jordan Mexico Israel Kenya Ethiopia Netherlands Chile Greece Germany Belgium Malaysia Italy Turkey Finland Austria Argentina South Africa Hungary Latvia Lebanon Japan Russia Egypt Morocco Ecuador Phillipines Czech Republic Indonesia Peru Romania Colombia Brazil Poland China India Nigeria Direct+Indirect aviation sector contribution to the economy (% of GDP) 16 Iceland – 10.82% Singapore – 5.44% Hong Kong – 4.77% UAE – 3.69% New Zealand – 3.46% Panama – 2.86% Source: WorldBank, ATAG, Oxford Economics, IATA. Data relates to 2017 or most recent. The same countries as on the previous bar chart
17. ▷ Ranked 42th of 56; ▷ 1.05% – aviation sector contribution to the economy; ▷ Russia’s comparable is Japan (similar number of passengers carried & economic contribution). Russia Countries at the top ▷ Have high percent of air passengers carried (% of population); ▷ Have large hub-and-spoke network; ▷ Have one dominant airline* (market share > 50%) and airport. 17 Countries at the bottom ▷ Are Developing, but have big population, territory and high GDP (PPP) ; ▷ Have a number of big airports; ▷ Have no dominant airline. Note: both international and domestic routes, national and foreign carriers are considered
18. 0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 90 000 100 000 110 000 Singapore France Israel Japan Belgium Netherlands Australia United Kingdom Austria Hungary Saudi Arabia Germany Canada New Zealand Finland Chile Spain Panama Italy Kenya Portugal Argentina Mexico Malta Greece UAE Ethiopia Lebanon Poland Turkey Cyprus Czech Republic Ecuador Indonesia Thailand Russia Phillipines South Africa Romania Brazil Latvia China Jordan Malaysia Peru Nigeria India Egypt Colombia Morocco GVA per person employed in aviation sector (USD per year) 18 Switzerland – $147 761 Ireland – $135 897 Iceland – $127 273 USA – $120 898 Hong Kong – $118 182 Luxembourg – $111 111 Source: WorldBank, ATAG, Oxford Economics, IATA. Data relates to 2017 or most recent. The same countries as on the previous bar chart
19. ▷ Ranked 42th of 56; ▷ One aviation sector employee generates $31 724 per year; ▷ Is ahead of other BRICS countries. Russia Countries at the top ▷ Are Developed; ▷ Have high economic contribution of aviation sector; ▷ Have high workforce productivity in other sectors of national economies. 19 Countries at the bottom ▷ Are Developing or Least Developed; ▷ Aviation sector is less significant for their economies; ▷ National airlines carry small percent of country’s population.
20. A country, for which aviation sector is of utmost importance 20 ▷ Is Developed; ▷ Has high level of workforce productivity in the whole economy; ▷ Is located NOT in Africa, South America or Oceania; ▷ Has small population; ▷ Has one major airline; ▷ Has one big hub airport; ▷ Relies on transit passengers taking international flights.
21. 3.2 RESULTS Russian air transport performance 21
22. Source: The Federal Agency for Air Transport (Rosaviatsiya), Transport Clearing House (TCH) 22 Passenger traffic (million) 20,3 22,4 21,3 27,7 31,4 38,6 45,3 46,9 39,5 32,2 42,5 47,4 55,1 24,8 27,4 23,8 29,2 32,7 35,4 39,2 46,3 52,6 56,4 62,6 68,8 73,1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 International Services Domestic Services
23. Source: The Federal Agency for Air Transport (Rosaviatsiya), Transport Clearing House (TCH) 23 62 68 63 88 100 124 147 153 128 111 145 161 188 50 55 49 60 66 71 78 89 99 104 115 126 135 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 International Services Domestic Services Passenger Turnover (billion passenger-kilometer)
24. -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 International routes Domestic routes Total 24 Consequences of the global financial crisis 2007-2008 Passenger turnover (% of increase over the previous year) Rebound after the crisis Russian financial crisis 2014- 2016, sanctions, oil prices Rebound after the crisis Source: authors’ calculations
25. ▷ The higher the growth of international routes TO*, the lower the growth of domestic ones; ▷ Financial crises have strong effect on the passenger turnover; ▷ There were 3 years of decrease out of 12. Total International routes ▷ Fluctuate more significantly; ▷ Depend on Ruble exchange rate; ▷ Grow easier after financial crises. 25 Domestic routes ▷ Show stable growth (except 2009); ▷ Were not highly affected by Russian financial crisis 2014-2016; ▷ Annual growth rate has not increased 10% since 2015. Note: TO – turnover
26. Source: The Federal Agency for Air Transport (Rosaviatsiya) 26 11,7 13,0 15,2 17,2 17,9 16,1 15,8 19,7 21,4 23,4 6,3 6,9 7,5 8,0 9,0 9,7 10,2 11,2 12,2 13,1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 International Services Domestic Services Revenue tonne-kilometers (billion)
27. Air Cargo Turnover (billion tonne-kilometers) Source: The Federal Agency for Air Transport (Rosaviatsiya) 27 3,82 3,98 4,03 3,98 4,17 4,64 5,73 6,70 6,92 6,48 0,89 0,97 1,05 1,03 0,98 0,81 0,85 0,89 0,89 0,91 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 International Services Domestic Services
28. Source: The Federal Agency for Air Transport (Rosaviatsiya) 28 Passenger load factor (%) 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 International Services Domestic Services Total
29. Source: The Federal Agency for Air Transport (Rosaviatsiya) 29 Revenue load factor (%) 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 International Services Domestic Services Total
30. 30 Market share of Russian airlines Aeroflot 29% S7 Airlines 11% Other 10% Rossiya 9% Pobeda 8% Ural 7% Utair 6% Azur Air 5% Nordwind 4% Globus 3% Red Wings Royal Flight Pegas Fly Nordavia Other 25% Aeroflot 17% S7 Airlines 12% Rossiya 7% Transaero 7% Utair 6% VIM 4% KrasAir 4% Atlant- Soyuz 4% Ural 3% Nordavia Tatarstan Donavia Domodedovo Vladivostok Air Orenair Note: ‘Other’ include airlines whose market share is 1% rounded; market share by passenger traffic. Source: The Federal Agency for Air Transport (Rosaviatsiya), Transport Clearing House (TCH) 2007 2019
31. 31 Market share of Russian airlines 17% 18% 19% 20% 22% 24% 25% 26% 28% 33% 31% 31% 29% 12% 11% 11% 8% 8% 9% 8% 9% 9% 11% 9% 10% 11% 25% 22% 22% 19% 19% 16% 16% 14% 14% 13% 13% 12% 10% 7% 7% 6% 5% 6% 6% 5% 6% 5% 9% 11% 10% 9% 5% 4% 6% 8% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 8% 8% 8% 6% 6% 8% 8% 9% 10% 10% 9% 6% 8% 7% 7% 6% 7% 9% 10% 12% 13% 14% 15% 15% 12% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Aeroflot S7 Airlines Other Rossiya Pobeda Ural Utair Transaero Azur Air Nordwind Globus Red Wings Royal Flight Pegas Fly Nordavia Yamal VIM Orenair Aurora Donavia Vladivostok Air NordStar Yakutia Avianova Sky Express Atlant-Soyuz KD Avia KrasAir Tatarstan Domodedovo Note: ‘Other’ include airlines whose market share is 1% rounded; market share by passenger traffic. Source: The Federal Agency for Air Transport (Rosaviatsiya), Transport Clearing House (TCH)
32. 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250 2500 2750 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 HHI Individual Airlines HHI Groups of Airlines 32 Airline market concentration in Russia Source: authors’ calculations; Groups of Airlines include Aeroflot Group, S7 Group, Utair Group Aeroflot acquires Rossiya, Orenair, Vladivostok Air Aeroflot launches Pobeda Transaero goes bankrupt; re-launch of Rossiya
33. ▷ Aeroflot Group (2019): Aeroflot, Rossiya, Pobeda, Aurora (the overall market share – 47%); ▷ S7 Group: S7 Airlines, Globus (the overall market share – 14%); ▷ For the comparison: HHI in the USA in 2018 – 1 157, in the UK – 2 757. Russian market has large groups of airlines The HHI indicates market concentration ▷ HHI below 100 indicates a highly competitive industry; ▷ HHI below 1 500 indicates an unconcentrated industry; ▷ HHI between 1 500 and 2 500 indicates moderate concentration; ▷ HHI above 2 500 indicates high concentration. 33 The higher the HHI, the less competitive market is ▷ The higher the prices are; ▷ The lower the quality of product is; ▷ The worse for a customer.
34. 3.3 RESULTS Russian air transport economic performance 34
35. Note: only direct contribution. Source: authors’ calculations on the basis of official financial reports; GDP of Russia – Russian Federal State Statistics Service 35 Indicators Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 GVA of Russian Airlines (million RUB) 85 063 75 606 74 352 110 744 114 056 146 636 180 442 161 155 224 005 238 277 235 757 227 634 GDP of Russia (million RUB) 33 247 513 41 276 849 38 807 219 46 308 541 60 282 541 68 163 883 73 133 895 79 199 658 83 387 192 85 917 806 91 843 154 104 335 014 GVA of Russian Airlines (million USD) 3 326 3 042 2 344 3 647 3 881 4 716 5 666 4 194 3 675 3 555 4 044 3 617 GDP of Russia (million USD) 1 299 899 1 660 686 1 223 311 1 524 852 2 051 306 2 192 258 2 296 342 2 061 326 1 367 947 1 281 688 1 575 403 1 658 048 Share of airline sector in GDP 0.2558% 0.1832% 0.1916% 0.2391% 0.1892% 0.2151% 0.2467% 0.2035% 0.2686% 0.2773% 0.2567% 0.2182% USD/RUB currency exchange rate 25.58 24.86 31.72 30.37 29.39 31.09 31.85 38.42 60.96 67.03 58.30 62.93 Gross Value Added of Russian airlines
36. ▷ Fluctuates from 0.1832% to 0.2773%; ▷ There is no increasing/decreasing trend; ▷ Since 2012 it has not been lower than 0.2%. Share of airline sector in the economy Additionally can be added cargo airlines ▷ There are not so many of them in Russia; ▷ They do not publish financial reports; ▷ Their direct economic impact in 2010 was about 12 473M Rubles. 36 Components* ▷ The most important element in GVA of airlines is compensation of employees; ▷ Only in 2014 Russian airlines had operating losses; ▷ Only in 2016 EBITDA of Russian airlines was higher than compensation of employees. Note: the description of components is on the slide 11
37. 37 Indicators Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 GVA of Russian Airports (million RUB) 26 748 35 082 33 387 41 740 50 483 75 842 85 666 100 675 106 888 112 609 135 048 164 443 GDP of Russia (million RUB) 33 247 513 41 276 849 38 807 219 46 308 541 60 282 541 68 163 883 73 133 895 79 199 658 83 387 192 85 917 806 91 843 154 104 335 014 GVA of Russian Airports (million USD) 1 046 1 411 1 052 1 374 1 718 2 439 2 690 2 620 1 753 1 680 2 317 2 613 GDP of Russia (million USD) 1 299 899 1 660 686 1 223 311 1 524 852 2 051 306 2 192 258 2 296 342 2 061 326 1 367 947 1 281 688 1 575 403 1 658 048 Share of airport sector in GDP 0.0805% 0.0850% 0.0860% 0.0901% 0.0837% 0.1113% 0.1171% 0.1271% 0.1282% 0.1311% 0.1470% 0.1576% USD/RUB currency exchange rate 25.58 24.86 31.72 30.37 29.39 31.09 31.85 38.42 60.96 67.03 58.30 62.93 Gross Value Added of Russian airports Note: only direct contribution. Source: authors’ calculations on the basis of official financial reports; GDP of Russia – Russian Federal State Statistics Service
38. ▷ Constantly increases; ▷ Has increased by 1.96 times since 2007; ▷ The lowest one was in 2007 – 0.0805%, the highest one in 2019 – 0.1576%. Share of airport sector in the economy Additionally can be organizations that provide infrastructure ▷ E.g. those that are responsible for air navigation services and air traffic control; ▷ One of the most important such organizations in Russia is FGUP ‘Goskorporatsiya po OrVD’; ▷ Its direct economic impact in 2019 was about 89 460M Rubles. 38 Components* ▷ The most important element in GVA of airlines is EBITDA; ▷ Subsidies to airports are not significant; ▷ Since 2014 EBITDA of Russian airports has been higher than compensation of employees. Note: the description of components is on the slide 11
39. 39 Indicators Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 GVA of Aviation Sector (million RUB) 111 811 110 688 107 739 152 484 164 540 222 478 266 107 261 830 330 893 350 886 370 805 392 077 GDP of Russia (million RUB) 33 247 513 41 276 849 38 807 219 46 308 541 60 282 541 68 163 883 73 133 895 79 199 658 83 387 192 85 917 806 91 843 154 104 335 014 GVA of Aviation Sector (million USD) 4 372 4 453 3 396 5 021 5 599 7 155 8 356 6 815 5 428 5 234 6 360 6 231 GDP of Russia (million USD) 1 299 899 1 660 686 1 223 311 1 524 852 2 051 306 2 192 258 2 296 342 2 061 326 1 367 947 1 281 688 1 575 403 1 658 048 Share of Aviation sector in GDP 0.3363% 0.2682% 0.2776% 0.3293% 0.2729% 0.3264% 0.3639% 0.3306% 0.3968% 0.4084% 0.4037% 0.3758% USD/RUB currency exchange rate 25.58 24.86 31.72 30.37 29.39 31.09 31.85 38.42 60.96 67.03 58.30 62.93 Gross Value Added of aviation sector Note: only direct contribution. Source: authors’ calculations on the basis of official financial reports; GDP of Russia – Russian Federal State Statistics Service
40. -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 GVA of Aviation Sector in RUB (% of increase over 2007) GDP of Russia in RUB (% of increase over 2007) Cumulative inflation rate in Russia (%) 40 % of increase over 2007 Source: authors’ calculations
41. Since 2007 (RUB): Stable growth of both the GVA of aviation sector and the GDP of Russia 41 The growth of the GVA of aviation sector has been more intensive since 2014 ▷ GVA of Aviation Sector has grown by 251%; ▷ The GDP of Russia has grown by 214%; ▷ Cumulative inflation is 129%.
42. -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 GVA of Aviation Sector in USD (% of increase over 2007) GDP of Russia in USD (% of increase over 2007) 42 % of increase over 2007 Source: authors’ calculations
43. The GDP of Russia in 2016 was 1% less than in 2007 In USD, both the GVA of aviation sector and the GDP of Russia fluctuate 43 Both indicators reached its peak in 2013, then there was a substantial fall
44. 44 % of increase over 2007 -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Share of the aviation sector in the GDP of Russia Source: authors’ calculations
45. In 2016 it reached peak at 120% of the 2007 level The share of the aviation sector in Russian economy increased since 2007 45 It dropped to 80% of the 2007 level in 2008, 2011
46. -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 GVA of Aviation Sector in RUB (% of increase over the previous year) Inflation rate in Russia (%) GDP of Russia in RUB (% of increase over the previous year) 46 % of increase over the previous year Source: authors’ calculations
47. The highest growth rates of the GVA were in 2010 (42%), 2012 (35%), 2015 (26%) The GVA of the aviation sector (RUB) fluctuates more than the GDP of Russia 47 The GVA of the aviation sector (RUB) increased every year, except 2009, 2014
48. 48 % of increase over the previous year -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 GVA of Aviation Sector in USD (% of increase over the previous year) GDP of Russia in USD (% of increase over the previous year) Source: authors’ calculations
49. The highest growth rates were in 2010 (48%), 2012 (28%) The GVA of the aviation sector (USD) differs considerably from (RUB) 49 The GVA of the aviation sector increased every year, except 2009, 2014-2016
50. 50 % of increase over the previous year -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Share of the aviation sector in the GDP of Russia Source: authors’ calculations
51. The fastest growth was in 2010, 2012, 2015 The share of the aviation sector in Russian economy fluctuates 51 It declined significantly in 2008, 2011 and 2014
52. 52 Indicators Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 GVA of Aviation Sector (million RUB) 238 178 249 936 255 749 357 385 381 716 503 342 605 268 601 556 760 229 806 162 851 927 900 799 GDP of Russia (million RUB) 33 247 513 41 276 849 38 807 219 46 308 541 60 282 541 68 163 883 73 133 895 79 199 658 83 387 192 85 917 806 91 843 154 104 335 014 GVA of Aviation Sector (million USD) 9 312 10 056 8 062 11 768 12 989 16 188 19 005 15 657 12 471 12 026 14 613 14 315 GDP of Russia (million USD) 1 299 899 1 660 686 1 223 311 1 524 852 2 051 306 2 192 258 2 296 342 2 061 326 1 367 947 1 281 688 1 575 403 1 658 048 Share of aviation sector in GDP 0.7164% 0.6055% 0.6590% 0.7717% 0.6332% 0.7384% 0.8276% 0.7595% 0.9117% 0.9383% 0.9276% 0.8634% USD/RUB currency exchange rate 25.58 24.86 31.72 30.37 29.39 31.09 31.85 38.42 60.96 67.03 58.30 62.93 Gross Value Added of aviation sector in Russia. Direct + Indirect contribution Source: authors’ calculations on the basis of official financial reports; GDP of Russia – Russian Federal State Statistics Service
53. ▷ Constantly increases; ▷ Has increased by 1.96 times since 2007; ▷ The lowest one was in 2007 – 0.0805%, the highest one in 2019 – 0.1576%. Share of airport sector in the economy GVA of aviation sector in Russia ▷ Has increased by 54% since 2007; ▷ Reached its peak in 2013 (+104% since 2007); ▷ In 2019, it is approximately equal to the GDP of Mauritius, Burkina Faso or Brunei . 53 The share of aviation sector in the GDP of Russia ▷ Has increased by 0.147 percentage points since 2007; ▷ Reached its peak in 2016 (0.9383%); ▷ Is a bit higher than “Hotel and restaurant sector” or 1/3 of “Education sector” . Note: the description of components is on the slide 11
54. Indicators Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Number of Passengers 46 800 000 51 400 000 46 600 000 56 950 735 64 121 536 74 032 689 84 564 353 93 180 376 92 071 065 88 559 231 105 052 171 116 196 917 GVA of Aviation Sector per passenger (RUB) 5 089 4 863 5 488 6 275 5 953 6 799 7 157 6 456 8 257 9 103 8 110 7 752 GVA of Aviation Sector per passenger (USD) 199 196 173 207 203 219 225 168 135 136 139 123 Passenger Turnover (thousand passenger- kilometers) 111 000 000 122 600 000 112 500 000 147 118 514 166 759 988 195 775 415 225 157 278 241 429 335 226 843 354 215 593 930 259 384 952 286 930 317 GVA of Aviation Sector per pass/km (RUB) 2.1457 2.0386 2.2733 2.4292 2.2890 2.5710 2.6882 2.4916 3.3513 3.7393 3.2844 3.1394 GVA of Aviation Sector per pass/km (USD) 0.0839 0.0820 0.0717 0.0800 0.0779 0.0827 0.0844 0.0649 0.0550 0.0558 0.0563 0.0499 54 Average Gross Value Added of one air transport passenger Note: direct + indirect contribution is considered Source: authors’ calculations
55. 2,15 2,04 2,27 2,43 2,29 2,57 2,69 2,49 3,35 3,74 3,28 3,14 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 55 GVA of Aviation Sector per passenger- kilometer (RUB) Note: direct+indirect contribution included; the graph for GVA per passenger is the same. Source: authors’ calculations.
56. In 2018, it is 3.14 RUB per pass/km or less than 5 cents (US) One pass/km contribution to Russian economy increased by 46%* since 2007 56 It increased by 50% in 2015-2016 (compared to 2014) Note: Cumulative inflation rate since 2007 is 129%.
57. 199 196 173 207 203 219 225 168 135 136 139 123 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 57 GVA of Aviation Sector per passenger (USD) Note: direct+indirect contribution included; the graph for GVA/pass km is the same. Source: authors’ calculations.
58. As of 2018, it is -38% from 2007 level (one passenger contributes 123 USD) There is a decreasing trend of average passenger contribution to the economy 58 It declined by 40% in 2014-2015 (compared to 2013)
59. 4. ANNEX Tables, tables, tables… 59
60. RUSSIAN CIVIL AVIATION PERFORMANCE IN 2010-2019 60
61. 61 Source: The Federal Agency for Air Transport (Rosaviatsiya), Transport Clearing House (TCH) Measures Units of Measurement Total (scheduled and non-scheduled services) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PASSENGER TURNOVER passenger-kilometers (000) 111 400 000 123 000 000 112 500 000 147 118 514 166 759 988 195 775 374 225 157 296 241 429 335 226 843 354 215 593 930 259 384 952 286 930 317 322 981 429 Passenger turnover includes: INTERNATIONAL SERVICES which includes: 61 500 000 67 800 000 63 400 000 87 524 299 100 403 788 124 324 507 147 278 866 152 549 963 127 605 211 111 469 450 144 807 729 160 854 725 187 578 917 between Russia and non-CIS countries 79 772 420 89 092 733 110 275 236 131 320 045 137 170 380 112 398 143 96 889 515 129 318 206 144 376 361 173 482 587 between Russia and CIS 7 751 879 11 311 055 14 049 271 15 958 822 15 379 583 15 207 067 14 579 935 15 489 523 16 478 364 14 096 331 DOMESTIC SERVICES which includes: 50 000 000 55 200 000 49 100 000 59 594 215 66 356 200 71 450 867 77 878 430 88 879 372 99 238 143 104 124 480 114 577 223 126 075 592 135 402 511 local services (within the same federal subject) 1 142 190 1 099 881 1 216 010 1 257 980 1 168 163 1 191 576 1 245 366 1 274 735 1 412 437 1 238 816 REVENUE TONNE-kilometers Tonne-km (000) 17 956 017 19 958 531 22 696 035 25 275 748 26 880 204 25 866 520 25 982 804 30 936 179 33 636 428 36 456 927 Revenue Tonne-kilometers includes: INTERNATIONAL SERVICES which includes: 11 699 021 13 015 172 15 217 513 17 238 822 17 903 084 16 122 943 15 758 832 19 731 860 21 398 286 23 362 080 between Russia and non-CIS countries 10 959 604 11 958 812 13 907 656 15 758 185 16 476 540 14 715 609 14 389 638 18 276 335 19 859 251 22 032 730 between Russia and CIS 739 417 1 056 360 1 309 857 1 480 636 1 426 543 1 407 333 1 369 193 1 455 525 1 539 035 1 329 350 DOMESTIC SERVICES which includes: 6 256 996 6 943 359 7 478 521 8 036 926 8 977 120 9 743 577 10 223 972 11 204 320 12 238 142 13 094 847 local services (within the same federal subject) 119 193 124 699 130 785 129 980 119 066 119 396 127 062 128 393 139 978 121 669 AIR CARGO TURNOVER Tonne-km (000) 4 715 351 4 950 132 5 076 251 5 011 591 5 151 564 5 450 618 6 579 350 7 591 534 7 812 699 7 388 599 Air Cargo Turnover includes: INTERNATIONAL SERVICES which includes: 3 821 834 3 978 831 4 028 308 3 983 724 4 173 587 4 638 474 5 726 581 6 699 164 6 921 360 6 479 978 between Russia and non-CIS countries 3 780 087 3 940 466 3 982 884 3 939 381 4 131 206 4 599 777 5 669 582 6 637 696 6 865 378 6 419 297 between Russia and CIS 41 748 38 365 45 423 44 342 42 381 38 697 56 999 61 468 55 982 60 680 DOMESTIC SERVICES which includes: 893 516 971 301 1 047 943 1 027 867 977 977 812 145 852 769 892 370 891 339 908 621 local services (within the same federal subject) 16 396 25 710 21 344 16 762 13 931 12 154 14 979 13 667 12 859 10 176 PASSENGER TRAFFIC Passengers 45 100 000 49 800 000 45 100 000 56 950 735 64 121 536 74 032 603 84 564 433 93 180 376 92 071 065 88 559 231 105 052 171 116 196 917 128 127 828 Passenger traffic includes: INTERNATIONAL SERVICES which includes: 20 300 000 22 400 000 21 300 000 27 731 918 31 383 877 38 627 196 45 331 961 46 911 125 39 507 817 32 161 745 42 484 417 47 368 730 55 067 602 between Russia and non-CIS countries 24 158 626 26 195 511 32 047 254 37 532 300 39 667 968 32 306 760 25 832 552 35 685 593 40 121 023 48 863 673 between Russia and CIS 3 573 292 5 188 366 6 579 942 7 799 661 7 243 157 7 201 057 6 329 193 6 798 824 7 247 707 6 203 929 DOMESTIC SERVICES which includes: 24 800 000 27 400 000 23 800 000 29 218 817 32 737 659 35 405 407 39 232 472 46 269 251 52 563 248 56 397 486 62 567 754 68 828 187 73 060 226 local services (within the same federal subject) 1 576 077 1 603 942 1 726 720 1 805 008 1 699 287 1 808 699 1 885 173 1 928 532 1 978 625 1 969 578 CARGO and MAIL Tonnes 732 200 779 100 712 200 926 416 981 485 987 847 1 001 470 1 036 479 1 064 165 976 970 1 130 753 1 175 821 1 147 213 Cargo and Mail includes: INTERNATIONAL SERVICES which includes: 439 300 522 000 486 600 662 971 684 723 673 161 684 660 735 859 806 300 705 282 842 614 881 755 836 872 between Russia and non-CIS countries 645 635 668 487 653 384 664 409 716 480 788 531 680 138 814 582 856 265 810 376 between Russia and CIS 17 336 16 235 19 777 20 251 19 379 17 768 25 143 28 031 25 489 26 496 DOMESTIC SERVICES which includes: 255 600 292 900 257 100 263 445 296 762 314 686 316 810 300 620 257 866 271 689 288 140 294 066 310 341 local services (within the same federal subject) 18 686 26 466 20 180 24 916 23 179 19 341 21 695 18 646 18 437 17 790 PASSENGER LOAD FACTOR % 78.2 77.2 78.3 79.5 79.8 79.7 81.1 83.2 83.8 83.9 Passenger Load Factor includes: INTERNATIONAL SERVICES which includes: 81.8 81.1 81.8 82.1 81.9 82.2 82.7 85.2 84.6 84.9 between Russia and non-CIS countries 82.9 81.7 82.4 83.0 82.6 82.9 82.9 85.6 84.8 85.1 between Russia and CIS 72.3 77.3 76.9 75.6 76.2 77.1 81.4 82.4 82.7 82.4 DOMESTIC SERVICES which includes: 73.5 71.9 73.0 75.0 76.4 76.6 79.5 80.7 82.8 82.6 local services (within the same federal subject) 64.2 56.6 56.3 64.7 67.2 65.6 63.6 63.7 65.3 65.3 REVENUE LOAD FACTOR % 66.4 64.8 65.6 66.6 66.9 66.4 67.7 69.0 70.9 69.5 Revenue Load Factor includes: INTERNATIONAL SERVICES which includes: 66.3 64.8 66.5 68.1 67.6 67.3 67.3 68.9 70.2 68.3 between Russia and non-CIS countries 66.6 64.7 66.6 68.5 67.8 67.5 67.3 68.9 70.2 68.3 between Russia and CIS 62.5 66.5 66.1 64.6 65.0 64.6 67.6 69.6 70.1 67.9 DOMESTIC SERVICES which includes: 66.6 64.9 63.8 63.4 65.8 65.1 68.3 69.2 72.2 71.6 local services (within the same federal subject) 69.1 64.4 49.9 63.3 66.5 69.1 66.6 65.5 66.1 67.2
62. TOTAL NUMBER OF PASSENGERS CARRIERD BY RUSSIAN AIRLINES IN 2007-2019 62
63. 63 Source: The Federal Agency for Air Transport (Rosaviatsiya), Transport Clearing House (TCH) AIRLINE TOTAL NUMBER OF PASSENGERS 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 AEROFLOT 8 166 230 9 271 433 8 755 471 11 285 781 14 173 777 17 656 152 20 902 447 23 610 036 26 111 728 28 977 880 32 845 182 35 762 452 37 220 668 AIR BASHKORTOSTAN 223 196 430 038 494 795 283 403 AK BARS AERO 161 556 254 785 371 784 387 892 ALROSA 285 903 278 685 228 725 240 792 257 793 261 341 346 366 421 493 440 647 520 220 491 845 ANGARA 113 483 228 448 291 690 387 093 416 310 416 351 396 548 422 088 ATLANT-SOYUZ 1 671 430 1 427 541 970 737 AURORA 265 271 326 284 1 050 637 1 124 792 1 376 224 1 548 221 1 622 679 1 657 741 AVIANOVA 1 302 460 1 048 946 AVIAPRAD 396 161 AZIMUTH 72 136 669 412 1 247 446 AZURAIR 214 748 2 354 038 2 344 322 3 747 710 4 236 952 5 788 726 DAGESTAN AIRLINES 335 483 282 130 262 675 354 830 337 920 DALAVIA 694 060 450 487 DOMODEDOVO AIRLINES 859 737 607 228 DONAVIA 956 768 1 314 351 1 210 296 1 385 862 864 050 985 682 1 353 574 1 736 153 1 475 011 GAZPROMAVIA 378 009 402 586 383 307 448 607 373 941 389 652 386 548 319 496 292 498 245 025 239 951 234 661 239 883 GLOBUS 596 755 1 057 202 1 092 617 1 472 135 1 942 782 2 154 312 2 127 931 2 422 259 3 637 451 4 305 231 4 361 048 3 898 870 GROZNY AVIA 176 700 135 149 I-FLY 383 689 410 403 632 792 1 046 166 970 368 611 091 403 856 746 641 INTERAVIA 255 051 352 197 IRAERO 198 844 247 543 268 761 271 051 234 818 373 873 669 599 908 505 IZHAVIA 174 566 241 563 327 800 267 253 307 641 397 225 422 879 241 938 KMV AVIA 604 367 604 508 553 292 591 934 415 816 KD AVIA 652 979 1 368 394 573 585 KOGALYMAVIA 408 036 350 182 251 339 528 862 348 285 733 773 1 187 785 1 344 174 895 721 KOMIAVAIATRANS 44 239 152 221 194 927 146 211 113 597 64 864 KRASAIR 1 675 751 1 218 358 KRASAVIA 108 891 203 386 260 483 314 241 283 533 225 738 KUBAN AIRLINES 589 291 674 834 547 579 666 454 900 364 MOSKOVIA 239 863 470 575 247 844 257 357 244 070 NORDAVIA 1 082 035 1 014 556 1 096 160 1 398 411 1 468 344 814 492 765 361 763 264 727 625 959 450 1 087 538 1 189 568 2 033 375 NORDSTAR 537 230 771 686 1 161 101 1 243 360 1 104 938 1 133 885 1 286 878 1 398 820 1 424 723 1 283 476 NORDWIND 859 817 1 193 882 1 721 639 2 167 267 3 655 688 4 471 030 2 665 553 1 788 452 3 548 210 4 921 715 5 535 177 ORENAIR 752 355 1 146 379 1 608 146 2 401 197 2 507 202 3 193 474 3 140 950 3 034 659 2 840 284 ORENBURZHIE 95 742 77 590 PEGASFLY 279 585 1 236 596 1 083 991 988 084 1 381 030 2 020 298 2 161 817 POBEDA 39 565 3 089 676 4 285 937 4 582 755 7 184 779 10 287 233 POLAR AIRLINES 100 694 212 574 112 278 108 229 POLET AIRLINES 179 746 270 130 338 123 311 886 RED WINGS 447 178 695 433 875 938 781 357 817 452 352 726 919 186 1 035 496 921 962 1 617 719 2 621 469 3 070 691 ROSSIYA 3 272 279 3 514 319 2 971 759 3 072 734 3 537 459 4 208 906 4 590 146 5 191 783 4 751 568 8 099 498 11 152 738 11 140 330 11 553 055 ROYAL FLIGHT 624 406 867 162 994 183 1 499 102 1 727 025 2 258 915 RUSLINE 238 769 405 467 600 299 566 754 626 155 580 454 606 940 640 575 655 920 635 371 S7 AIRLINES 5 697 974 5 892 548 5 025 862 4 834 964 5 128 319 6 351 010 7 084 599 7 938 199 8 208 508 9 509 018 9 947 624 11 598 533 14 046 452 SAMARA AIRLINES 350 132 SARATOV AIRLINES 224 337 253 228 234 375 337 279 376 651 322 338 412 524 519 096 525 632 504 185 796 386 SAT AIRLINES 232 213 294 401 298 442 SEVERSTAL 148 593 188 839 221 463 240 892 SILA 30 846 61 977 SKY EXPRESS 678 750 1 041 308 1 019 760 1 143 276 942 397 TATARSTAN AIRLINES 1 053 869 901 121 577 001 603 325 592 861 473 791 719 371 TRANSAERO 3 242 158 4 852 887 4 576 769 6 646 538 8 453 371 10 327 560 12 499 985 13 198 591 11 218 909 TULPAR 227 773 249 436 TURUKHAN 11 556 237 112 239 765 255 835 URAL AIRLINES 1 217 203 1 450 150 1 497 443 1 792 220 2 513 371 3 525 066 4 419 233 5 160 588 5 445 134 6 467 188 8 000 474 9 000 615 9 616 908 UTAIR 2 924 993 3 225 081 3 526 469 4 420 470 5 802 323 7 769 881 8 182 074 8 564 340 5 540 382 6 654 417 7 300 240 7 652 155 7 760 642 UTAIRCARGO 56 119 68 428 76 095 332 597 UTAIREXPRESS 544 868 691 894 331 499 335 821 UVTAERO 207 973 236 858 VIM AIRLINES 1 941 782 1 597 944 1 257 160 1 327 363 1 612 531 1 511 682 1 391 020 1 613 970 1 594 911 2 076 406 2 136 764 VLADIVOSTOK AIR 775 936 892 798 1 084 020 1 261 726 1 213 933 1 162 174 1 083 575 VOLGA-AVIAEXPRESS 182 155 YAKUTIA AIRLINES 420 017 547 475 661 817 903 283 1 018 999 1 145 630 1 098 909 968 026 634 289 688 838 865 661 853 193 713 150 YAMAL AIRLINES 354 327 481 226 440 311 501 865 565 311 912 944 1 301 242 1 450 355 1 425 103 1 454 456 1 790 178 1 966 568 1 746 224 TOTAL (ALL AIRLINES) 46 800 000 51 400 000 46 600 000 56 950 735 64 121 536 74 032 689 84 564 353 93 180 376 92 071 065 88 559 231 105 052 171 116 196 917 128 127 828
64. PASSENGER TURNOVER OF RUSSIAN AIRLINES IN 2007-2019 64
65. 65 Source: The Federal Agency for Air Transport (Rosaviatsiya), Transport Clearing House (TCH) AIRLINE PASSENGER TURNOVER (THOUSAND PASSENGER-KILOMETERS) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 AEROFLOT 24 675 329 27 247 454 25 986 194 34 777 154 42 020 865 50 532 518 60 226 342 67 121 707 74 115 874 82 693 270 91 809 931 97 955 797 101 640 146 AIR BASHKORTOSTAN 765 842 878 244 945 521 510 440 AK BARS AERO 154 221 277 597 472 995 490 100 ALROSA 701 603 680 385 555 188 585 412 598 117 655 043 914 257 1 089 910 1 157 728 1 441 421 1 356 781 ANGARA 80 924 225 495 292 912 432 053 476 012 445 696 404 134 413 052 ATLANT-SOYUZ 4 354 670 3 652 679 2 612 230 AURORA 250 688 356 430 1 745 049 1 869 742 2 221 781 2 363 653 2 488 548 2 385 542 AVIANOVA 1 536 850 1 406 887 AVIAPRAD 873 341 AVIASTAR-TU 390 722 AZIMUTH 128 716 1 022 921 1 712 637 AZURAIR 248 053 9 107 730 12 164 034 17 964 634 19 096 016 24 447 521 DAGESTAN AIRLINES 594 124 556 264 450 124 609 616 583 395 DALAVIA 2 654 601 1 559 535 DOMODEDOVO AIRLINES 3 845 344 2 567 633 DONAVIA 1 664 987 2 539 761 2 391 846 2 423 149 1 271 027 1 433 658 2 001 135 2 447 994 1 938 488 GAZPROMAVIA 768 683 876 385 781 200 815 186 697 512 756 307 743 874 619 359 541 483 462 178 453 273 447 592 465 429 GLOBUS 1 518 280 2 696 374 2 714 236 3 426 993 4 596 794 5 366 394 5 559 313 6 080 863 9 046 827 10 720 566 11 141 291 10 147 063 GROZNY AVIA 262 426 206 838 I-FLY 1 322 585 1 566 042 2 138 229 3 506 472 3 307 902 1 940 780 1 241 921 2 519 539 INTERAVIA 992 404 1 045 497 IRAERO 286 750 346 768 331 179 315 745 329 097 711 690 1 279 643 2 262 169 IZHAVIA 213 930 303 259 426 953 359 269 433 494 581 579 600 241 343 131 KMV AVIA 1 162 156 1 187 082 998 253 1 091 021 742 897 KD AVIA 1 191 805 2 284 610 997 776 KOGALYMAVIA 906 987 775 502 555 119 1 318 701 946 571 1 967 855 3 403 399 4 043 292 2 647 390 KOMIAVAIATRANS 19 465 149 974 220 745 156 759 115 392 58 702 KRASAIR 5 138 541 3 743 607 KRASAVIA 89 194 221 313 332 599 416 717 372 372 347 226 KUBAN AIRLINES 801 671 911 503 771 312 973 283 1 369 741 MOSKOVIA 513 375 622 636 1 312 010 650 929 677 832 642 354 NORDAVIA 1 538 821 1 374 831 1 528 376 1 972 410 2 240 168 1 055 878 993 200 971 093 974 731 1 416 723 1 614 610 1 744 638 3 444 938 NORDSTAR 464 958 1 564 613 2 228 125 3 015 574 3 358 092 2 868 556 2 599 432 2 814 417 3 059 841 3 458 429 3 179 134 NORDWIND 2 898 315 5 085 998 7 281 076 8 353 261 13 433 472 13 401 739 8 425 191 5 728 887 8 526 224 13 341 107 17 972 401 ORENAIR 1 656 019 3 031 465 4 940 265 7 158 799 7 500 285 10 505 213 10 983 780 8 471 008 6 348 659 ORENBURZHIE 42 824 39 373 PEGASFLY 1 271 766 6 059 880 4 868 476 5 091 468 6 313 162 7 263 052 6 307 089 POBEDA 50 325 4 668 439 6 712 920 7 929 383 13 105 170 18 527 010 POLAR AIRLINES 68 572 170 618 74 413 67 405 POLET AIRLINES 143 858 193 224 271 846 284 996 RED WINGS 1 093 719 2 020 548 2 436 867 2 162 486 2 163 917 769 340 1 417 829 1 757 147 1 732 564 3 148 643 5 713 847 6 953 630 ROSSIYA 6 792 259 7 808 677 6 149 638 6 242 488 7 190 945 8 761 024 9 186 257 10 147 404 8 694 979 18 719 614 28 118 584 29 600 545 33 695 781 ROYAL FLIGHT 2 044 016 2 920 041 4 410 665 6 524 289 7 513 673 9 583 335 RUSLINE 333 454 581 370 1 061 265 696 627 599 243 530 290 590 621 508 127 564 411 648 198 S7 AIRLINES 13 915 491 14 350 716 10 458 690 10 278 914 10 542 791 13 025 241 14 197 750 15 582 789 15 701 045 18 039 394 19 100 308 22 027 323 28 270 459 SAMARA AIRLINES 557 699 SARATOV AIRLINES 302 325 431 477 463 172 355 646 448 263 567 237 612 206 635 384 1 041 266 221 091 SAT AIRLINES 277 972 295 659 SEVERSTAL 108 038 162 721 153 290 217 850 SILA 15 180 27 897 SKY EXPRESS 878 303 1 332 082 1 458 067 1 659 846 1 422 154 TATARSTAN AIRLINES 2 293 230 1 859 049 985 675 1 163 231 1 185 666 1 017 614 1 753 983 TRANSAERO 11 758 761 17 548 908 18 732 965 26 294 003 33 179 927 41 003 887 47 018 186 47 066 421 35 584 398 TULPAR 321 143 304 413 TURUKHAN 5 388 219 593 190 652 219 277 URAL AIRLINES 2 997 970 3 947 546 4 035 426 4 841 036 6 832 808 9 548 267 11 768 176 13 327 154 13 124 658 15 344 678 19 196 918 21 697 960 23 387 609 UTAIR 4 509 629 5 063 116 5 827 926 7 982 029 11 119 341 15 166 155 16 769 794 20 198 948 9 994 954 10 847 393 11 731 603 12 436 235 12 994 003 UTAIRCARGO 39 115 45 996 43 974 373 896 UTAIREXPRESS 674 677 867 582 280 420 239 605 UVTAERO 293 451 344 498 VIM AIRLINES 505 695 VLADIVOSTOK AIR 5 293 939 4 455 198 3 214 073 3 977 915 3 961 248 3 472 582 3 075 973 3 389 297 3 264 042 4 907 705 5 809 177 VOLGA-AVIAEXPRESS 2 446 955 2 943 080 3 875 063 4 755 566 4 534 844 3 134 214 2 520 848 YAKUTIA AIRLINES 1 135 204 1 600 219 2 244 004 3 028 864 3 374 834 3 586 342 3 286 344 2 512 343 1 593 852 1 808 139 2 248 662 2 423 774 2 122 414 YAMAL AIRLINES 463 880 743 451 757 988 842 289 986 543 1 718 502 2 553 012 2 899 723 2 956 120 2 908 392 3 683 124 3 980 613 3 513 938 TOTAL (ALL AIRLINES) 111 000 000 122 600 000 112 500 000 147 118 514 166 759 988 195 775 415 225 157 278 241 429 335 226 843 354 215 593 930 259 384 952 286 930 317 322 981 429
66. PASSENGER LOAD FACTOR OF RUSSIAN AIRLINES IN 2010-2019 66
67. 67 Source: The Federal Agency for Air Transport (Rosaviatsiya), Transport Clearing House (TCH) AIRLINE PASSENGER LOAD FACTOR, % 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 AEROFLOT 77.2 77.5 77.9 78.8 78.2 79.3 81.3 81.8 80.5 79.2 AIR BASHKORTOSTAN 87.4 76.2 77.4 81.5 AK BARS AERO 60.3 64.2 68.8 67.5 ALROSA 65.3 69.3 70.6 73.9 78.3 82.1 ANGARA 68.2 65.5 70.0 70.4 77.4 77.5 79.6 76.2 AURORA 60.0 65.8 75.1 71.6 73.0 72.8 75.2 71.2 AVIANOVA 77.9 75.8 AZIMUTH 75.5 82.6 86.1 AZUR AIR 69.5 93.7 94.8 96.6 95.9 95.8 DAGESTAN AIRLINES 74.0 70.7 DONAVIA 79.1 68.7 69.6 66.3 73.9 71.3 GAZPROMAVIA 52.2 49.8 54.7 53.0 59.9 61.3 58.5 59.5 60.3 61.6 GLOBUS 76.8 77.5 81.4 82.5 80.9 80.8 83.7 84.7 GROZNY AVIA 80.9 79.4 I-FLY 91.9 89.4 90.6 89.4 89.9 86.2 83.0 90.7 IRAERO 66.5 68.3 72.3 70.3 62.6 65.4 70.5 77.5 IZHAVIA 60.7 75.0 77.1 78.6 79.6 78.2 76.3 79.3 KMV AVIA 68.3 73.5 KOGALYMAVIA 82.9 81.2 89.0 89.0 90.3 91.9 KOMIAVAIATRANS 59.3 68.2 69.9 65.6 63.5 63.7 KRASAVIA 46.8 56.3 63.8 64.8 66.2 64.8 KUBAN AIRLINES 60.7 71.5 MOSKOVIA 82.1 84.9 88.4 85.7 NORDAVIA 72.6 69.6 70.0 73.6 75.1 69.8 76.0 74.9 78.6 84.1 NORDSTAR 76.8 72.8 73.9 76.1 74.3 71.2 74.2 78.8 77.6 78.3 NORDWIND 91.0 87.4 89.2 87.5 91.4 91.9 90.5 85.7 89.4 90.6 ORENAIR 96.9 95.0 85.7 82.0 78.6 72.9 ORENBURZHIE 59.1 57.0 PEGAS FLY 90.6 87.3 84.6 83.7 89.6 88.5 83.4 POBEDA 62.0 81.2 88.3 94.2 94.1 94.0 POLAR AIRLINES 65.2 68.9 55.1 58.1 POLET AIRLINES 69.9 67.4 71.3 72.6 RED WINGS 85.6 86.4 77.8 72.0 74.1 79.0 85.4 83.3 86.3 89.3 ROSSIYA 75.3 75.3 77.5 76.3 75.6 75.7 81.7 84.4 86.6 85.3 ROYAL FLIGHT 90.6 91.7 92.4 93.4 94.1 94.5 RUSLINE 69.5 67.6 77.0 70.5 68.4 66.5 65.5 65.9 69.8 69.4 S7 AIRLINES 76.5 75.6 80.0 80.9 79.9 80.3 85.2 85.2 86.5 86.4 SARATOV AIRLINES 83.6 81.4 85.7 88.7 84.8 86.4 81.7 82.4 62.8 SAT AIRLINES 65.5 65.1 SEVERSTAL 53.4 52.8 47.0 63.1 SILA 65.8 72.6 SKY EXPRESS 75.7 80.1 TATARSTAN AIRLINES 74.6 73.7 73.2 83.9 TRANSAERO 83.7 82.9 82.5 83.6 83.5 85.6 TULPAR 69.2 75.7 TURUKHAN 65.7 64.0 57.5 61.0 URAL AIRLINES 68.3 70.1 71.8 74.3 75.0 75.0 78.3 82.6 82.3 82.4 UTAIR 77.0 73.1 74.2 76.8 80.0 69.9 71.9 75.9 79.9 82.1 UTAIR CARGO 99.3 99.4 99.3 69.5 UTAIR EXPRESS 74.4 69.9 67.5 64.7 UVT AERO 74.0 73.9 VIM AIRLINES 82.1 75.8 81.3 82.0 75.8 73.0 73.9 76.4 VLADIVOSTOK AIR 75.2 70.9 67.3 69.4 YAKUTIA AIRLINES 73.9 71.9 74.2 73.7 75.3 75.4 82.1 82.4 77.1 72.4 YAMAL AIRLINES 66.1 63.6 67.1 72.2 72.6 72.6 67.6 70.2 71.4 73.8 TOTAL (ALL AIRLINES) 78.2 77.2 78.3 79.5 79.8 79.7 81.1 83.2 83.8 83.9
68. RUSSIAN AIRPORTS PERFORMANCE IN 2008-2019 68
69. 69 Source: The Federal Agency for Air Transport (Rosaviatsiya), Transport Clearing House (TCH) № Airport IATA Passenger Turnover (thousand passenger-kilometers) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1 Moscow - Sheremetyevo SVO 15 066 354 14 606 620 19 123 007 22 555 300 26 188 547 28 974 815 31 259 662 31 279 508 33 655 605 39 641 443 45 348 150 49 438 545 2 Moscow - Domodedovo DME 20 437 516 18 674 947 22 253 529 25 701 610 28 165 657 30 765 078 33 039 531 30 504 515 28 500 259 30 657 854 29 403 704 28 252 337 3 Moscow - Vnukovo VKO 7 923 220 7 730 292 9 460 303 8 197 162 9 699 450 11 175 142 12 733 118 15 815 129 13 946 688 18 138 865 21 478 486 24 001 521 4 Saint Petersburg - Pulkovo LED 7 070 770 6 756 751 8 391 281 9 610 767 11 154 560 12 854 366 14 264 732 13 501 454 13 265 037 16 125 520 18 123 064 19 581 262 5 Sochi AER 1 575 312 1 375 014 1 914 983 2 086 332 2 120 377 2 425 681 3 065 644 4 076 509 5 248 800 5 681 974 6 343 869 6 760 567 6 Novosibirsk - Tolmachevo OVB 1 941 483 1 684 310 2 131 445 2 765 884 3 266 745 3 592 285 3 829 667 3 600 291 3 932 368 4 809 605 5 721 367 6 571 396 7 Yekaterinburg - Koltsovo SVX 2 437 919 2 092 602 2 697 208 3 355 883 3 783 069 4 253 202 4 473 239 4 170 737 4 207 328 5 277 434 5 953 782 6 232 318 8 Simferopol SIP n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 2 685 269 5 017 758 5 201 690 5 128 743 5 146 095 5 140 000 9 Krasnodar KRR 1 609 406 1 570 973 2 093 533 2 511 384 2 599 145 2 853 394 3 420 385 3 121 630 2 993 290 3 494 987 4 160 053 4 630 770 10 Ufa UFA 1 295 876 1 180 909 1 460 009 1 688 570 1 918 945 2 186 579 2 356 467 2 291 502 2 295 446 2 794 407 3 222 825 3 556 533 11 Kazan KZN 763 846 675 721 958 530 1 226 800 1 486 904 1 847 258 1 942 408 1 794 735 1 912 961 2 623 423 3 141 776 3 470 742 12 Vladivostok VVO 1 003 850 988 862 1 263 024 1 457 000 1 624 000 1 830 047 1 772 370 1 678 628 1 828 837 2 171 922 2 633 630 3 079 344 13 Rostov-on-Don RVI/ROV 1 257 261 1 137 776 1 438 643 1 716 680 1 873 644 2 189 439 2 340 295 2 061 016 2 093 260 2 532 266 3 236 000 3 060 000 14 Samara KUF 1 391 884 1 260 039 1 535 041 1 740 641 1 890 483 2 146 004 2 359 133 2 193 744 2 083 173 2 631 729 3 056 610 2 999 252 15 Mineralnye Vody MRV 827 764 701 914 888 106 966 716 1 279 539 1 472 836 1 921 453 1 957 121 1 721 697 2 180 178 2 409 488 2 526 419 16 Krasnoyarsk - Yemelyanovo KJA 1 001 303 955 857 1 216 059 1 633 098 1 900 000 2 044 014 2 045 249 1 788 754 1 796 373 2 258 634 2 517 298 2 481 914 17 Irkutsk IKT 1 042 357 854 538 1 039 652 1 257 804 1 400 265 1 527 203 1 661 261 1 635 478 1 652 799 1 973 584 2 181 998 2 433 794 18 Kaliningrad KGD 1 924 543 1 356 663 1 024 009 1 229 017 1 188 000 1 367 263 1 460 060 1 533 057 1 570 821 1 788 097 2 149 413 2 370 157 19 Khabarovsk KHV 1 095 780 1 046 093 1 364 369 1 596 212 1 883 952 1 973 005 1 924 253 1 716 333 1 795 400 2 047 092 2 134 476 2 185 051 20 Tyumen - Roshchino TJM 905 576 785 061 967 829 1 084 419 1 239 378 1 372 621 1 369 094 1 399 264 1 518 076 1 822 909 1 978 979 2 039 007 21 Surgut SGC 1 013 179 932 789 1 093 256 1 201 468 1 167 640 1 311 730 1 353 287 1 416 846 1 482 752 1 721 044 1 752 278 1 866 416 22 Chelyabinsk CEK 677 865 573 587 658 251 833 786 1 000 753 1 197 747 1 394 142 1 229 435 1 188 865 1 469 769 1 640 535 1 713 532 23 Perm PEE 681 411 569 993 749 455 874 889 994 050 1 148 921 1 315 144 1 284 970 1 124 493 1 338 373 1 519 617 1 647 005 24 Anapa AAQ 574 978 510 574 576 997 520 580 586 829 738 908 1 005 383 1 178 984 1 418 070 1 362 793 1 487 382 1 641 376 25 Makhachkala MCX n/a n/a n/a 417 793 422 907 495 199 421 145 706 912 869 471 1 067 684 1 295 353 1 500 690 26 Omsk OMS 594 692 495 747 614 037 773 656 871 998 961 122 1 037 808 881 186 819 932 948 248 1 088 926 1 348 505 27 Volgograd VOG 456 643 382 516 471 014 544 447 565 000 687 628 757 748 901 522 811 516 1 013 823 1 142 878 1 214 216 28 Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk UUS 663 086 630 323 748 746 773 243 836 960 851 423 853 597 849 211 942 730 985 211 1 064 853 1 209 161 29 Nizhny Novgorod GOJ 356 362 299 721 376 799 461 424 747 165 910 015 1 126 755 946 334 775 679 961 491 1 134 534 1 114 056 30 Murmansk MMK 403 828 378 171 466 805 550 311 545 073 614 024 667 065 751 258 763 668 845 928 938 022 1 029 661 Total TOP-35 airports 78 854 485 73 039 918 90 099 873 102 875 709 116 206 751 129 933 633 143 870 447 145 116 061 145 156 121 169 641 163 187 763 777 199 583 591
70. Author of the slides ▪ Oleg A. Gerasimov 70 The reference to source is obligatory if you use materials of these slides: Chsherbakov, V. S., & Gerasimov, O. A. (2019). Air Transport in Russia and Its Impact on the Economy. Tomsk State University Journal of Economics, (48), 283–304. doi: 10.17223/19988648/48/20 Any questions? Please, write to air.rus.gdp@gmail.com LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/geroleum