Upgrade to Pro — share decks privately, control downloads, hide ads and more …

A 21st Century Nigerian Publishing Industry Needs 21st Century Global Solutions

Giac
May 02, 2019
5.7k

A 21st Century Nigerian Publishing Industry Needs 21st Century Global Solutions

This presentation is a version of the StreetLib-TNPS presentation
"A 21st Century African Publishing Industry Needs 21st Century Global Solutions"
(March 2019) adjusted with a focus on Nigeria for the 19th Nigerian International Book Fair in May 2019.

Giac

May 02, 2019
Tweet

Transcript

  1. A 21st Century Nigerian Publishing Industry
    Needs 21st Century Global Solutions
    for the 19th Nigerian International Book Fair #nibfng

    View full-size slide

  2. N.B. This presentation is a version of the StreetLib-TNPS presentation
    "A 21st Century African Publishing Industry Needs 21st Century Global Solutions"
    (March 2019) adjusted with a focus on Nigeria for the
    19th Nigerian International Book Fair in May 2019.

    View full-size slide

  3. The Global Book Market was worth
    $143 billion in 2016.
    The good news?
    71% of that was outside the USA.
    Global Book Market 2016 (1)
    Rest of the World
    71%
    Usa
    29%

    View full-size slide

  4. The bad news?
    Less than 1% of that was Africa.
    Global Book Market 2016 (2)
    Rest of the World
    99%
    AFRICA
    1%

    View full-size slide

  5. It's not that a $1 billion Africa book market is unimpressive.
    But it's less than 1% of the global book market,
    despite Africa having 17% of the world's population.
    The good news is, both the global book market and
    the Africa book market are growing fast.
    Let's take a closer look.

    View full-size slide

  6. 2016 2025
    400
    300
    200
    100
    0
    Global Book Market
    Growth
    2016-2025 $bn (3)
    143
    356

    View full-size slide

  7. Predicting book market growth is not an exact science, so
    while we cannot take these predictions as gospel,
    we can take them as indicative.
    Most of the growth will be happening outside the USA.
    China and India will account for much of it, as will the rest
    of the world. Including Africa.

    View full-size slide

  8. But digital will be the main driver of that growth.
    So where does that leave Africa?

    View full-size slide

  9. 2016 2025
    1.5
    1
    0.5
    0
    Africa's book market could
    grow by 50% if we carry
    on as we are.
    1
    1.5
    Africa Book Market Growth
    2016-2025 $bn (4)

    View full-size slide

  10. But it's 2019, not 2009.
    Carrying on as we are while the rest of the
    global publishing industry embraces digital
    and leaves us behind is not an option.
    Nigeria's children desrve better.
    Africa's children deserve better.

    View full-size slide

  11. Here's what might happen if the African
    publishing industry actively
    embraced the digital opportunity

    View full-size slide

  12. 2016 2025
    5
    4
    3
    2
    1
    0
    Africa Book Market Growth
    2016-2025 $bn (5)
    1
    5
    Imagine an Africa book
    market worth $5 billion.
    500% growth!

    View full-size slide

  13. To understand why such growth is possible with digital we
    need first to understand why the Africa book market is so
    under-developed today.
    For brevity, and to distinguish it from the digital opportunity,
    we'll refer to the current model as the analogue model.
    It's not strictly scientific but will help keep the two models
    clear in our mind.

    View full-size slide

  14. The "analogue publishing model" is the one we all
    know and love.
    Beautiful printed books on paper.
    We all love printed books!
    Don't see this as an anti-print diatribe!

    View full-size slide

  15. But... Printed books are expensive to produce,
    expensive to distribute, and expensive to store.
    And if that's true of mature, wealthy book markets like the
    USA, how much more so in Nigeria and across Africa?

    View full-size slide

  16. Why is the Africa book market so under-developed?
    History is partly to blame.
    Colonialism and the post-colonial legacy, of course.
    And many missed opportunities since.
    But we can't rewrite history, so let's move on.

    View full-size slide

  17. Africa is massive.
    Truly massive.
    Africa is as big as the USA, China, India,
    Japan and all of Europe combined.

    View full-size slide

  18. It's such a vast continent that it's no wonder it's not been
    possible to develop a pan-African publishing industry.
    The cold reality is that it's easier for a publisher in Nigeria,
    Kenya or Benin to sell a book in the USA or France than it is
    to sell the same book in neighbouring Cameroon, Tanzania
    or Togo.
    Or even to different parts of the same country.
    But we can't change the size of Africa, so let's move on.

    View full-size slide

  19. Low literacy levels across the African continent have held back the
    publishing industry, of course.
    Low literacy equals low book sales.
    More books in schools will encourage children to read.
    But many schools only have text books.

    View full-size slide

  20. Very few children have books at home.
    Many people who can read do not do so.
    Books are expensive and the few books that are available
    do not excite them.

    View full-size slide

  21. But people would read more if:
    they were offered free books to get them started and hook them on reading
    they were offered a better choice of books
    they were offered affordable books
    they were offered books in the language they speak at home
    they were offered comics and graphic novels
    they were offered books they could listen to
    Under the analogue publishing model none of those are viable options at scale across Africa.

    View full-size slide

  22. But all those options are viable across Africa
    with the digital model.
    Digital changes everything.

    View full-size slide

  23. Digital changes everything?
    That's a bold statement. But true.
    While African publishers have (mostly) been looking the other way,
    publishers in the rest of the world have been enjoying the benefits of
    digital books for over a decade.

    View full-size slide

  24. Statista reports that in 2017 in the USA the
    trade ebook market alone saw 266 million
    sales and was worth $1.02 billion equivalent
    to the entire African book market.
    Statista's 2019 forecast for the entire US ebook market is a valuation of $5.487 billion.
    (7)
    (6)

    View full-size slide

  25. Digital library supplier Rakuten OverDrive delivers ebooks and
    digital audiobooks to consumers in the US and globally.
    In 2018 OverDrive handled 277 million digital book downloads.
    That's 750,000 every day.
    185 million ebooks and 88 million audiobooks were borrowed
    from OverDrive libraries in 2018. (8)

    View full-size slide

  26. Tiny Singapore - population 5.6 million - was among
    65 libraries worldwide that saw
    over 1 million digital book downloads.
    In Canada - population 33 million - over
    5.6 million digital books were borrowed from the
    Toronto library in 2018.

    View full-size slide

  27. In 2019 Storytel operates in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Iceland,
    Netherlands, Poland, Russia, Spain, India,
    United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Italy, Mexico, Bulgaria amd Singapore.
    It will launch in Brazil and Germany shortly.
    Storytel expects to have over 1 million subscribers by end 2019. (9)
    Storytel is a digital audiobook and ebook
    subscription service based in Sweden.

    View full-size slide

  28. In China ebooks and online literature is big business.
    In 2017 the Chinese media giant Tencent spun off its ebook
    arm China Literature in an IPO worth $1 billion - equivalent
    to the entire African book market. (10)

    View full-size slide

  29. There are countless more examples, but let's address
    the BIG problem with all this.
    We're talking about Africa.
    There's hardly anyone online here!
    Internet penetration is only at 35.9%! Why bother?

    View full-size slide

  30. Here's why.
    This is the 2018 map of submarine
    internet cables
    connecting Africa with the world.
    (11)

    View full-size slide

  31. And here's what that means.

    View full-size slide

  32. Statista forecasts the New Zealand ebook market will be
    worth $37 million in 2019. (12)
    New Zealand's online population? 4.2 million. (13)

    View full-size slide

  33. All these African nations have more people
    online than New Zealand. (14)
    Angola
    7 million
    Cameroon
    6.1 million
    Côte d’Ivoire
    6.3 million
    D.R. Congo
    5 million
    Mozambique
    5.3 million
    Tunisia
    7.9 million
    Zambia
    7.2 million
    Zimbabwe
    6.8 million

    View full-size slide

  34. Ghana, Mali, Senegal and Sudan (14)
    all have more people online than
    Sweden (15), the home of Storytel. 9.6 million
    10.1 million 12.5 million 9.7 million 11.8 million

    View full-size slide

  35. Statista forecasts the Netherlands ebook market
    will be worth $94 million in 2019. (16)
    The Netherlands has 16.3 million
    people online. (15)
    Algeria and Ethiopia both have
    more. (14)
    Algeria
    21 million
    Ethiopia
    16.4 million

    View full-size slide

  36. Statista forecasts the Australia ebook market
    will be worth $89 million in 2019. (17)
    Australia has 21.7 million people
    online. (13)
    Here's how Morocco, Tanzania
    and Uganda compare. (14)
    Morocco
    22.5 million
    Uganda
    19 million
    Tanzania
    23 million

    View full-size slide

  37. Statista forecasts the Canada
    ebook market will be worth
    $521 million in 2019. (18)
    Canada has 33.2 million people online.
    (19) South Africa will soon have more
    people online than Canada.
    South Africa
    31.1 million and only at 34%
    internet penetration. (14)

    View full-size slide

  38. Statista forecasts the Spain
    ebook market will be worth
    $135 million in 2019. (20)
    Spain has 42.9 million
    people online. (15)
    Kenya
    43.3 million. (14)

    View full-size slide

  39. Statista forecasts the Italy
    ebook market will be worth
    $128 million in 2019. (21)
    Italy has 54.8 million
    people online. (15)
    Egypt
    49.2 million. (14)

    View full-size slide

  40. Statista ebook market value forecasts for 2019
    France $533 m
    (22)
    France has
    60.4 million online
    Germany $294 m
    (23)
    Germany has
    72.3 million online
    UK $820 m
    (24)
    UK has
    63 million online
    (15)

    View full-size slide

  41. E-Learning (digital education) is one sector where some African
    countries are doing well.
    eKitabu in Kenya leads the way.
    Nigeria has nothing comparable.

    View full-size slide

  42. In South Africa e-Learning (digital education)
    is expected to bring in revenues of
    $490 million (NGN 176 billion) by 2023.

    View full-size slide

  43. New research by arcognizance.com
    forecasts a global
    digital books market
    in 2023 worth
    $35 billion (NGN 13 trillion).

    View full-size slide

  44. Which brings us to Nigeria, widely recognised as the powerhouse
    economy of the African continent. Books? Not so much.
    It's not that Nigeria is devoid of talented authors and
    prestigious publishers. Far from it.
    Chimamanda Adichie and Wole Soyinka are among
    countless world class Nigerian authors.
    Publishing houses like Casava Republic and Farafina
    are among many that have international reputations.

    View full-size slide

  45. Is Nigeria embracing the digital opportunity?
    Yes and no.
    On the one hand we have numerous Nigerian online
    stores that sell books to some degree.
    We have Nigeria's Okada Books, the biggest ebook store
    on the continent.
    We have Nigeria's Publiseer, Africa's foremost digital
    aggregator.

    View full-size slide

  46. Yet the largest of these, Okada has only 25,000 tiles available.
    "Only?"
    Yes, when we're talking Nigeria, a country of 200 million people,
    It's a great starting point, but woefully inadequate to meet
    the literary needs of a population of this size.
    That's not in anyway to denigrate the fantastic
    achievement of Ofili Okechukwu, rather to make the point
    that this is just the tip of the digital opportunity iceberg.

    View full-size slide

  47. The tip of the iceberg?
    Well, let's remind ourselves of those figures for the
    UK, France and Germany.

    View full-size slide

  48. Statista ebook market value forecasts for 2019
    France $533 m
    (22)
    France has
    60.4 million online
    Germany $294 m
    (23)
    Germany has
    72.3 million online
    UK $820 m
    (24)
    UK has
    63 million online
    (15)

    View full-size slide

  49. But isn't that exactly the problem?
    60 million people online in France?
    63 million in the UK?
    72 million people online in Germany?
    Nigeria is only at 55.5% internet penetration.
    Africa itself is at just 35.9% internet penetration.
    How can Nigeria, let alone Africa, compete? Consider this:
    .

    View full-size slide

  50. Nigeria's 55.5% internet penetration means that, as of March 2019,
    there are over 111 million Nigerians online.
    That's almost 40 million more internet users than Germany!
    In fact Nigeria has more people online than
    any country in Europe - even Russia.
    It is the 7th largest country in the world by internet
    users and set to leapfrog Japan into 6th place this year.

    View full-size slide

  51. 111 million people online is a huge domestic market that Nigeria's
    publishing industry could be tapping into. That's 111 million people who
    could be buying digital books from Nigerian authors and publishers.
    Yet few publishers in Nigeria are rising to this
    opportunity. Let alone seeing the bigger picture of
    opportunity digital brings beyond the domestic market.

    View full-size slide

  52. The bigger picture?
    In Nigeria in the year 2000 there were just 200,000 Nigerians online.
    Today it's 111 million.
    In the Year 2000 there were just 4.5 million Africans online.
    In 2019 there are 474 million Africans online. (14)

    View full-size slide

  53. Remember earlier, we noted that it's easier for a publisher in Nigeria, Kenya or Benin
    to sell a book in the USA or France than it is to sell the same book in neighbouring
    Cameroon, Tanzania or Togo. Or even to different parts of the same country.
    With digital anyone anywhere on the African continent can buy a book from Nigeria,
    Kenya or Benin... or from Zambia or Mali or Ethiopia or... All they need is an internet
    connection, a Pan-African ebook store and... and yes, this is the big one... and the
    books to be available in digital format.

    View full-size slide

  54. And if you're thinking that 111 million Nigerians online and 474
    million Africans online is not incentive enough to digitise, consider
    that that same ebook or digital audiobook that can be made
    available across Nigeria and across the entirety of Africa can also
    be simultaneously available across the world.
    How many people online in the world?
    First let's put that 474 million Africans online in context.

    View full-size slide

  55. Incredible, but true.
    There are more people online in Africa
    than in Latin America, the EU or North
    America.
    And there are 160 million more people
    online in Africa than in the USA.
    (26)
    Africa
    Latin
    Am
    erica
    European
    U
    nion
    N
    orth
    Am
    erica
    U
    SA
    500
    400
    300
    200
    100
    0
    474
    438
    433
    345
    312

    View full-size slide

  56. And Africa is still only at 35.9% internet penetration.
    Which means there's still plenty of room to grow.
    The question is, by how much?

    View full-size slide

  57. Internet take-up is closely correlated to smartphone use.
    (And smartphones are great for ebooks and digital audiobooks!)
    Here's how Africa's smartphone future looks.

    View full-size slide

  58. Taking smartphone growth, improved telecom
    infrastructure and falling internet prices together it's
    reasonable to predict the growth we've seen between the
    year 2000-2018 will not slow any time soon.
    Given the close correlation of smartphone growth to date
    it's reasonable to assume that by 2025 we could be
    looking at 800 million Africans online. (28)

    View full-size slide

  59. Africa 2018 Africa 2025
    800
    600
    400
    200
    0
    Internet Users Africa
    2019-2025
    474m
    800m

    View full-size slide

  60. Which leaves the question how many internet users
    worldwide could be accessing Nigerian digital books in 2019,
    and how many more might to do so in, say, 2025 or 2030?
    Well, the Africa, EU, Latin America and North America
    numbers we looked at above amount to just shy of 1.7 billion.
    But that's not even half the world's online population.

    View full-size slide

  61. 4.3 million people online.
    That's the potential reach of digital publishing in 2019.
    And here's the likely digital reach in 2025 and in 2030.

    View full-size slide

  62. In this brief overview we've had to leave out so much.
    No mention here of Amazon's ebook subscription service Kindle Unlimited,
    or Scribd (which earlier this year topped 1 million subscribers) or
    24Symbols or Legimi or....
    We touched on Storytel but didn't mention other audiobook services like
    Audible, Ubook, Booklava, Kitab Sawti, and Africa's very own AkooBooks.
    There are countless more.

    View full-size slide

  63. But there's much more to publishing than just trade,
    of course.
    Not least the education and library sectors.
    In both cases digitisation is in danger of outpacing publishers
    as publishers continue to be overly-cautious in embracing
    the digital opportunity unfolding.
    Yet both sectors present exciting new opportunities for growth.

    View full-size slide

  64. We've seen rapid advances in Nigeria's "e-Education" sector this past few
    years and we can expect much more in the next decade. This is a golden
    opportunity for Nigerian publishers to open up new revenue streams.
    The same can be said for digital libraries, where digitised public libraries,
    alongside university libraries, will bring new reach to Nigerian publishers,
    not just within Nigeria but across Africa and beyond.

    View full-size slide

  65. Nor is digital limited to text and audio.
    Digital comics are big business around the world.
    Then there's cookery books, photography...
    And there are countless new digital variants
    emerging that give publishers more reach,
    more revenue and more possibilities.

    View full-size slide

  66. Nana Gyan Apenteng, President of the Ghana Writers Association,
    famously said last year:
    "Of course, we would all claim that we are reading on our phones but
    that is largely untrue…unless reading WhatsApp messages can be
    described as reading."
    Yet in the rest of the world readers are lapping up digital books
    alongside WhatsApp messages and, yes, alongside print books.

    View full-size slide

  67. IT'S NOT AN EITHER / OR DEBATE.
    Printed books and comics and their digital counterparts can comfortably co-exist.
    And best of all, digital is language agnostic.
    Digital books, comics and audio can be created in all Africa's myriad and beautiful
    languages, and distributed to eager readers in huge cities, suburban townships and, just
    as easily, in the remotest villages.
    No minimum print runs. No printing costs. at all. No warehousing.
    No costly distribution to a handful of bookstores. No remainders.

    View full-size slide

  68. No minimum print runs.
    No printing costs at all.
    No warehousing.
    No costly distribution to a handful of bookstores.
    No remainders.
    Backlist permanently available for sale 24/7.

    View full-size slide

  69. Easy and virtually free potential reach to the
    474 million Africans online today
    (800 million by 2025).
    And globally to more than 4 billion potential customers
    (over 5 billion by 2025 - over 7 billion by 2030)
    who are going online daily around the world.

    View full-size slide

  70. Digital is an opportunity not just for publishers but for a raft of industries
    that revolve around publishing.
    From content creators to librarians to educationalists to the creative
    industries like film and television. Just look at the way books are driving TV
    and film production globally.
    Digital publishing will not just benefit publishers, but will power the
    Nigerian and African economy,

    View full-size slide

  71. That is the Nigerian and
    African publishing industry's
    digital opportunity.

    View full-size slide

  72. This presentation by StreetLib & The New Publishing Standard is intended to help
    further the debate about the digital opportunity in African publishing in the
    run-up to the IPA Regional Seminar in Nairobi.
    It is for the benefit of all stakeholders in the Nigerian
    and African publishing industry.
    StreetLib is committed to a building a truly inclusive, global publishing industry
    that embraces all countries and peoples, all languages, and all publishing sectors
    and publishing formats.

    View full-size slide

  73. StreetLib is the first and only publishing industry entity to roll-out author and publishing
    portals for every country in Africa.
    StreetLib is the only publishing industry entity to offer a Pan-African and global ebook store
    that accepts content in all Africa's national and indigenous languages.
    StreetLib supports ebooks, digital audio and POD print and offers unrivalled global distribution
    across the retail, library and subscription sectors.
    StreetLib charges no up-front fees and requires no exclusivity.
    StreetLib looks forward to working with any and all Nigeria's and Africa's stakeholders to build a
    world class Nigerian and Pan-African publishing industry for the 21st century.
    The StreetLib Africa Project

    View full-size slide

  74. www.streetlib.com
    www.streetlib.com/nigeria
    www.streetlib.com/projectafrica/

    View full-size slide

  75. Sources
    1) https://thenewpublishingstandard.com/global-book-market-valued-at-143bn/
    4) TNPS analysis
    5) TNPS analysis
    2) https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-publishing-market-2018-2022-market-will-register-a-
    revenue-of-approx-usd-356-billion---rise-in-number-of-independent-and-self-published-authors-
    300665770.html
    6) https://www.statista.com/topics/1474/e-books/
    7) https://www.statista.com/outlook/213/109/ebooks/united-states
    8) https://thenewpublishingstandard.com/2018-750000-digital-book-downloads-day-went-uncounted-
    nielsen-bookscan-data-guys-bookstat-fuelling-nonsense-people-reading-less/
    3) https://thenewpublishingstandard.com/africas-book-industry-worth-1-billion-growing-6-despite-piracy-
    challenges/

    View full-size slide

  76. 9) https://thenewpublishingstandard.com/storytel-q4-report-subscribers-up-44-yy-
    streaming-sales-up-38-targets-1-1-million-subscribers-by-end-2019/
    10) https://thenewpublishingstandard.com/tencents-china-literature-ipo-the-biggest-in-a-decade/
    11) https://manypossibilities.net/african-undersea-cables/
    12) https://www.statista.com/outlook/213/161/ebooks/new-zealand
    13) https://www.internetworldstats.com/stats6.htm
    14) https://www.internetworldstats.com/stats1.htm
    15) https://www.internetworldstats.com/stats9.htm
    16) https://www.statista.com/outlook/213/144/ebooks/netherlands
    17) https://www.statista.com/outlook/213/107/ebooks/australia
    18) https://www.statista.com/outlook/213/108/ebooks/canada
    19) https://www.internetworldstats.com/stats2.htm
    20) https://www.statista.com/outlook/213/153/ebooks/spain

    View full-size slide

  77. 21) https://www.statista.com/outlook/213/141/ebooks/italy
    22) https://www.statista.com/outlook/213/136/ebooks/france
    23) https://www.statista.com/outlook/213/137/ebooks/germany
    24) https://www.statista.com/outlook/213/156/ebooks/united-kingdom
    25) https://www.internetworldstats.com/top20.htm

    View full-size slide

  78. Giacomo D'Angelo
    CEO at StreetLib
    www.streetlib.com
    [email protected]
    Mark Williams, Editor-in-Chief TNPS
    Director of Communication at StreetLib
    www.thenewpublishingstandard.com
    [email protected]

    View full-size slide