InterSystems Global Summit - Mobile Challenges and Opportunities

Transcript

1. Mobile Opportunities and Challenges Jason Grigsby • @grigs jason@cloudfour.com • cloudfour.com http://www.flickr.com/photos/jphilipson/2100627902/
2. Follow along @grigs_talks bit.ly/20-mar-2012 After event: @grigs http://www.flickr.com/photos/stevegarfield/4247757731/
3. Got email from this guy... http://www.flickr.com/photos/corbett3000/2327165138/in/set-72157604094629546/
4. Mobile is Disruptive Technology http://www.flickr.com/photos/talkephotography/4523849236/ Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 2.0
5. 10 20 30 40 50 60 Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19 Quarters Since Launch Subscribers (MM) iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape Users First 20 Quarters Since Launch Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates ~39MM netbooks have shipped in first eight quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research. Mobile Internet Outpaces Desktop Internet Adoption iPhone + iTouch Users = 8x AOL Users 9 Quarters After Launch Desktop Internet AOL* v 2.0 Launched 9/94 Mobile Internet NTT docomo i-mode Launched 6/99 Mobile Internet iPhone + iTouch Launched 6/07 ~57MM ~25MM ~7MM Desktop Internet Netscape* Launched 12/94 ~11MM 26 Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
6. http://www.opera.com/smw/ 20 000 000 40 000 000 60 000 000 80 000 000 100 000 000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total page views (Opera Mini) Data transfer (Opera Mini) Last month we had 52 billion page views. That is Reddit, times 52. Last month Opera Mini transferred 804 million megabytes of data. That is approx. 10 times the amount of data found in the online collection of the U.S. Library of Congress. January 2011: 90.368.678 + 15 million using Opera Mobile Unique Opera Mini users Graphic: Tom Byermoen // Opera Software Opera Mini is available for more than 3000 different mobile phone models
7. 5.9 Billion Mobile phone for nearly everyone on the planet. Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.flickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/
8. Technology Cycles - Wealth Creation / Destruction New Companies Often Win Big in New Cycles While Incumbents Often Falter Mainframe Computing 1960s Personal Computing 1980s Desktop Internet Computing 1990s Mobile Internet Computing 2000s Mini Computing 1970s New Winners New Winners New Winners New Winners Note: Winners from 1950s to 1980s based on Fortune 500 rankings (revenue-based), desktop Internet winners based on wealth created from 1995 to respective peak market capitalizations. Source: FactSet, Fortune, Morgan Stanley Research. Microsoft Cisco Intel Apple Oracle EMC Dell Compaq Google AOL eBay Yahoo! Yahoo! Japan Amazon.com Tencent Alibaba Baidu Rakuten Digital Equipment Data General HP Prime Computervision Wang Labs IBM NCR Control Data Sperry Honeywell Burroughs 16 Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
9. http://www.flickr.com/photos/76074333@N00/317952268/ | http://futuristmovie.com Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 2.0
16. ME NEED IPHONE APP. http://www.flickr.com/photos/corbett3000/2327165138/in/set-72157604094629546/
17. 2008 We must have an iPhone App!
18. 2009 We must have an Android App!
19. 2010 We must have an iPad App!
20. 2011 We must have a...
23. Upcoming Zombie Apocalypse of Devices
24. More devices every day
25. Short Run Problem is Mobile Phones
26. Long Run Problem Content & Services Car sketch: http://www.flickr.com/photos/cloppy/5081768461/ HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML NATIVE NATIVE NATIVE
27. Flickr photo by .Hessam: http://www.flickr.com/photos/essamo/1070527547/ Fragmentation: This is what the web is supposed to solve.
30. Find a single report that doesn’t show exponential growth for mobile web. CHALLENGE:
34. 3% 2% 12% 18% 22% 43% Android Symbian iPhone Blackberry Bada Windows/Others Q2 2011 Smartphone Market Share (Gartner) Phones currently shipping WebKit in blue (97%). WebKit & HTML5: Dominant Mobile Platform By contrast, 10 smartphone operating systems.
35. http://www.flickr.com/photos/hi-phi/54828371 Native vs Web
36. Email Gallery Free Email Templates Email Marketing Companies Submit Advertise Here Advertise Here Column Type of Email Type of Business Color POPULARITY RESET Hyundai USA Newsletter 3 Alertful Newsletter 2 Divine Chocolate Newsletter 2 Does your company send email to customers? http://www.email-gallery.com
37. Does your company participate in social media? http://www.flickr.com/photos/intersectionconsulting/5177773774/
38. Links don’t open apps http://www.flickr.com/photos/mattimattila/4001221570/
40. Why are we fighting? http://www.flickr.com/photos/jeff-bauche/2230236391/sizes/o/
42. Major Brands Using Combo of Web and Native
43. Even Apple uses embedded webviews
45. http://www.flickr.com/photos/silipo/378476114/ 21% of Google’s largest advertisers have mobile web sites. Only
46. http://www.flickr.com/photos/silipo/378476114/ 21% of Google’s largest advertisers have mobile web sites. Only Why?
47. How do you deliver the right HTML, CSS and JavaScript to browsers?
52. Original Resized K Saved % Saved Holmes 34.7K 8.1K 26.6K 76.6% Watson 39.0K 8.4K 30.6K 78.4% Mycroft 30.5K 6.7K 23.8K 78.0% Moriarty 43.4K 8.2K 35.2K 81.1% Adler 26.0K 6.6K 19.4K 74.6% Winter 34.7K 7.8K 26.9K 77.5% Total 208.3K 45.8K 162.5K 78.0% Media Queries Hide Problems
53. Device Detection
54. “Browser sniffing is a stupid, error-prone and reviled practice, ‘backed’ by a decade of failures.” http://www.flickr.com/photos/doug88888/4550561194/
55. “User agent sniffing must die. Nice job advocating this bad practice.” http://www.flickr.com/photos/kayepants/391645870/
56. None of the techniques are ideal. Choose based on your requirements and your audience.
57. http://www.flickr.com/photos/silipo/378476114/ 21% of Google’s largest advertisers have mobile web sites. Only
58. http://www.flickr.com/photos/silipo/378476114/ 21% of Google’s largest advertisers have mobile web sites. Only Why?
59. http://www.flickr.com/photos/nickwheeleroz/2391631937/in/photostream/ BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR MOBILE WEB: Many Sites are Chaos Behind the Scenes
60. http://www.flickr.com/photos/ionan/103646126/ Multiple Systems Taped Together
61. Native Developers Start from a Clean Slate http://www.flickr.com/photos/salendron/5569020488/
62. Content & Services Car sketch: http://www.flickr.com/photos/cloppy/5081768461/
63. Content & Services Car sketch: http://www.flickr.com/photos/cloppy/5081768461/ HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML
64. Content & Services Car sketch: http://www.flickr.com/photos/cloppy/5081768461/ HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML NATIVE NATIVE NATIVE
65. Features of New Platforms Integrated image resizing Video conversion and resizing Separation of content from markup so content can be used in native apps Prioritization of content based on context Full-featured APIs Synchronization New Ways to Enable Content Editors http://www.flickr.com/photos/expressmonorail/3046970004/sizes/l/
66. What does WYSIWYG mean to multiple devices? WYSIWTF http://www.flickr.com/photos/ndm007/171398958/
68. http://blog.programmableweb.com/2009/10/13/cope-create-once-publish-everywhere/
69. http://blog.programmableweb.com/2009/11/11/content-portability-building-an-api-is-not-enough/
72. http://www.flickr.com/ photos/andresthor/ 3963368371/
73. Desktop Web Server Internet example.com/products/[productID] One Possible Bridging Solution
74. Desktop Web Server Internet example.com/products/[productID] Desktop or Mobile One Possible Bridging Solution
75. Desktop Web Server Internet example.com/products/[productID] Desktop or Mobile Desktop Web Page Desktop Redirect Mobile m.example.com/ products/[productID] One Possible Bridging Solution
76. Desktop Web Server Internet example.com/products/[productID] Desktop or Mobile Desktop Web Page Desktop Redirect Mobile m.example.com/ products/[productID] Cloud Four Mobile Web Server Device Class Template A Device Class Template B Device Class Template C Device Class Template D Internet One Possible Bridging Solution
77. Desktop Web Server Internet example.com/products/[productID] Desktop or Mobile Desktop Web Page Desktop Redirect Mobile m.example.com/ products/[productID] Cloud Four Mobile Web Server Device Class Template A Device Class Template B Device Class Template C Device Class Template D Internet Web Services APIs One Possible Bridging Solution
78. Desktop Web Server Internet example.com/products/[productID] Desktop or Mobile Desktop Web Page Desktop Redirect Mobile m.example.com/ products/[productID] Cloud Four Mobile Web Server Device Class Template A Device Class Template B Device Class Template C Device Class Template D Internet Web Services APIs One Possible Bridging Solution APIs Necessary to Support App Development
79. Desktop Web Server Internet example.com/products/[productID] Desktop or Mobile Desktop Web Page Desktop Redirect Mobile m.example.com/ products/[productID] Web Services APIs One Possible Bridging Solution Mobile Web Server w/ RWD Platform Internet APIs Necessary to Support App Development
81. You’re in a better spot than most.
83. No matter how you look at it, we have a lot of infrastructure to build http://www.flickr.com/photos/wwworks/2942950081/
84. thank you. http://www.flickr.com/photos/24311566@N07/4697623122/
85. http://www.flickr.com/ photos/troyholden/ 5544097948/
88. Not easy, but this is where the opportunities are. http://www.flickr.com/photos/donnagrayson/195244498/in/photostream/
89. http://www.flickr.com/photos/eole/3215868087/
90. http://www.flickr.com/photos/matupplevelser/4643768831/ Expectations of apps are rising.
91. http://www.flickr.com/photos/quinnanya/4599750124/ Mobile doesn’t mean taking things away.
92. How Do I Add an RSS Feed to My RSS Reader? Don’t Skip Core Functionality
93. 1024 x 768: Still No Way to Add RSS
94. But if there’s one thing I’ve learned in observing people on their mobile devices, it’s that they’ll do anything on mobile if they have the need. Write long emails? Check. Manage complex sets of information? Check. And the list goes on. If people want to do it, they’ll do it on mobile - especially when it’s their only or most convenient option. —Luke Wroblewski lukew.com/ff/entry.asp?1333 http://www.flickr.com/photos/emmacox/6095336904/
95. http://www.flickr.com/photos/brunauto/5062644167/ Our vision of mobile context is often wrong.
96. 80% during misc downtime 76% while waiting in lines 62% while watching TV 69% for point of sale research http://www.flickr.com/photos/missmeng/5327470961
97. TMI: 39% use phone on the toilet.
98. Yes, we can’t know the mobile context. http://www.flickr.com/photos/timcaynes/158599960/
99. But that doesn’t mean mobile isn’t unique and powerful. http://www.flickr.com/photos/sparktography/2485147794/
100. Mobile as the 7th Mass Media?
101. 1. Printing press http://www.flickr.com/photos/buschap/3917984966/
102. 2. Recordings http://www.flickr.com/photos/taviona/278461610/
103. 3. Cinema http://www.flickr.com/photos/m4tik/4687194723/
104. 4. Radio http://www.flickr.com/photos/kt/249301268/
105. 5. Television http://www.flickr.com/photos/simon_aughton/2178768452/
106. 6. Internet http://www.flickr.com/photos/lecates/454787692/
107. 7. Mobile http://www.flickr.com/photos/djwudi/382030798/
108. Mobile’s Eight Unique Abilities http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedestriantype/4789244416/
109. http://www.flickr.com/photos/fchouse/2829381653/ 1. PERSONAL 63% do not share phone
110. 2. PERMANENTLY CARRIED ~50% of US admit to sleeping with phone http://www.flickr.com/photos/kk/3615287378/
111. 3. ALWAYS ON http://www.flickr.com/photos/gilderic/3517477267/
112. 4. BUILT-IN PAYMENT CHANNEL
113. 5. CREATIVE IMPULSE http://www.flickr.com/photos/d_a_v_i_d_m_/246298437/
114. http://www.flickr.com/photos/memotions/259656126/ 6. ACCURATE MEASUREMENT
115. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mythoto/1234638761/ 7. SOCIAL CONTEXT
116. 8. AUGMENTED REALITY http://issuu.com/mkparsley/docs/ikea
117. Mobile is the most borg-like technology we’ve ever seen
118. Inspiring http://www.flickr.com/photos/asphericlens/5661878892/
119. “When a new medium borrows from an existing one, some of what it borrows makes sense, but much of the borrowing is thoughtless, ‘ritual’, and often constrains the new medium. Over time, the new medium develops its own conventions, throwing off existing conventions that don’t make sense.” —John Allsopp, Dao of Web Design
120. What are we borrowing from the previous medium—the PC Internet—that doesn’t make sense for mobile?
121. “ e history of mobile phones has been a long slow process of copying what works on the desktop and then sheepishly realizing that it just doesn’t quite work right.” —Scott Jenson
122. 320 px Too much focus on the smaller screen.
123. Why do we need to look at our phones to get directions? One vibration for left. Two for right. http://www.flickr.com/photos/williamhook/4225307113
124. Old saying in mobile: Asia is two years ahead… http://www.flickr.com/photos/romainguy/3673700251/
125. of Europe which is two years ahead… http://www.flickr.com/photos/djou/2079730487
126. of the United States. http://www.flickr.com/photos/davearquati/459024208/
128. “My impression is that there was no computers anymore. Only tablets and phones.” “Some Apple devices, but not that much. Most of the smartphones are Samsung and HTC phones (no surprise here), but also a *lot* of feature phones and not-that-smart-phones (old smart phones). ”
129. It’s fairly certain that the highest-value use will stay predominantly on desktop. —Jakob Nielsen http://www.flickr.com/photos/dplanet/82899080/
130. Most complex tasks have vastly better user experience on the desktop and thus will be performed there. I'm talking anything from researching your next car purchase to learning about a new medical condition (and its associated pharmaceuticals) to managing your investment portfolio. Yes, you might enter a stock trade with your broker's mobile app, but you'll research new mutual funds on the desktop. —Jakob Nielsen
132. http://www.flickr.com/photos/acaben/541334636/ e Post-PC Era Didn’t Start with the iPad
133. It started in Asia with mobile phones and spread to developing countries. http://www.flickr.com/photos/jamesjustin/3914923307
134. Africa has more in common with Asia than Asia does with the United States. http://www.flickr.com/photos/ict4d/3068105816/
135. slideshare.net/CMSummit/ms-internet-trends060710final
136. nytimes.com/2011/04/18/technology/18mobile.html anks Steve Souders!
137. nytimes.com/2011/04/18/technology/18mobile.html anks Steve Souders!
138. 20% of Kenya’s GDP sent through mobile banking. http://www.flickr.com/photos/kiwanja/3169447879
139. Mobile is the most important technology since the printing press. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rhadley/3527304106/
140. UN urging more mobile for developing countries.
141. A 2005 London Business School study found that for every additional 10 mobile phones per 100 people in a developing country, GDP rises by 0.5%. http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2011/jul/24/mobile-phones-africa-micro nance-farming
142. Saffron uprising
143. Cellscope puts microscopes in remote areas.
144. According to California-based mobile-banking innovator Carol Realini, executive chairman of Obopay: “Africa is the Silicon Valley of banking. e future of banking is being de ned here… It’s going to change the world.” http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2011/jul/24/mobile-phones-africa-micro nance-farming
145. http://www.flickr.com/photos/whiteafrican/2888960873
146. And really, is the United States that different? Or is the story simply not being told? http://mobithinking.com/mobile-marketing-tools/latest-mobile-stats#mobile-only
147. Understanding mobile as the primary and sometimes only device… http://www.flickr.com/photos/e4a-2030/5106562313
148. is difficult when we spend so much time on our PCs. http://www.flickr.com/photos/goobi/4021009835/
149. Word Lens
150. A9 Flow Powered by Amazon
151. Polar Rose. Bought by Apple.
154. 27 • Location detection: GPS, WiFi, cell towers • Orientation: direction from a digital compass • Device positioning & motion: from an accelerometer • Audio: input from a microphone; output to speaker • Video & image: capture/input from a camera • Device connections: through Bluetooth between devices • Proximity: device closeness to physical objects • Ambient Light: light/dark environment awareness • RFID reader: identify & track objects with broadcasted identifiers • Multi-touch sensors • Haptic feedback: “feel” different surfaces on a screen • Biometrics: retinal, fingerprint, etc. • Push: real-time notifications “instant” to user Sensor Capabilities We’re just scratching the surface of what these sensors can do. Highly recommend Luke Wroblewski’s First Person User Experience Presentation at http://www.lukew.com/presos/preso.asp?21
155. We look at mobile as a small screen version of the our computers… http://www.flickr.com/photos/bendodson/3367856091
156. when we should be looking at mobile as so much more. http://www.flickr.com/photos/whiteafrican/3401121885
157. BIG THINK
158. Jason Grigsby • @grigs • cloudfour.com Slides: bit.ly/20-mar-2012
159. Get 40% off of the print and 50% off of ebook version using code AUTHD at oreilly.com. OR Amazon link (no code): http://bit.ly/hf-mw
160. Jason Grigsby • @grigs • cloudfour.com Slides: bit.ly/20-mar-2012