Upgrade to Pro — share decks privately, control downloads, hide ads and more …

意思決定に繋げるための因果推論(DID)と PythonによるCausalImpact

hikarut
January 15, 2021

意思決定に繋げるための因果推論(DID)と PythonによるCausalImpact

hikarut

January 15, 2021
Tweet

More Decks by hikarut

Other Decks in Technology

Transcript

  1. ɾ೥גࣜձࣾΤοάγεςϜ8&#ΤϯδχΞ ɾ೥#ϦʔάἚ৓ϩϘοπ ɹɹɹɹɹϚʔέςΟϯάετϥςδετ σʔλ෼ੳ  ɾ೥-"13"4ΤϯδχΞεΧ΢ταϙʔτ IJLBSVU IJLBSVU MJHIU ຊ

    ۀ ɾ೥:BIPP+"1"/৽ଔೖࣾ8&#ΤϯδχΞ ɾ೥גࣜձࣾΠʔϒοΫΠχγΞςΟϒδϟύϯ ग़޲  ɾ೥σʔλαΠΤϯεάϧʔϓάϧʔϓϚωʔδϟʔ ෳ ۀ ࣗݾ঺հɹߴڮޫ
  2. #"    Ϋʔϙϯ഑෍લ    " #

    %*%ͷྫɿECαΠτͰΫʔϙϯΛ഑෍ͨ͠ͱ͖ͷऔѻߴͷޮՌݕূ Ϋʔϙϯ഑෍ޙ ΫʔϙϯʹΑΔऔѻߴͷޮՌ
  3. #"    Ϋʔϙϯ഑෍લ    " #

    %*%ͷྫɿECαΠτͰΫʔϙϯΛ഑෍ͨ͠ͱ͖ͷऔѻߴͷޮՌݕূ Ϋʔϙϯ഑෍ޙ ΫʔϙϯʹΑΔऔѻߴͷޮՌ ΫʔϙϯʹΑͬͯऔѻߴ্͕ ͕ͬͨͷ͔ɺͦΕҎ֎ͷཁҼ Ͱ্͕ͬͨͷ͔෼͔Βͳ͍ قઅཁҼͳͲ
  4. հೖ͕ߦΘΕ͍ͯͳ͍άϧʔ ϓ Ϋʔϙϯະ഑෍ ͷ܏޲ͱ ൺֱ͢Δ    " $

    & % Ϋʔϙϯ഑෍ %*%ͷྫɿECαΠτͰΫʔϙϯΛ഑෍ͨ͠ͱ͖ͷऔѻߴͷޮՌݕূ # Ϋʔϙϯ഑෍લ Ϋʔϙϯ഑෍ޙ Ϋʔϙϯະ഑෍ ΫʔϙϯʹΑΔऔѻߴͷޮՌ Կ΋͠ͳ͚Ε͹"͸&ʹͳͬͯ ͍͕ͨΫʔϙϯʹΑͬͯ#ʹ ͳͬͨ #& ͕ຊ౰ͷޮՌ
  5.    " $ & % Ϋʔϙϯ഑෍ %*%ͷྫɿECαΠτͰΫʔϙϯΛ഑෍ͨ͠ͱ͖ͷऔѻߴͷޮՌݕূ #

    Ϋʔϙϯ഑෍લ Ϋʔϙϯ഑෍ޙ Ϋʔϙϯະ഑෍ ΫʔϙϯʹΑΔऔѻߴͷޮՌ #&  #"  %$          ࠩ෼ͷࠩ෼
  6.    " $ & % Ϋʔϙϯ഑෍ %*%ͷ஫ҙ఺ɿฏߦτϨϯυͷԾఆ #

    Ϋʔϙϯ഑෍લ Ϋʔϙϯ഑෍ޙ Ϋʔϙϯະ഑෍ &" ͱ %$ ͕ಉ͡ ܏޲ ฏߦ Ͱ͋Δࣄ͕લ ఏ৚݅
  7.    " $ & % %*%ͷ஫ҙ఺ɿฏߦτϨϯυͷԾఆ # Ϋʔϙϯ഑෍લ

    Ϋʔϙϯ഑෍ޙ ൺֱର৅܈ Ϋʔϙϯະ഑෍ ܈ ͷऔѻߴ͕Լ͕͍ͬͯΔ Ϋʔϙϯ഑෍ Ϋʔϙϯະ഑෍ ฏߦτϨϯυ͕ԾఆͰ͖ͳ͍ ৔߹͸ผͷόΠΞε͕͔͔ͬ ͍ͯΔՄೳੑ͕͋Γਖ਼֬ͳݕ ূ͕Ͱ͖ͳ͍ ྫɿΫʔϙϯ഑෍Ϣʔβʔ͸ݩʑϔϏʔϢ ʔβʔͰ͋Δ
  8.    " $ & % Ϋʔϙϯ഑෍ $BVTBM*NQBDUʹ͍ͭͯ #

    Ϋʔϙϯ഑෍લ Ϋʔϙϯ഑෍ޙ Ϋʔϙϯະ഑෍ Ϋʔϙϯະ഑෍Ϣʔβʔͷσʔ λΛجʹɺΫʔϙϯ͕഑෍͞Ε ͳ͔ͬͨͱ͖ͷσʔλΛ༧ଌ͠ ͯͦ͜ͱͷࠩ෼Λൺֱ͢Δ
  9. &/%