Understanding the future human | Neil Collman | EuroIA 2018

The EuroIA Summit is the leading Information Architecture (IA) and User Experience (UX) conference for Europe. Humanogy was the 2018 conference theme and Nile's Practice Director Neil Collman had the pleasure of presenting on 'Understanding the future human'.
The session was underpinned by the idea that we all need to be futurists AND masters of history - but in the same way that we didn't anticipate change properly last time, we need to know why that was so we can act differently this time. Don’t get caught up in the hype - it’s wasted energy. Take an informed and considered view using insight from the past to select where to invest time, energy, resource and money.

Transcript

1. Neil Collman Practice Director at Nile @skuft @nilesays U N D E R S T A N D I N G T H E F U T U R E H U M A N
2. UCD CSS XML PSD SEO PSD HTM AI ML AR VR XR SD DT
3. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human VIDEO OF ROBOT 3 20 18 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcbGRBPkrps
4. 1986 http://www.theoldrobots.com/images49/Steve_the_Butler-4.JPG
5. 1810 https://www.businessinsider.com/robots-evolution-photos-2011-6?IR=T
6. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 6 12TH CENT UR Y A D https://everythingnice.wordpress.com/tag/al-jazari/
7. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 7 WE’V E HEARD THIS A LL B EFORE
9. AR OUND T HE SAME T IME…
10. AR OUND T HE SAME T IME…
11. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 11 "CONSUMERS ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE PRIVACY AND SECURITY OF THEIR ONLINE TRANSACTIONS; MORE THAN HALF (58%) DO NOT CONSIDER IT SAFE TO DO ANY KIND OF FINANCIAL TRANSACTION ONLINE."
12. WHAT I F… Businesses had looked into the maturity of human behaviour Understood market readiness Estimated the timing of this becoming mainstream
13. OF COU RS E, T HE REST IS HISTORY…
14. SOME OF IT WE ’VE GOT RIGHT… Image: Bandsintown
15. SOME WE HAV EN’T http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2167702617723376
16. TWITCH, TRENDY, BUT WHAT’S THE TR END? Image: Twitch
17. DON’T BE LIE VE THE HYPE! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vQaVIoEjOM
18. WE ’V E GOT AN OTHER CHA NCE TO GET IT RIGHT
19. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 19 H ARDWIRE D 
 TO FAIL
20. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 20 WHAT WILL YOU NEED FROM YOUR PEN SION? Image: Bad Grandpa
21. WE’R E N OT GOOD AT THINKING ABOUT T HE FUT URE
22. HOW DO WE GE T BET TER AT THIN KI NG THE UN THINKABLE? Image: Nokia
23. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 23 “THERE'S NO CHANCE THAT THE IPHONE IS GOING TO GET ANY SIGNIFICANT MARKET SHARE. NO CHANCE. IT'S A $500 SUBSIDISED ITEM.” – STEVE BULLMER, MICROSOFT EXEC, 2007
24. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 24 “WHO THE HELL WANTS MOVIES WITH SOUND?” – HARRY WARNER, PRESIDENT OF WARNER BROTHERS STUDIOS, ~1918
25. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 25 “INVENTIONS HAVE LONG SINCE REACHED THEIR LIMIT. AND I SEE NO HOPE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT.” – ROMAN ENGINEER SEXTUS JULIUS FRONTINUS, 1ST CENTURY AD
26. THIS TIM E, CHANGE IS DIFFEREN T
27. Pace of change 1 Crowded marketplace 2 Increasingly distributed 3 27 EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human Pace of opportunity 4 Culture shock in large orgs 5 WE’RE SEEING…
28. How will they behave? 1 What will they value? 2 What resources will they have? 4 The future human How does that change the way we think about what we design? 4
29. SO, WE N EED TO DO SOMET HIN G DI FFERENT
30. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 30 LEAVE THE PRED ICT IONS TO NOSTR ADAMUS
31. HOW CAN WE G ET BET TER AT THIN KI NG SY ST EMATICALLY ABOUT T HE FUT URE?
32. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 32 WHAT IS FORESIGHT? The capacity to think systematically about the future to inform decision making today
33. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 33 Source: Institute For The Future FORESIGHT P ROCESS 33
34. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 34 FORESIGHT A ND D ESIGN Signals, scenarios, future personas FOR ESI GH T SERV ICE D ESIGN Provocation 34
35. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 35 “TH ERE A RE NO
 FUTURE FACTS” Wendell Bell The Foundations of Futures Studies
36. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 36 https://www.nesta.org.uk/blog/speculative-design-design-niche-or-new-tool-government-innovation
37. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 37 “ANY MEANINGFUL STATEMENT ABOUT THE FUTURE SHOULD AT FIRST SEEM RI DICULOUS” Futurist Jim Dator University of Hawaii
38. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 38 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chXw5hzrtt8 DI GI TAL BA NKING WAS A RID ICULOUS FUTURE IN 1983
39. IMAGI NE THE FUTURE OF WORK
40. CVS D ON’ T EXIST NE I TH ER DO MANAGERS CHOOSE YOUR OWN JOB TITLE YOU C HOOSE WHAT TO WORK ON AND T HE HOUR S YOU WORK TOTAL TRA N SPAR ENCY TEAMS F OR M ORGANICALLY UNLIMIT ED LEAV E
41. RIDICULOUS?
42. A real example of local disruption with the potential to scale: 
 a possible future that’s 
 here today. 42 EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 1 S I G N A L S
44. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 44 “AT FANBYTES, WE REALISED THAT BY REMOVING CVS AND INSTEAD SETTING A RELEVANT CHALLENGE FOR APPLICANTS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN JOB APPLICATIONS AND, MOST RELEVANTLY, LED TO AN INCREASE IN APPLICATIONS FROM A DIVERSE GROUP OF APPLICANTS. ” – TIMOTHY ARMOO, FOUNDER FANBYTES
46. VALUE-D RIVEN M ILLENNIAL & GEN-Z MINDSETS
47. BLOCKCHAIN FOR BUSINESS
48. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 48 “LOTS OF PARTNERS WILL COME TOGETHER IN NEW WAYS TO CREATE NEW KINDS OF ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURES THAT WILL BE MORE FLUID AND LESS RIGID.” – BOB JOHANSEN, INSTITUTE FOR THE FUTURE
50. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 50 SUB SECTI ON “WORLD KNIT TING” https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/nostalgia/way-were-cotton-king-manchester-6085736
51. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 51 DON’T JUS T FOCUS ON TECHNOLOGY Social Technological Environmental Economic Political
52. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 52 S I G N A L S : A S K Y O U R S E L F How could this signal combine with other signals or trends? What knock on impacts would this have? What else needs to happen for this signal to scale?
53. There is no one possible or most likely future. Instead, explore a range of relatable scenarios. 53 EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 2 E X P L O R E A L T E R N A T I V E S
54. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 54 Growth Trends continue as they have 
 in the past. Constraint Regulation and/or governments intervene. Transformation The status quo is turned upside down. Collapse Disaster strikes. S C E N A R I O S Source: Institute For The Future
55. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human TRAN SFORMATION Advances in automation and blockchain mean that there’s an explosion in the number of distributed work platforms and freelancing globally, fuelled by a desire to find more fulfilling work. Work is redefined. Opportunity for all. 55 Image: www.blockchain.com
56. Tell stories about humans of the future. 56 EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 3 B R I N G T H E F U T U R E T O L I F E
57. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 57 M E E T D A N I She entrusts a huge of amount of her life admin to automated services, so she can focus on the family She expects the choices that technology makes for her reflect her values: local, ethical, fair Member of a number of global work platforms (helps with flexibility). She’s really into food related topics She’s automatically offered freelance tasks on merit 3 2 I N 2 0 2 8 , 
 M O T H E R O F T W O Has a work reputation score; there’s an automated feedback loop with her performance
58. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 58 Dani rudely awoken by the kids Dani is told by her work platform there’s a new job for her, which fits her profile She’s been asked to photograph local independent coffee shops in her area, for a research company in South America The platform rates her performance on speed and accuracy, pays her, and adds to profile A D A Y I N T H E L I F E 2 0 3 0 1 2 3 5 On the way to the park, she shares images and video, which are automatically verified 4
59. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 59 What brands might move into the automated work space? E.g. should we be tracking LinkedIn? How do we earn trust with people like Dani so we can route them appropriate work? What parts of our business would suit this model of working? How prepared are we for that? What are our employees of the future doing now that will shape how they think and behave? How would we attract and retain workers like Dani? How might we codify and measure our values? A C T I O N T O T A K E T O D A Y
60. P ROVOCATI ON – WHAT IF W E HAD SERVICES THAT ENABLED: A new way to recruit? A more fluid structure and workforce? Better ways to Live our values at work?
61. Build a case for your forecast. 61 EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 4 S E N S E C H E C K
62. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human HEY, NOT SO FAST! AVOIDING COGNITIVE SHORTCUTS Ask yourself. What assumptions are you making about: •customer behaviour •the wider ecosystem •internal and external factors •your organisation •your team 62
63. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 63 RE INVEN T YOURSELF FOR THE FUT UR E
64. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 64 TAKE OWNE RSHIP AND EVOLVE
65. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 65 “THE ILLITERATE OF THE 21ST CENTURY WILL NOT BE THOSE WHO CANNOT READ AND WRITE BUT THOSE WHO CANNOT LEARN, UNLEARN AND RELEARN.” - MARTY NEUMEIER
66. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 66 Image: Magic Leap MAGIC LEA P: PATEN TS “The AR system may render a plant that blooms when the user exhibits ‘good’ behavior and wither away when the user does not… the plant may bloom when the user is being a good boyfriend, for example (e.g., buys flowers for girlfriend, etc.) and may wither away when the user has failed to call his girlfriend all day.” Image: Magic Leap
67. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human MAGIC LEAP: WHAT PROBLEMS ARE WE GOING TO SOLVE? 67 Source: Magic Leap
68. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 68 Is a plant the best metaphor? How should we communicate “good” and “bad”? Who decides what “good” and “bad” means? How does one rectify bad behaviour? And who is responsible? When, where and how should this happen? How do we make sure this is reliable? Where does behaviour data come from? Can we trust it? Is it ethical? …desirable? …safe?
69. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 69 RIDING THE TWO CUR VES OF HUMANOGY TODAY’S INNOVATIONS Linguistic UI Design systems Automated design Data driven experiences Robotic Creative Direction Automated game dynamics Research Ops RESIDUAL ASSETS Empathy Cultural context Storytelling Systems thinking Analysis & synthesis Wayfinding Psychology Prototyping HOW WE DO THINGS TODAY Site mapping Content audits Wireframing Data analysis Mental modelling Personas HOW WE’LL DO THEM TOMORROW Automation architecture Holopresence in teams Augmented experience Immersive simulations Bot personas Data doubles Human API Algorithm-Design partnerships Ambient intelligence From: To: Smart screens Ride Two Curves concept: Institute For The Future
70. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 70 STRATEGIES TO JUMP THE CURVE Go beyond tech trends: Social / Tech / Environment / Economics / Politics Spot unusual sources of the future: conversations, the world around you Analyse and synthesise: making sense of disparate and unrelated information Embrace the ridiculous: it’s often less ridiculous than you first think Repurpose and reposition : what skills can you apply in new contexts?
71. EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human 71 IN CLOSI NG…
72. THER E’ S A CHOICE What future do you want to create?
73. WHAT I F… Your vision isn’t ridiculous enough? The future is staring you in the face? You designed for the future human?
74. Future Neil 74 T H A N K S EuroIA 2018 | Understanding The Future Human @skuft @nilesays