The Future of Corals subject to Climate Change

An ecological and evolutionary overview of the perspectives for Coral Reefs under the effects of climate change.

Transcript

1. The Future of Corals subject to Climate Change INTRODUCTION TO ENVIRONMENTAL ECOLOGY AND AGROECOLOGY
2. Evolution and Connectivity influence the Persistence and Recovery of Coral Reefs Global Warming Decreases Connectivity among Coral Populations Climate Change Drives Trait-Shifts in Coral Reef Community Quantifying Global Potential for Coral Evolutionary Response to Climate Change Motivation Climate change will cause substantial changes in functional properties of ecosystems and diminished trait diversity in communities; Coral reef ecosystems and the services they provide sustain half a billion people on Earth; Understanding whether and how corals can physiologically or genetically adjust to keep pace with environmental change, has therefore become a global research priority; Today, we present some state-of-the-art results in this field! Gaia Carenini & Louis Bodot The Future of Corals subject to Climate Change February 1, 2023 2/18
3. Evolution and Connectivity influence the Persistence and Recovery of Coral Reefs Global Warming Decreases Connectivity among Coral Populations Climate Change Drives Trait-Shifts in Coral Reef Community Quantifying Global Potential for Coral Evolutionary Response to Climate Change Economic value of coral reefs today (ICRI, 2019) The private sector economic value of coral reefs across the tourism, commercial fisheries and coastal development sectors (e.g., $6.2 billion per annum in Mesoamerica) is linked to coral health; The value of future healthy coral reefs is high. A shift toward a healthy state by 2030 could unlock an additional $35 billion (or $2.5 billion per annum) in additional value to the three sectors in Mesoamerica. Gaia Carenini & Louis Bodot The Future of Corals subject to Climate Change February 1, 2023 3/18
4. Evolution and Connectivity influence the Persistence and Recovery of Coral Reefs Global Warming Decreases Connectivity among Coral Populations Climate Change Drives Trait-Shifts in Coral Reef Community Quantifying Global Potential for Coral Evolutionary Response to Climate Change The Future of Corals: A Few Possible Scenarios The Effects of Climate Change on the Oceans Sea-level rise; Marine heatwaves; Ocean acidification; Alteration of ocean’s currents. Possible scenarios Rapid adaptation and rapid genetic evolution of corals to adapt to the new conditions; Displacement of the corals in environment with more favourable conditions; Rarefaction followed by recovery of corals’ population; Complete or partial disappearance of coral reefs. Gaia Carenini & Louis Bodot The Future of Corals subject to Climate Change February 1, 2023 4/18
5. Evolution and Connectivity influence the Persistence and Recovery of Coral Reefs Global Warming Decreases Connectivity among Coral Populations Climate Change Drives Trait-Shifts in Coral Reef Community Quantifying Global Potential for Coral Evolutionary Response to Climate Change Overview Gaia Carenini & Louis Bodot The Future of Corals subject to Climate Change February 1, 2023 5/18
6. Evolution and Connectivity influence the Persistence and Recovery of Coral Reefs Global Warming Decreases Connectivity among Coral Populations Climate Change Drives Trait-Shifts in Coral Reef Community Quantifying Global Potential for Coral Evolutionary Response to Climate Change Factors Influencing Persistence and Recovery of Coral Reefs Gaia Carenini & Louis Bodot The Future of Corals subject to Climate Change February 1, 2023 6/18
7. Evolution and Connectivity influence the Persistence and Recovery of Coral Reefs Global Warming Decreases Connectivity among Coral Populations Climate Change Drives Trait-Shifts in Coral Reef Community Quantifying Global Potential for Coral Evolutionary Response to Climate Change McManus et al (Global Change Biology, 2021) OBJECTIVE: This article aims to examine factors determining coral adaptation to warming across reef networks. Gaia Carenini & Louis Bodot The Future of Corals subject to Climate Change February 1, 2023 7/18
8. Evolution and Connectivity influence the Persistence and Recovery of Coral Reefs Global Warming Decreases Connectivity among Coral Populations Climate Change Drives Trait-Shifts in Coral Reef Community Quantifying Global Potential for Coral Evolutionary Response to Climate Change McManus et al (Global Change Biology, 2021) RESULTS: This article shows that: Evolution can be critical in preventing extinction and facilitating the long-term recovery of coral communities in all regions; The strength of immigration to a reef and current sea surface temperature robustly predict reef persistence across all reef networks and across temperature projection; These findings suggest that coral reef persistence depends on: ecology; evolution; habitat network characteristics. Gaia Carenini & Louis Bodot The Future of Corals subject to Climate Change February 1, 2023 8/18
9. Evolution and Connectivity influence the Persistence and Recovery of Coral Reefs Global Warming Decreases Connectivity among Coral Populations Climate Change Drives Trait-Shifts in Coral Reef Community Quantifying Global Potential for Coral Evolutionary Response to Climate Change Connectivity Gaia Carenini & Louis Bodot The Future of Corals subject to Climate Change February 1, 2023 9/18
10. Evolution and Connectivity influence the Persistence and Recovery of Coral Reefs Global Warming Decreases Connectivity among Coral Populations Climate Change Drives Trait-Shifts in Coral Reef Community Quantifying Global Potential for Coral Evolutionary Response to Climate Change Figueiredo et al (Nature Climate Change, 2022) OBJECTIVE: This article studies connectivity among corals under climate change through empirically calibrated biophysical model of coral larval dispersal. Gaia Carenini & Louis Bodot The Future of Corals subject to Climate Change February 1, 2023 10/18
11. Evolution and Connectivity influence the Persistence and Recovery of Coral Reefs Global Warming Decreases Connectivity among Coral Populations Climate Change Drives Trait-Shifts in Coral Reef Community Quantifying Global Potential for Coral Evolutionary Response to Climate Change Figueiredo et al (Nature Climate Change, 2022) RESULTS: This article shows that: Increased larval mortality and reduced competency duration under 2 degrees warming alter dispersal patterns; Projected changes in large scale currents have limited influence on dispersal patterns. Gaia Carenini & Louis Bodot The Future of Corals subject to Climate Change February 1, 2023 11/18
12. Evolution and Connectivity influence the Persistence and Recovery of Coral Reefs Global Warming Decreases Connectivity among Coral Populations Climate Change Drives Trait-Shifts in Coral Reef Community Quantifying Global Potential for Coral Evolutionary Response to Climate Change Evolution Gaia Carenini & Louis Bodot The Future of Corals subject to Climate Change February 1, 2023 12/18
13. Evolution and Connectivity influence the Persistence and Recovery of Coral Reefs Global Warming Decreases Connectivity among Coral Populations Climate Change Drives Trait-Shifts in Coral Reef Community Quantifying Global Potential for Coral Evolutionary Response to Climate Change Kubicek et al (Nature Scientific Reports, 2019) OBJECTIVE:This article applies a spatially explicit, individual-based model to explore three critical life history traits: heat tolerance, competitiveness and growth performance. Gaia Carenini & Louis Bodot The Future of Corals subject to Climate Change February 1, 2023 13/18
14. Evolution and Connectivity influence the Persistence and Recovery of Coral Reefs Global Warming Decreases Connectivity among Coral Populations Climate Change Drives Trait-Shifts in Coral Reef Community Quantifying Global Potential for Coral Evolutionary Response to Climate Change Kubicek et al (Nature Scientific Reports, 2019) RESULTS: This article shows that: Even under the most favorable IPCC scenario, shifts in trait space are likely; Coral communities will mainly consist of small numbers of temperature tolerant and fast growing species; Species composition will be determined by heat tolerance, with competitiveness playing a subordinate role. Gaia Carenini & Louis Bodot The Future of Corals subject to Climate Change February 1, 2023 14/18
15. Evolution and Connectivity influence the Persistence and Recovery of Coral Reefs Global Warming Decreases Connectivity among Coral Populations Climate Change Drives Trait-Shifts in Coral Reef Community Quantifying Global Potential for Coral Evolutionary Response to Climate Change Logan et al (Nature Climate Change, 2021) OBJECTIVE:This article propose a global ecological and evolutionary model of competing branching and mounding coral morphotypes to examine the adaptive role of algal symbionts in setting coral thermal tolerance under global warming and ocean acidification. Gaia Carenini & Louis Bodot The Future of Corals subject to Climate Change February 1, 2023 15/18
16. Evolution and Connectivity influence the Persistence and Recovery of Coral Reefs Global Warming Decreases Connectivity among Coral Populations Climate Change Drives Trait-Shifts in Coral Reef Community Quantifying Global Potential for Coral Evolutionary Response to Climate Change Logan et al (Nature Climate Change, 2021) This article shows that: Symbiont shuffling (+1 degree) was more effective than symbiont evolution in delaying coral cover declines with the largest differences occurring mid-century; Stronger warming rates associated with high- emissions scenarios outpace the ability of these adaptive processes and limit coral persistence; Acidification has a small impact on rates of reef degradation relative to warming rate. Gaia Carenini & Louis Bodot The Future of Corals subject to Climate Change February 1, 2023 16/18
17. Evolution and Connectivity influence the Persistence and Recovery of Coral Reefs Global Warming Decreases Connectivity among Coral Populations Climate Change Drives Trait-Shifts in Coral Reef Community Quantifying Global Potential for Coral Evolutionary Response to Climate Change The Future of Corals: the Resulting Possible Scenarios Rapid adaptation and rapid genetic evolution of corals to adapt to the new conditions (Improbable); Displacement of the corals in environment with more favourable conditions (Probable but Partial); Rarefaction followed by recovery of corals’ population (Probable but Partial); Complete or partial disappearance of coral reefs (Strongly Probable). Gaia Carenini & Louis Bodot The Future of Corals subject to Climate Change February 1, 2023 17/18
18. Evolution and Connectivity influence the Persistence and Recovery of Coral Reefs Global Warming Decreases Connectivity among Coral Populations Climate Change Drives Trait-Shifts in Coral Reef Community Quantifying Global Potential for Coral Evolutionary Response to Climate Change Questions? Figure: Left photo by Gary Bell, right photo Roger Grace. Gaia Carenini & Louis Bodot The Future of Corals subject to Climate Change February 1, 2023 18/18