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Transcript

  1. 1

  2. 2

  3. 3

  4. 4 Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets

    availability Marthe Veldhuis Data Scientist / Machine Learning Engineer Nederlandse Spoorwegen

  5. 1. Planning your route 2. Paddling to the destination 3.

    Staying in tandem Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 5

  6. Planning your route Part 1

  7. Determine succes at the start 7 Give certainty Provide a

    warning

  8. Talk to people ▪ End-users Gear up for success: Practical

    insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 8

  9. Talk to people ▪ End-users ▪ Indirect users Gear up

    for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 9

  10. Talk to people ▪ End-users ▪ Indirect users ▪ Colleagues

    Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 10

  11. Talk to people ▪ End-users ▪ Indirect users ▪ Colleagues

    ▪ User eXperience Designers Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 11

  12. Involve UXD from the start 12 Gear up for success:

    Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability

  13. Paddling to the destination Part 2

  14. Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability

    14 Start simple

  15. Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability

    15 “Last week” model: 𝑅2 = 0,50 MAE = 28 Use the right metrics

  16. Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability

    16 Use the right metrics XGBoost model: 𝑅2 = 0,54 MAE = 28

  17. Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability

    17 Use the right metrics

  18. Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability

    18 Use the right metrics “Last week” model: low range recall = 63%

  19. Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability

    19 Use the right metrics XGBoost model: low range recall = 28%

  20. Staying in tandem Part 3

  21. Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability

    21 Translate your metrics to intuitive measures Forecasted situation Actual situation Warned Disappointed

  22. Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability

    22 Translate your metrics to intuitive measures

  23. 1. Planning your route • Determine succes • Talk to

    people • Involve UXD 2. Paddling to the destination • Start simple • Use the right metrics 3. Staying in tandem • Translate your metrics Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 23