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NS Data Expo 2024
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Marketing OGZ
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September 17, 2024
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NS Data Expo 2024
Marketing OGZ
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September 17, 2024
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Transcript
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4 Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets
availability Marthe Veldhuis Data Scientist / Machine Learning Engineer Nederlandse Spoorwegen
1. Planning your route 2. Paddling to the destination 3.
Staying in tandem Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 5
Planning your route Part 1
Determine succes at the start 7 Give certainty Provide a
warning
Talk to people ▪ End-users Gear up for success: Practical
insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 8
Talk to people ▪ End-users ▪ Indirect users Gear up
for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 9
Talk to people ▪ End-users ▪ Indirect users ▪ Colleagues
Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 10
Talk to people ▪ End-users ▪ Indirect users ▪ Colleagues
▪ User eXperience Designers Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 11
Involve UXD from the start 12 Gear up for success:
Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability
Paddling to the destination Part 2
Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability
14 Start simple
Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability
15 “Last week” model: 𝑅2 = 0,50 MAE = 28 Use the right metrics
Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability
16 Use the right metrics XGBoost model: 𝑅2 = 0,54 MAE = 28
Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability
17 Use the right metrics
Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability
18 Use the right metrics “Last week” model: low range recall = 63%
Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability
19 Use the right metrics XGBoost model: low range recall = 28%
Staying in tandem Part 3
Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability
21 Translate your metrics to intuitive measures Forecasted situation Actual situation Warned Disappointed
Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability
22 Translate your metrics to intuitive measures
1. Planning your route • Determine succes • Talk to
people • Involve UXD 2. Paddling to the destination • Start simple • Use the right metrics 3. Staying in tandem • Translate your metrics Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 23