11.3 Slides

Transcript

1. Mark Lautman, CEcD
   BR&E
   How the game has changed and what can you do about it?
   1
   

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2. A Bigger, Faster,
   More Challenging
   Game
   • Think Bigger
   • Plan Better
   • Be Nimble
   2
   

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3. CHANGES TO THE GAME
   1. The Phantom Workforce
   You think the workers are there but they’re not.
   2. Rising Attrition
   You need to create way more new economic base
   jobs every year than you used to
   3. Decoupling of Wages from GDP
   We may need a new economic system soon.
   4. New Program Approaches
   Remote work may be the greatest source of new
   economic base jobs now.
   5. Precision Planning Algorithms
   Plan, manage and account for results better or
   prepare to die.
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4. THE PHANTOM WORKFORCE
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5. Shortage of Qualified Workers
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6. WR&E
   Workforce Retention & Expansion
   

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7. CHANGES TO THE GAME
   1. The Phantom Workforce
   You think the workers are there but they’re not.
   2. Rising Attrition
   You need to create way more new economic base
   jobs every year than you used to
   3. Decoupling of Wages from GDP
   We may need a new economic system soon.
   4. New Program Approaches
   Remote work may be the greatest source of new
   economic base jobs now.
   5. Precision Planning Algorithms
   Plan, manage and account for results better or
   prepare to die.
   7
   

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8. Rising Attrition
   1. Automation
   2. New Business Models
   3. Global Competition
   4. Big box retailing – Internet Sales
   5. Boomer Business Owner Succession
   6. Pandemics – Changing Demand Patterns
   7. Catastrophic events
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9. Implications of
   Rising Attrition
   1. Increasing rate of attrition: acceleration, automation, business
   models, disruption, boomer owned business attrition…
   2. Decreasing economic base job multiplier: as the proportion of
   service sector jobs supported by each economic base job continues
   to shrink from big box retailing, internet sales and permanent decline
   in service sector consumption from pandemic impacts…
   9
   

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10. CHANGES TO THE GAME
    1. The Phantom Workforce
    You think the workers are there but they’re not.
    2. Rising Attrition
    You need to create way more new economic base
    jobs every year than you used to
    3. Decoupling of Wages from GDP
    We may need a new economic system soon.
    4. New Program Approaches
    Remote work may be the greatest source of new
    economic base jobs now.
    5. Precision Planning Algorithms
    Plan, manage and account for results better or
    prepare to die.
    10
    

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11. Decoupling
    of Wages
    from GDP
    We may need a new
    economic system soon.
    11
    

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12. CHANGES TO THE GAME
    1. The Phantom Workforce
    You think the workers are there but they’re not.
    2. Rising Attrition
    You need to create way more new economic base
    jobs every year than you used to
    3. Decoupling of Wages from GDP
    We may need a new economic system soon.
    4. New Program Approaches
    Remote work may be the greatest source of new
    economic base jobs now.
    5. Precision Planning Algorithms
    Plan, manage and account for results better or
    prepare to die.
    12
    

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13. BR&E + C WR&E REMOTE
    WORK
    New Program Approaches
    Conversion to E-base Workforce Retention
    and Expansion
    Retain and Expand
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14. Program Theater Organic
    Current
    Capacity
    Business as
    Usual
    With Additional
    Support Total Potential
    Employer 500 1500 2000 1500 3500
    Government 500 0 500 500 1000
    Visitor 500 1,500 2000 500 2,500
    Retirement 400 200 600 600 1,200
    Extractives & Energy 0 50 50 80 130
    Remote work 50 0 50 2,000 2,050
    Film/DM 100 200 300 0 300
    Startup 20 150 170 150 320
    Agriculture 50 0 50 250 300
    Import Substitution - - - -
    TOTALS 2,120 3,600 5,720 5,580 11,300
    Job Creation Potential – Remote Work
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15. E-Base Jobs Potential:
    180,284
    Over by
    28,949 Jobs
    E-Base Jobs Needed:
    151,335
    New Mexico Elevated Effort
    Legislative Jobs Council
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16. CHANGES TO THE GAME
    1. The Phantom Workforce
    You think the workers are there but they’re not.
    2. Rising Attrition
    You need to create way more new economic base
    jobs every year than you used to
    3. Decoupling of Wages from GDP
    We may need a new economic system soon.
    4. New Program Approaches
    Remote work may be the greatest source of new
    economic base jobs now.
    5. Precision Planning Algorithms
    Plan, manage and account for results better or
    prepare to die.
    16
    

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17. ?
    If you could dramatically improve “one thing”
    about the way we practice economic
    development today, that would boost our
    productivity and credibility, what would it be?
    What things do we not do enough of, don’t do at all or don’t do well enough?
    

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18. Precision Planning Algorithms
    

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19. Program Levels
    1. Procuring
    2. Responding
    3. Encouraging
    4. Faking
    5. Missing
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20. Factor of Production Gap Program Areas
    Job Creation Program Theaters
    Marketing & Sales
    Apparatus
    Marketing
    Sales
    Completion
    Hard Assets
    Land
    Buildings
    Infrastructure
    Workforce
    Qualified workers
    Housing
    Education
    Community Quality
    Leadership &
    Business Climate
    Leadership
    Tax and regulatory climate
    Planning
    Organization
    Solowork
    Extractives
    & Energy
    Startup
    Retirement
    Visitor Film
    Employer Agriculture
    Federal
    Government
    $
    Capital
    Equity
    Debt
    Community Program Apparatus
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21. Could your funding request for BR&E
    get support from the Sharks?
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22. Shark Tank Overarching
    Program Apparatus
    1. How do you define economic development?
    2. How many economic base jobs does the community need to save or create?
    3. How many could be saved or created with a reasonable amount of additional support?
    (How many from your BR&E program?)
    4. Does total job creation potential meet, fall short, or exceed your needs? By how much?
    What is your predicament?
    5. Which factor of production gaps must be cured for the potential new jobs to materialize?
    What specific interventions, programs, projects and policy changes are required? When
    must they be completed? Who is on the hook for completion?
    6. What changes need to be made to your community’s economic development apparatus to
    ensure the planning, underwriting, management and accounting gets done?
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23. Shark Tank For BR&E Programs
    1. How many economic base jobs does the community need to restore or create in order to
    recover from the economic crisis?
    2. How do you define BR&E? (scope, primary metric, methodology, level of effort…)
    3. How many economic base jobs could your BR&E program save, expand or convert during
    the planning period?
    4. Which job creation program theaters could benefit from a formal BR&E program?
    5. Which factor of production gaps must be cured for the potential establishments/jobs to be
    saved, expanded or converted?
    6. What specific interventions, programs, projects and policy changes will be needed to cure
    the gaps?
    7. How do you propose to underwrite, manage and account for each critical program
    element.
    8. What organizational changes are implied?
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24. Do You Have A Real Plan?
    Bubble Diagram Construction Drawings
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25. Do you
    have the
    marketing
    and sales
    apparatus?
    25
    

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26. CHANGES TO THE GAME
    1. The Phantom Workforce
    You think the workers are there but they’re not.
    2. Rising Attrition
    You need to create way more new economic base
    jobs every year than you used to
    3. Decoupling of Wages from GDP
    We may need a new economic system soon.
    4. New Program Approaches
    Remote work may be the greatest source of new
    economic base jobs now.
    5. Precision Planning Algorithms
    Plan, manage and account for results better or
    prepare to die.
    26
    

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27. Mark Lautman, CEcD
    mark@marklautman.com
    

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