The Basic Course - Week 3 Case Study - Program Theaters

Transcript

1. 1 Page The Job Creation Theaters
2. 2 P a g e How many new economic base jobs can your community create during the planning period? ?
3. 3 Page • What is a program theater? • Why do we call them theaters and not something else? • Why use program theaters instead of industry targets for estimating potential? • How many theaters are there? How are they differentiated? • Why is it important to treat each theater separately? • How do they fit into a community’s economic development strategy? • Which organizations should do the work of each theater? • How many new economic base jobs could your community create during the next planning period? • When you add up the potential of each, is it enough to meet your stated needs? • What changes to the mix and proportion of program theaters in your community’s apparatus should be the focus of your planning effort? Economic Base Job Creation Potential
4. T A P U M A An Expanded Planning Process
5. • A facilitation team leads a small group of local stakeholders through a one-day cursory diagnostic session to outline the dimensions of the economic crisis and the potential of different program strategy options for recovery within a pre- defined timeframe. • This exercise will cover the first three steps of the CELab’s assessment process: 1. Coherence Agree on the theoretical construct, nomenclature and process 2. Needs Agree on the number of new economic-base jobs that must be created 3. Potential Agree on a ranked list of sectors with the highest potential for generating the economic-base jobs 4. Factor of Production Gaps Agree on which factors will constrain economic base job growth 5. Actions Agree on specific programs, projects, policies and priorities The Flash Assessment Process
6. IDENTITY, MISSION • Jurisdiction covered: Las Cruces MSA • Mission: Develop a crisis assessment of the scope and scale of the impact that COVID- 19 will have on the local economy, preparing leaders for their response. SCOPE • Purpose: A comprehensive assessment of the job creation needs and potential specifically in response to economic loss. • Findings will be integrated with regional and state assessments. • Goals: Economic recovery from the ensuing recession. RULES • Unanimous consensus estimates are based on “wisdom of crowds”. Note: This is a cursory session. • Validation is achieved by having one or more experts evaluate estimates and findings. Coherence
7. 1. Economic Base – 10 Program Theaters 2. Service Sector Job Creation – 10 Program Theaters 3. Factors of Production – 5 Program Theaters Framework: The Job Creation Program Apparatus
8. Are your economic development efforts encouraged,, incentivized or procured ? Level of Causality
9. POTENTIAL Additional job creation from maximum effort? How Many New Economic Base Jobs Can Come from Each Relevant Program Theater CURRENT CAPACITY Job creation expected from existing program effort? NO PROGRAMS Organic, would come with or without existing program efforts?
10. Bubble Diagram Construction Drawings At What Level Do You Need to Plan? 42 P a g e Factor of Production Gap Program Areas Job Creation Program Theaters Marketing & Sales Apparatus Marketing Sales Completion Hard Assets Land Buildings Infrastructure Workforce Qualified workers Housing Education Community Quality Leadership & Business Climate Leadership Tax and regulatory climate Planning Community Program Apparatus $ Capital Equity Debt Public Private Solowork Extractives/ Energy Startup Retirement Visitor Film Employer Agriculture Fed Gov’t Mainstreet Supply Dev Retail Startup Buy Local Grow local Institutional Procurement Utilities Construction Economic-base Service Sector Institutional Recruiting 42 P a g e Factor of Production Gap Program Areas Job Creation Program Theaters Marketing & Sales Apparatus Marketing Sales Completion Hard Assets Land Buildings Infrastructure Workforce Qualified workers Housing Education Community Quality Leadership & Business Climate Leadership Tax and regulatory climate Planning $ Capital Equity Debt Public Private Remote Work Extractives/ Energy Startup Retirement Visitor Film Employer Agriculture Fed Gov’t Mainstreet Supply Dev Retail Startup Buy Local Grow local Institutional Procurement Utilities Construction Economic-base Service Sector Institutional Recruiting Community Program Apparatus
11. Economic Base (10) and/or Service Sector (10) A program theater is a category of job creation program efforts that share common organizational and operational characteristics such as: • Business models, marketing and sales approaches • Agents, organizations, departments, constituents • Types of jobs and economic sectors • Professional knowledge and expertise required of management and staff • Metrics and ROI methodologies used to measure progress and results • Specific factors of production that must be tended Job Creation Program Theaters
12. Economic Base and/or Service Sector A factor of production program theater taxonomy is used to help the community plan and manage the development of the critical capacity and comparative advantage required for each job creation program to meet their annual goals. FOP Program Theaters are distinguished by: • Type of capacity needed • Agents, organizations, departments, constituents involved • Professional knowledge and expertise required of management and staff • Metrics and ROI methodologies used to measure progress and results Factors of Production Program Theaters
13. Program Theaters Description Employer Employer attraction and business retention and expansion Government Federal jobs, healthcare, research, transfer payments (over state share) Extractives & Energy Mining, oil and gas, and power production for export Visitor Destination tourism, events, conventions, business and transit services Film & Digital Media Film making, TV production, Video games, Start Up Innovation, entrepreneurship, tech transfer Retirement Attraction and retention of affluent retirees Agriculture Growing food, fiber, landscaping material, fisheries, forestry Remote Work Freelancers, gig workers, 1099 workers, W2s, sole proprietors, Economic Base Job Creation – Program Theaters
14. Program Theaters Potential Biz as Usual Implied Action Employer 32,150 21,000 Overhaul/Elevate Fed Gov 18,590 5,150 Plan E&E 9,750 225 Plan Visitor 8,700 0 Overhaul/Elevate Solo 7,000 6,375 Pilot/Fund Film/DM 5,300 0 Plan Startup 2,000 1,530 Plan Retirement 1,500 500 Pilot/Fund Ag 600 300 Plan *Estimates refined from 2016 Jobs Council deliberations Economic Base Job Creation Potential
15. Theater Potential Current Capacity Theater Status Implied Actions Employer 3,500 1500 Grossly underfunded, understaffed, lacking a plan and accounting Increase the scope, scale and rigor of existing program efforts Government 2,000 500 No plan, no program New formal program; strategy, plan, underwriting E&E ??? ??? Program efforts are limited to a few communities Visitor ??? ??? Well planned, funded, Market recovery strategy, collaborate with allied theaters Remote Work 5,000 500 Local Cibola program systematically creating new jobs now Program must be expanded statewide Film/DM ??? ??? Most aggressive program in the country, incentive dependent Revaluate program ROI to defend incentives Startup 500 0 No plan, programs are uncoordinated Need VC capital and a new program Retirement 200 0 Successful program underway in Las Cruces Need strategy for elevation of existing PR Agriculture ??? ??? Total ??? ??? Economic Base Job Creation Potential by Theater
16. DEFINITION: Recruiting, retaining and expanding private sector employers that derive most of their income from out of state. SUB THEATERS: Attraction, business retention and expansion (BR&E). BUSINESS MODELS: Target, recruit, retain and expand… AGENTS, ORGANIZATIONS, DEPARTMENTS, CONSTITUENTS: COC, EDO, EcD Depts. TYPES OF JOBS AND ECONOMIC SECTORS: Manufacturing, logistics, exported services. PROFESSIONAL KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISE: Site selection intelligence, promotion, sales case management, deal structuring, organizational management. METRICS AND ROI METHODOLOGIES USED TO MEASURE PROGRESS AND RESULTS: Jobs created, retained, lost, average wage and benefit levels, full employment, transactions, investment, square feet of real estate, commercial tax revenue-assessment. FACTORS OF PRODUCTION THAT MUST BE TENDED TO: Development of marketing and sales apparatus, industrial and office inventory, project and program finance, workforce development, housing, business climate and incentives. POTENTIAL OVERLAP WITH OTHER THEATERS: Agriculture, Extractives and Energy, Government. Employer Theater
17. Employer Theater
18. Government Theater DEFINITION: Growing the economic base by attraction and retention and expansion of federal and state funding/operations and projects - resulting in a net increase in federal derived income and economic activity. SUB THEATERS: Attraction, Business Retention and Expansion. BUSINESS MODELS: Target, recruit, retain and expand. AGENTS, ORGANIZATIONS, DEPARTMENTS, CONSTITUENTS: COC, EDO, BRAC committees, congressional delegation teams, special program units. TYPES OF JOBS AND ECONOMIC SECTORS: Jobs, projects and transfer payments from federal agencies…under specific circumstances… PROFESSIONAL KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISE: Knowledge of federal budget and procurement process, grant writing, lobbying, proposal writing. METRICS AND ROI METHODOLOGIES USED TO MEASURE PROGRESS AND RESULTS: Transactions Jobs created, retained, investment, lost, average wage and benefit levels, full employment. FACTORS OF PRODUCTION THAT MUST BE TENDED TO: Congressional leadership, organizational support, lobbying capacity, shovel ready project planning, grant writing and administration capabilities, real estate inventory, project and program finance, workforce development, housing, business climate and incentives. POTENTIAL OVERLAP WITH OTHER THEATERS: Employer, Agriculture, Extractives and Energy, Startup.
20. Extractives & Energy Theater DEFINITION: Grow the economic base by extracting, processing and exporting energy and minerals. SUB THEATERS: Extraction; mining, oil and gas…Energy power production and distribution, fuel production and exportation. BUSINESS MODELS: Research and development, entrepreneurship, acceleration, finance, arbitrage. AGENTS, ORGANIZATIONS, DEPARTMENTS, CONSTITUENTS: COC, EDO, Energy and Minerals Dept, industry associations. TYPES OF JOBS AND ECONOMIC SECTORS: Exploration, mining, processing, refining, pipeline development, storage, transloading, manufacturing, logistics, power generation, power transmission, transportation. PROFESSIONAL KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISE: Site selection intelligence, promotion, sales case management, deal structuring, organizational management. METRICS AND ROI METHODOLOGIES USED TO MEASURE PROGRESS AND RESULTS: Jobs created, retained, lost, average wage and benefit levels, market share, transactions, investment, commercial and tax revenue. FACTORS OF PRODUCTION THAT MUST BE TENDED TO: Permitting, workforce development, housing, industrial and office inventory, project and program finance. POTENTIAL OVERLAP WITH OTHER THEATERS: Employer, Agriculture, Visitor, Government.
22. Visitor Theater DEFINITION: Grow the number of economic base by increasing the number of visitors and their spending. new jobs created and increased commercial tax base from growth in the scope and scale of the annual visitor spend. SUB THEATERS: Tourism, business, transit. BUSINESS MODELS: Promotion and fulfillment, destination facilities, events. AGENTS, ORGANIZATIONS, DEPARTMENTS, CONSTITUENTS: Convention and visitor bureaus, tourism agencies, special events and attraction organizations, hospitality industry associations, lodgers tax boards, COC, EDO, Tourism Depts. TYPES OF JOBS AND ECONOMIC SECTORS: Manufacturing, logistics, exported services. PROFESSIONAL KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISE: Site selection intelligence, promotion, sales case management, deal structuring, organizational management. METRICS AND ROI METHODOLOGIES USED TO MEASURE PROGRESS AND RESULTS: Increased visitor volume, length of stay, average daily spend, off- session balance, repeat visits…assessed valuation, % of local services from out of state zip codes. FACTORS OF PRODUCTION THAT MUST BE TENDED TO: Development of marketing and sales apparatus, industrial and office inventory, project and program finance, workforce development, housing, business climate and incentives. POTENTIAL OVERLAP WITH OTHER THEATERS: Retirement, Remote Work, Film and Digital Media.
24. Remote Work Theater DEFINITION: Creating new economic base jobs by placing local residents in remote work jobs and recruiting out of state remote workers. SUB THEATERS: Placement, Soloprenuership, Recruiting. BUSINESS MODELS: 1.) Local resident target, train and place, retention, 2.) Solopreneur and conversion, 3.) Recruiting from out of state, 4.) Surrogate platform, 5.) Hard to employ and entry level. AGENTS, ORGANIZATIONS, DEPARTMENTS, CONSTITUENTS: Solowork program franchise, co-working paces, public libraries, COC,EDO, workforce development agencies, universities and colleges, corrections. TYPES OF JOBS AND ECONOMIC SECTORS: Any work remote employees or sole proprietors are willing to produce from home, co-working center or mobile platform. PROFESSIONAL KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISE: Site selection intelligence, promotion, sales case management, deal structuring, organizational management. METRICS AND ROI METHODOLOGIES USED TO MEASURE PROGRESS AND RESULTS: Jobs created, retained, lost, average wage and benefit levels, full employment, transactions, investment, square feet of real estate, commercial tax revenue-assessment. FACTORS OF PRODUCTION THAT MUST BE TENDED TO: Development of marketing and sales apparatus, industrial and office inventory, project and program finance, workforce development, housing, business climate and incentives. POTENTIAL OVERLAP WITH OTHER THEATERS: Visitor, Startup, Import Substitution, Retirement.
26. Film & Digital Media Theater DEFINITION: Growing the economic base by producing film, TV and Video Games. BUSINESS MODELS: Target, recruit, retain and expand. AGENTS, ORGANIZATIONS, DEPARTMENTS, CONSTITUENTS: Local film office, state program offices, studios, Unions. TYPES OF JOBS AND ECONOMIC SECTORS: Construction, logistics, catering, film crew. PROFESSIONAL KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISE: Site selection, promotion, sales case management, deal structuring, organizational management. METRICS AND ROI METHODOLOGIES USED TO MEASURE PROGRESS AND RESULTS: Transactions, films produced, rent from locations, FTE employment direct and induced. FACTORS OF PRODUCTION THAT MUST BE TENDED TO: Incentives, marketing and sales apparatus, location and studio inventory, crew capacity, housing, business climate. POTENTIAL OVERLAP WITH OTHER THEATERS: Visitor, Employer, Remote Work.
28. Startup Theater DEFINITION: Grow the economic base by starting new e-base businesses that hire more than one person; new jobs/enterprises started or converted, grow a community of entrepreneurs and investors, develop a community reputation for innovation. SUB THEATERS: New economic base employers started, existing employers converted from service sector to economic base, intellectual property developed and licensed. BUSINESS MODELS: Research and development, entrepreneurship, acceleration, finance, arbitrage. AGENTS, ORGANIZATIONS, DEPARTMENTS, CONSTITUENTS: Universities, accelerators, incubators, VCs, Angel Investment groups, industry associations, maker spaces, COC, EDO, EcD Depts. TYPES OF JOBS AND ECONOMIC SECTORS: Exported products and services. PROFESSIONAL KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISE: Product research, market intelligence, business planning, deal structuring, organizational management. METRICS AND ROI METHODOLOGIES USED TO MEASURE PROGRESS AND RESULTS: Rate of ideation, rate of and ratio of product and business concept development, start up, capitalization, commercial tax, jobs created, retained, lost, average wage and benefit levels. FACTORS OF PRODUCTION THAT MUST BE TENDED TO: Levels of research and development investment, intellectual property legal expertise, all stages of enterprise financing system, industrial and office inventory, business climate and incentives. POTENTIAL OVERLAP WITH OTHER THEATERS: Government, Employer, Remote Work.
30. Retirement Theater DEFINITION: Grow the economic base by attracting new full time resident affluent retirees. SUB THEATERS: Attraction and retention. BUSINESS MODELS: Public, Private, Public-private. AGENTS, ORGANIZATIONS, DEPARTMENTS, CONSTITUENTS: COC, EDO, EcD Depts. TYPES OF JOBS AND ECONOMIC SECTORS: Manufacturing, logistics, exported services. PROFESSIONAL KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISE: Site selection intelligence, promotion, sales case management, deal structuring, organizational management. METRICS AND ROI METHODOLOGIES USED TO MEASURE PROGRESS AND RESULTS: Jobs created, retained, lost, average wage and benefit levels, full employment, transactions, investment, square feet of real estate, commercial tax revenue-assessment. FACTORS OF PRODUCTION THAT MUST BE TENDED TO: Development of marketing and sales apparatus, industrial and office inventory, project and program finance, workforce development, housing, business climate and incentives. POTENTIAL OVERLAP WITH OTHER THEATERS: Employer, Agriculture, Visitor, Government.
32. Agriculture Theater DEFINITION: Growing the economic base by producing more food and fiber for export. SUB THEATERS: Extraction; mining, oil and gas…Energy power production and distribution, fuel production and exportation. BUSINESS MODELS: Farming, ranching, fisheries, forestry. AGENTS, ORGANIZATIONS, DEPARTMENTS, CONSTITUENTS: Agricultural Extension Services. TYPES OF JOBS AND ECONOMIC SECTORS: Farming, ranching, greenhouses, vertical farming, fisheries, forestry, international consulting etc. PROFESSIONAL KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISE: Site selection intelligence, promotion, sales case management, deal structuring, organizational management. METRICS AND ROI METHODOLOGIES USED TO MEASURE PROGRESS AND RESULTS: Land under cultivation, exported production, employment, number of family farms and ranches. FACTORS OF PRODUCTION THAT MUST BE TENDED TO: Market development, environment, water, land, finance, workforce development, housing, business and regulatory climate, incentives. POTENTIAL OVERLAP WITH OTHER THEATERS: Visitor (game and fish), Employer (food processing), startup, energy and extractives.
34. Import Substitution Theater DEFINITION: Grow the local economy by replacing goods and services purchased out of state by local employers, institutions and households with local producer/suppliers; leakage prevention. BUSINESS MODELS: Corporate and Institutional purchasing repatriation, consumer buy local. AGENTS, ORGANIZATIONS, DEPARTMENTS, CONSTITUENTS: COC, EDO, Local government, trade associations. TYPES OF JOBS AND ECONOMIC SECTORS: Any products or services that can be produced locally. PROFESSIONAL KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISE: Corporate and institutional purchasing-procurement, sales case management. METRICS AND ROI METHODOLOGIES USED TO MEASURE PROGRESS AND RESULTS: Value of goods and services repatriated, new Jobs created, retained, lost. FACTORS OF PRODUCTION THAT MUST BE TENDED TO: Marketing and sales organization, local supplier candidate inventory, business climate and incentives. POTENTIAL OVERLAP WITH OTHER THEATERS: Employer, Remote Work, Startup.