The Climate Smart Agriculture Model Project

The Climate Smart Agriculture Model Project

Transcript

1. The Climate Smart Agriculture Model Project Travis Franck, PhD Climate Interactive COP 22 Marrakech
3. Our cutting-edge tools help people see what works to address the biggest challenges facing our lives on Earth.
4. Used by Policymakers “I have to tell you — [C-ROADS] works, it is important, and it is already getting broad dissemination, ... I used it!” Senator John Kerry
6. Multiple displacement and resilience in DRC
7. In the last 6 months: +7000 World Climate participants in Africa. +49 ran a World Climate simulation themselves World Climate Simulation across Africa
8. Real-time decision support tools are uniquely useful in helping busy leaders find the ‘sweet spots’, where these multiple goals intersect.
9. Climate Smart Agriculture Project
10. 0 1 2 3 4 5 Billion People Population Projections (UN) Population Trends Latin America Oceania North America Europe 2015 2050 2100
11. Emissions in Africa are Different than Global Source: WRI’s CAIT Database
12. Important Question How do we meet dual goals of food security and emissions reductions?
13. Three Pillars of Climate Smart Agriculture 1. Higher Production to meet food security and economic needs of growing population, especially given challenges due to climate 2. Lower Emissions to meet national commitments and to contribute to the solutions to climate change 3. Greater Resilience to the increased shocks accompanying climate change
14. Climate Smart Agriculture Big Question – How can smart decisions about agricultural development in Africa contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation?
15. Why Modeling? – For this project, System Dynamics modeling is a means to: – Guide research – Collect knowledge and data – Build theory – Test policies – With a goal to test interventions to improve agriculture
16. Decision Support Tool to Improve Climate-smart Agriculture Policies Case study: Ethiopia
17. Ethiopia plans for Agriculture Emissions to be 95 instead of 185 Mt/year in 2030 Image: Ethiopia 2011 (2015 version similar) Ag Emissions in 2030: 185 – 90 = 95 MtCO2e
18. History, Goal, BAU: Ethiopia 2015 Communication to UNFCCC ; Demand Growth estimated Ethiopia – Food & Emission Reference Modes
19. Ethiopia – Food & Emission Reference Modes History, Goal, BAU: Ethiopia 2015 Communication to UNFCCC ; Demand Growth estimated
20. Policy Proposals from Ethiopia 2015 Source: Ethiopia 2015
21. A Simulation that Allows Policy Tests
22. Direction for the Climate-smart Agriculture Tool in 2017 (and Beyond)
23. History, Goal, BAU: Ethiopia 2015 Communication to UNFCCC ; Demand Growth estimated Ethiopia – Food & Emission Reference Modes
24. Ethiopia – Food & Emission Reference Modes History, Goal, BAU: Ethiopia 2015 Communication to UNFCCC ; Demand Growth estimated
25. Emissions: Morocco 2016 Communication to UNFCCC , Food Hist: MoA, Demand growth estimated Morocco – Food & Emission Reference Modes
26. Emissions: Morocco 2016 Communication to UNFCCC , Food Hist: MoA, Demand growth estimated Morocco – Food & Emission Reference Modes
27. Angola – Food & Emission Reference Modes Emissions: Angola 2016 INDC, Food: FAO Stat, Demand growth estimated
28. Next Steps – Different types of policy and changes – Land use and explicit limits – Imports and exports – Population scenarios – Improved technology / practice diffusion – User Interface and graphs
29. Later Steps – Emissions from land use and soil carbon – Soil nutrients and degradation – Revenue and role in economy – Resilience to shocks – Priorities that emerge from working with partners
30. Relation to Land Use and Emissions Cropland Pasture Forest Carbon Storage Varies in Each Land Use Losses to Erosion, Urbanization, Desertification Degraded Degraded Degraded
31. Our Vision A unifying framework to explore possible futures and decide on agriculture policy, connecting specific climate-smart agriculture actions to national outcomes What we need partners in Africa and around the world: – Who need a tool for policy decisions – With knowledge or data about agriculture, land, development, resilience, climate-smart – Who want to contribute to transform African agriculture
32. Climate Smart Agriculture System
33. Thank you! Questions? Travis Franck tfranck@climateinteractive.org Younes Berrada younes.berrada@um6p.ma