Upgrade to Pro
— share decks privately, control downloads, hide ads and more …
Speaker Deck
Features
Speaker Deck
PRO
Sign in
Sign up for free
Search
Search
100kyr_cycle2.pdf
Search
m425
June 24, 2018
0
67
100kyr_cycle2.pdf
m425
June 24, 2018
Tweet
Share
More Decks by m425
See All by m425
Earthquake_TM
myoga
0
110
cambrian_explosion_and_asteroid_impact
myoga
0
93
Featured
See All Featured
The Success of Rails: Ensuring Growth for the Next 100 Years
eileencodes
34
6k
Thoughts on Productivity
jonyablonski
60
3.9k
In The Pink: A Labor of Love
frogandcode
138
21k
[RailsConf 2023 Opening Keynote] The Magic of Rails
eileencodes
14
8.4k
個人開発の失敗を避けるイケてる考え方 / tips for indie hackers
panda_program
66
14k
Refactoring Trust on Your Teams (GOTO; Chicago 2020)
rmw
26
2.3k
The Power of CSS Pseudo Elements
geoffreycrofte
62
5k
Writing Fast Ruby
sferik
622
60k
The Mythical Team-Month
searls
217
42k
Intergalactic Javascript Robots from Outer Space
tanoku
266
26k
Sharpening the Axe: The Primacy of Toolmaking
bcantrill
22
1.4k
Design and Strategy: How to Deal with People Who Don’t "Get" Design
morganepeng
117
18k
Transcript
10ສपظͷؾީมಈʹ͍ͭͯ T. M. ࣗ༝ൃද
• ̍̌ສपظͷؾީมಈ • ϛϥϯίϏοναΠΫϧʁ • ϊίΪϦܗʹݟ͑·ͤΜ͔ʁ • جຊతʹਖ਼ͷϑΟʔυόοΫ • ϑΟʔυόοΫసͷϝΧχζϜ
• ೋࢎԽૉೱͱͷؔ • ·ͱΊ • ऄ ֓ཁ
5.5MaҎ߱ͷؾީมಈ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age#/media/File:Five_Myr_Climate_Change.svg wikipediaΑΓ
ؾީมಈͱණচྔͷมԽ WikipediaΑΓ
ණচͷॖখظ ͱ ֦େظ http://www.scotese.com/earth.htm
ϛϥϯίϏοναΠΫϧ ์ૹେֶ ์ૹतۀ ʰμΠφϛοΫͳٿʱ ୈ̒ճ
μΠφϛοΫͳٿ ୈ̒ճ
μΠφϛοΫͳٿ ୈ̒ճ
μΠφϛοΫͳٿ ୈ̒ճ
ϛϥϯίϏοναΠΫϧ ؾԹͷมԽ ϊίΪϦܗ ʹݟ͑Δ WikipediaΑΓ ਖ਼ຯͷ ϛϥϯίϏονޮՌ
ؾԹͱණচྔͱଠཅͷؔ ؾԹ ණচྔ ଠཅ͔Βͷ ਖ਼ͷӨڹ ෛͷӨڹ ؾԹ্͕͕Δͱණচྔ͕ݮΓɺΞϧϕυ͕ ্͕ͬͯଠཅ͕૿͑ɺ͞ΒʹؾԹ্͕͕Δ ؾԹ͕Լ͕Δͱණচྔ͕ݮΓɺΞϧϕυ͕ Լ͕ͬͯଠཅ͕ݮΓɺ͞ΒʹؾԹ͕Լ͕Δ
ਖ਼ͷϑΟʔυόοΫ
ਖ਼ͷϑΟʔυόοΫ ؾԹɾණচྔɾଠཅͷϧʔϓ ਖ਼ͷϑΟʔυόοΫͳͷͰɺ ߦ͖ண͘ͱ͜Ζ·ͰਐΉ ණচ͕͕ͬͨ࣌ظɺଠཅޫ͕ ڧ͍தҢͰ֦େ͕ࢭ·ͬͨ ݱࡏͷঢ়ଶɺଠཅޫ͕গͳ͍ۃҬ ͷΈණচ͕͍ͬͯΔ Ͱɺస͢ΔͷͳͥͩΖ͏
ؾީมԽͷసͷλΠϛϯά ৺͕େ͖͍ͱ ଠཅ͔Βͷྔͷ ৼΕ෯େ͖͍ ৺͕େ͖͍࣌ظ ʹؾީͷมԽ͕స ͍ͯ͠Δ ͞Βʹݴ͑ଟ͘ͷ߹ సଠཅͷมԽ ͱಉظ͍ͯ͠ΔΑ͏ʹ
ݟ͑Δ
ϛϥϯίϏονޮՌ ଠཅ͔Βड͚Δͷมಈ ʮ৺ͱࡀࠩͷӨڹͷੵʯ ͱʮيಓࣼ֯ͷӨڹʯͱͷ ʹͳ͍ͬͯΔ Wikipedia ӳޠ൛ΑΓ ࣠ͷ͖ ৺ ࡀࠩ
ࡀࠩͷӨڹ
৺ͱࡀࠩͷӨڹ ଠཅ͔Βड͚ΔͷมಈͰ ʮࡀࠩͷӨڹ৺ͷ ɹࡀࠩͷ֯ͷࡾ֯ؔ ɹͱͷੵͷܗʹͳΔʯ Wikipedia ӳޠ൛ΑΓ ৺ e ࡀࠩ
e sin(w)
ණচྔͷۃେɾۃখ࣌ ϛϥϯίϏονޮՌʹΑΔมಈΛ ͖͔͚ͬʹؾީมಈͷํ͕స͢Δ
͏ҰͭͷཁҼɹ ؾԹͱCO2 ೱͷ૬ؔ http://www.venus.dti.ne.jp/~inoue-m/on_co2_2.htm#n7 ؾԹͱೋࢎԽૉೱྑ͍૬ؔΛ͍ࣔͯ͠Δ
ૉ॥ͷࣜਤ ࠇ:ࣗવͷ॥ͷঢ়ଶ(શମͰऩࢧ0) :ਓؒ׆ಈͷӨڹʹΑͬͯมԽͨ͠ྔ IPCC AR4(2007) ਆށւ༸ؾ ଜՂরࢯͷεϥΠυΑΓ όΠΦϚεͷૉɾւਫͱͷ॥
ೋࢎԽૉͷ༹ղ CO2ͷਫͷ༹ղ ೋࢎԽૉԹଆͰ ༹ղ͕ٸܹʹ্ঢ͢Δ http://yingriguan.com/work/co2-molecules/
ೋࢎԽૉೱͱ২ͷ C3২ɺ200ppmҎԼͰ ͕େ્͖͘͞ΕΔ C3 ২ Ҵɺখഴɺͦͷଞଟ͘ͷओཁ࡞ C4 ২ ατΩϏɺͱ͏Ζ͜͠ɺ͋Θɺ ΩϏɺώΤɺϚπόϘλϯɺεεΩ
ͳͲ
CO2 ྔͱؾީͷมಈͷओͳཁҼ ւਫྔ ւਫԹ όΠΦϚεͱͯ͠ͷૉ ؾԹ ւதCO2 େؾCO2 ණচྔ ଠཅ͔Βͷ
ਖ਼ͷӨڹ ෛͷӨڹ ͍ͭ͘ͷϑΟʔυόοΫϧʔϓ ͷ૬ޓ࡞༻Ͱมಈํ͕ܾ·Δ ϛϥϯίϏονޮՌ ̎ສ͘Β͍ͷपظʁ
ؾԹԼ߱࣌ͷ֤߲ͷมಈ ւਫྔ ւਫԹ όΠΦϚεͱͯ͠ͷૉ ؾԹ ւதCO2 େؾCO2 ණচྔ ଠཅ͔Βͷ ਖ਼ͷӨڹ
ෛͷӨڹ Լ߱ Լ߱ Լ߱ Լ߱ཁҼ Լ߱ ্ঢ ্ঢ ্ঢཁҼ Լ߱ ʢԼ߱ཁҼʣ
͏Ұͭͷɹ ؾީมԽసͷཁҼ ௨ৗɺԹ͕Լ͕ΔͱେؾCO2ೱ͕Լ͕Δ ʢલϖʔδ্ଆͷϧʔϓ͕ӽʣ େؾCO2ೱ͕Լ͕Γ͗͢ΔͱC3২ͷ͕ ્͞ΕɺόΠΦϚεͷݮগͱେؾCO2ೱͷ ্ঢ͕ى͖ΔʢԼଆͷϧʔϓͷޮՌ͕ڧ͘ͳΔʣ ͱ͍͏γφϦΦ͕ߟ͑ΒΕΔ CO2ݮগ $્ྛͷݮগ$0૿Ճ
·ͱΊ աڈ̍̌̌ສఔͷؒɺ̍̌ສपظͷؾީมಈ͕ى͖͍ͯΔ ̍̌ສपظͷมಈϛϥϯίϏονޮՌ͚ͩͰઆ໌Ͱ͖ͳ͍ ̍̌ສपظͷมಈʮϊίΪϦܗʯʹݟ͑Δ ϊίΪϦܗɺສͷ্ঢɾԼ߱ͷਖ਼ͷϑΟʔυόοΫͷظ ؒͱมಈํͷసͷΈ߹ΘͤͰͰ͖Δ ϛϥϯίϏονޮՌʹΑΔཚ͕ؾީมಈͷసͷҾ͖ۚʹͳͬ ͍ͯΔΑ͏ͩ େؾ$0ೱͷԼͱ$২ͷ્సʹ͍ؔͯ͠ΔՄ ೳੑ͕͋Δ
ʮ·ͱΊʯͷ͋ͱͰ͕͢ɺ $0ؔ࿈ͷΛগ͚ͩ͠ଓ͚·͢
ऄ(1) ݱࡏɺԽੴ೩ྉͷ༻ͰೋࢎԽૉೱ্͕͕͍ͬͯΔ ʮCO2ೱͷ૿Ճѱ͍͜ͱʯͱߟ͑ΒΕ͍ͯΔ͕ ࣮͜ΕʹΑΓɺ৯ྉͷੜ࢈ྔ͕૿Ճ͍ͯ͠Δͱߟ͑ΒΕΔ ·ͨɺפྫྷԽʹ͔͍ͬͯΔظతͳαΠΫϧΛ્ࢭ͍ͯ͠Δ ͱ͍͏໘͋Δ CO2ೱ͕Լ͕Γ͗͢ΔͱפྫྷԽ৯ྐةػ͕ى͖Δ CO2ೱͷ૿Ճ͕ߦ͖ա͗Δͱɺٯʹ২ͷ્͕͞ΕΔ ೋࢎԽૉೱͱ২ͷ
ऄ(2) CO2ೱͷ্ঢͰۃҬͷණচ༹͕͚Δͱւ໘্ঢͳͲ͕ى͖Δ https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/snowball-earth-2332-2519-1000153.php?aid=78156 Snowball Earth Banik 2016
ୈ࢛ل(2.588Maʙ)ͷେྔઈ໓ σΠϊςϦϜ ϝΨςϦϜ (ΦΦφϚέϞϊʣ ΤϥεϞςϦϜ ୈ࢛لʹʮϝΨϑΝφʯͱݺΕΔڊେܕ ͷಈ૬͕ଟ͘ઈ໓͍ͯ͠Δ ͷؒͳͲͷᄡೕྨʹݶΒͣɺ༗ାྨɾᗡྨɾ ௗྨେܕͷͷ͕ઈ໓͍ͯ͠Δ CO2ೱ͕ݮগͨ࣌͠ɺC3২͕ҭͨͳ͘ͳͬͯ
৯ྐෆ͕ى͜Γ ઈ໓ͨ͠ͷ͔ Εͳ͍ ϝΨϥχΞ
Խੴ೩ྉͷCO2 ͕࣍ͷණظΛΒͤΔ͔ Archer and Ganopolski, 2005 http://odlt.org/dcd/docs /archer.2005.trigger.pdf
ҎԼ༧උεϥΠυ
ݦੜͷԹͱೋࢎԽૉೱͷมԽ
All life on earth https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/5/29/17386112/all-life-on-earth-chart-weight-plants-animals-pnas http://www.pnas.org/content/115/25/6506 The biomass distribution on
Earth ʰถࠃՊֶΞΧσϛʔلཁʱ Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA
ݦੜͷւਫ໘ਫ४ͷมಈ