Coming To Terms

Peter Twieg Zidisha slides placeholder.

Transcript

1. Peter Twieg Insight Data Science Fellow Coming to Terms Recommending optimal loan installments on crowdfunded projects
2. Key Performance Indicators
3. Funding Was the loan funded? Key Performance Indicators
4. Repayment Was the loan fully repaid? Key Performance Indicators Funding Was the loan funded?
5. Ontime Payment Were 75% of installments paid on time? Key Performance Indicators Funding Was the loan funded? Repayment Was the loan fully repaid?
6. Ontime Payment Were 75% of installments paid on time? Installment Stability Were 75% of the installments equal to the expected initial one? Key Performance Indicators Funding Was the loan funded? Repayment Was the loan fully repaid?
7. Ontime Payment Were 75% of installments paid on time? Installment Stability Were 75% of the installments equal to the expected initial one? Scoring Function Value = .1*Funded + .2*Stable + .1*Repaid + .6*Ontime Key Performance Indicators Repayment Was the loan fully repaid? Funding Was the loan funded?
8. Analysis Workflow
9. Analysis Workflow
10. Analysis Workflow
11. Analysis Workflow Random Forests
12. Analysis Workflow Random Forests
15. Score function: V = .1*Funded + .2*Stable + .1*Repaid + .6*Ontime
16. 8% average expected value increase across all loans.
17. .1*Funded + .2*Stable + .1*Repaid + .6*Ontime 8% Overall Improvement .2*Funded + .5*Stable + .2*Repaid + .1*Ontime 10% Overall Improvement .1*Funded + .2*Stable + .1*Repaid + .6*Ontime 8% Overall Improvement .2*Funded + .5*Stable + .2*Repaid + .1*Ontime 10% Overall Improvement
18. - Loan terms substantially impact all of our KPIs except funding likelihood.
19. - Loan terms substantially impact all of our KPIs except funding likelihood. - Optimal loan terms can increase expected value by substantial amounts depending on the objective function used.
20. - Loan terms substantially impact all of our KPIs except funding likelihood. - Optimal loan terms can increase expected value by substantial amounts depending on the objective function used. - Need to be careful about causal inference. Many longer-term loans might be risky and this could bias predictions.
21. - Loan terms substantially impact all of our KPIs except funding likelihood. - Optimal loan terms can increase expected utility by substantial amounts depending on the objective function used. - Need to be careful about causal inference. Many longer-term loans might be risky and this could bias predictions. - Zidisha will use a python module built on this analysis to integrate these recommendations into their production code.
22. Peter Twieg