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A Critical Review of March's (1991) Organizational Learning Simulation

A Critical Review of March's (1991) Organizational Learning Simulation

マーチの組織学習モデルの紹介と批判的検討(2016年6月)
・「探索(Exploration)」と「深化(Exploitation)」
・組織とメンバーの相互学習シミュレーション

Yasuo Sasaki

April 10, 2018
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  1. A Critical Review of March’s (1991) Organizational Learning Simulation ࠤʑ໦ɹ߁࿕

    ๺཮ઌ୺Պֶٕज़େֶӃେֶɹ஌ࣝՊֶݚڀՊ 2016 ೥ 6 ݄ 1 / 23
  2. ຊ೔঺հ͢Δ࿦จ J. G. March. Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning.

    Organization Science, 2(1):71–87, 1991. ஶऀʹ͍ͭͯɿઐ໳͸૊৫࿦Λ͸͡Ίɺ੓ֶ࣏ɺ৺ཧֶɺࣾ ձֶɺߦಈՊֶͳͲɻαΠϞϯͱͷڞஶʮΦʔΨχθʔγϣ ϯζʯ ʢ1958ʣ͸ݱ୅૊৫࿦ͷݪయͱ͍ΘΕΔɻελϯ ϑΥʔυେ໊༪ڭतɻ ࿦จͷ಺༰ɿ ʮ୳ࡧʯ ʮਂԽʯͷ֓೦Λఏࣔʢ࠶੔ཧʣ ͠ɺ༗ ޮͳ૊৫ֶशͷ͋ΓํΛγϛϡϨʔγϣϯͰ෼ੳ ૊৫࿦ͷΈͳΒͣݱ୅ͷܦӦֶݚڀʹ͓͍ͯඇৗʹॏཁࢹ͞ ΕΔ࿦จɻඃҾ༻݅਺ 16,000 Ҏ্ʢGoogle Scholar, 2016/6 ݱࡏʣ 3 / 23
  3. ૬ޓֶशϞσϧͷఆࣜԽ March ͸Ϟσϧͷઆ໌ʹ΄ͱΜͲ਺ࣜΛ࢖͍ͬͯͳ͍ͨΊɺಡΈ ʹ͘͘ɺᐆດͳهड़΋ଟ͍͕ɺ·ͣ͸࿦จͷهड़Λཁ໿͢ΔܗͰ ϞσϧΛݟͯΈΑ͏ɻ ʢᐆດͳ఺͸ٙ໰ͱ͓͖ͯ͠ɺޙͰৼΓ ฦΔʣ ʦݱ࣮ʧ ૊৫֎෦ͷݱ࣮Λ m

    ࣍ݩϕΫτϧͰදݱ͢Δɻ֤੒෼͸ 1 ͔ −1 ͷ஋ΛͱΔɻ (1, −1, 1, ..., 1) ॳظ஋͸ɺ֤੒෼ʹ 1 ͔ −1 ΛϥϯμϜʹ༩͑Δɻ ݱ࣮͸γϛϡϨʔγϣϯظؒΛ௨ͯ͡ෆมͱ͢Δɻ ʢ࿦จͰ ͸ɺݱ࣮͕มԽ͢Δέʔε΋෼ੳʣ 6 / 23
  4. ૬ޓֶशϞσϧͷఆࣜԽ ʦ૊৫͓Αͼ૊৫ϝϯόʔͷ৴೦ʧ ૊৫ʹ͸ n ਓͷϝϯόʔ͕͓Γɺ֤ࣗɺݱ࣮ʹؔ͢Δ৴೦Λ ͍࣋ͬͯΔɻ͜Ε͸ɺm ࣍ݩϕΫτϧͰදݱ͞Εɺ֤੒෼͸ 1, 0, −1

    ͷ͍ͣΕ͔ͷ஋ΛऔΔɻ ಉ༷ʹɺ૊৫΋ݱ࣮ʹؔ͢Δ৴೦Λ͍࣋ͬͯΔɻ͜ΕΛ૊৫ ίʔυͱݺͿɻ ʢखଓ͖ɾϧʔνϯɺنൣͳͲʣ (1, 0, −1, ..., 1) ϝϯόʔͷ৴೦ͷॳظ஋͸ɺ֤੒෼ʹ 1 ͔ 0 ͔ −1 Λϥϯμ Ϝʹ༩͑ΔɻҰํɺ૊৫ίʔυͷॳظ஋͸શͯ 0 ͱ͢Δɻ ৴೦ٴͼ૊৫ίʔυ͸ɺֶशͷ݁ՌɺมԽ͠ಘΔɻ 7 / 23
  5. ૬ޓֶशϞσϧͷఆࣜԽ ʦ૊৫ϝϯόʔͷֶशʧ ૊৫ϝϯόʔ͸ɺຖظɺ૊৫ίʔυʹجֶ͖ͮशʢʹ৴೦ߋ ৽ʣ͠ಘΔɻ ʢ૊৫΁ͷࣾձԽɺ૊৫ʹΑΔڭҭͷ݁Ռʣ ૊৫ίʔυͷ 0 Ͱͳ͍֤੒෼ʹ͍ͭͯɺ͋Δϝϯόʔͷ৴೦ ͕૊৫ίʔυͱҟͳΔ৔߹ɺ֬཰ p1ʢ֤੒෼ͰಠཱʣͰ૊৫

    ίʔυͱಉ͡஋ʹมԽ͢Δɻ ͦͷଞͷ৔߹ɺ৴೦͸มԽ͠ͳ͍ɻ p1 ͸ࣾձԽ཰ͱݺ͹Εɺશϝϯόʔʹڞ௨ʢ࿦จͰ͸ɺڞ௨ Ͱͳ͍έʔε΋෼ੳʣ ɻࣾձԽͷޮ཰ੑɺϝϯόʔͷֶश଎ ౓Λදݱɻ 8 / 23
  6. ૬ޓֶशϞσϧͷఆࣜԽ ʦ૊৫ίʔυͷߋ৽ʧ ૊৫ίʔυ͸ɺຖظɺ༏लͳϝϯόʔͷ৴೦ͷӨڹΛड͚ͯ վగ͞ΕಘΔɻٙ໰ 1 ʲఆٛʳݱ࣮ͱҰக͢Δ੒෼ͷ਺͕૊৫ίʔυΑΓ΋ଟ͍৴ ೦Λ࣋ͭϝϯόʔͷू߹Λ༏लάϧʔϓͱݺͿɻ ֤੒෼ʹ͍ͭͯɺ૊৫ίʔυ͕༏लάϧʔϓͷଟ਺ҙݟͱಉ ͡ͳΒɺมԽ͠ͳ͍ɻ ֤੒෼ʹ͍ͭͯɺ૊৫ίʔυ͕༏लάϧʔϓͷଟ਺ҙݟͱҟ

    ͳΔ৔߹ɺ֬཰ 1 − (1 − p2 )k Ͱଟ਺ҙݟͱಉ͡஋ʹมԽ͢Δɻ ͨͩ͠ɺk(> 0) ͸ɺ༏लάϧʔϓͷதͰɺ ʢ౰֘੒෼ʹؔ͠ ͯʣ৴೦͕૊৫ίʔυͱҟͳΔϝϯόʔͷ਺͔Βɺಉ͡ϝϯ όʔͷ਺ΛҾ͍ͨ஋ʢͭ·Γɺ༏लάϧʔϓ಺Ͱͷଟ਺ҙݟͷ ʮ߹ҙʯͷఔ౓Λද͢ʣ ɻ ʢ֤੒෼ͷมߋ͸ɺଞ੒෼ͱ͸ಠཱʣ p2 ͸ɺ૊৫ʹΑΔֶशͷޮ཰ੑɺ଎౓Λදݱɻ 9 / 23
  7. ݁Ռ ໋୊ʢMarch, 1991ʣ ࣾձԽ͕஗͍ʢp1 ͕খ͍͞ʣํ͕ɺΑΓߴ͍ۉߧ஌ࣝϨϕϧ ʹ౸ୡ͢Δɻ͜ͷ܏޲͸ɺಛʹ૊৫ͷֶश͕଎͍ʢp2 ͕େ͖ ͍ʣ৔߹ʹݦஶͰ͋Δɻ ஌ࣝϨϕϧ͕࠷େԽ͞ΕΔͷ͸ɺࣾձԽ͕஗͘ɺ૊৫ͷֶश ͕଎͍ͱ͖ɻ

    ʮ଎ֶ͍श͕ৗʹ๬·͍͠Θ͚Ͱ͸ͳ͍ʢ஗ֶ͍श͸ɺ୳ࡧ ͷՄೳੑΛ૿େͤ͞Δଆ໘΋͋Δʣ ʯͱ͍͏طଘݚڀΛ௥ೝɻ ຊ෼ੳͰ͸ɺ૊৫͸ɺ૊৫ίʔυ͔Βҳ୤ͨ͠ʢ૊৫ΑΓ΋ ஌ࣝϨϕϧͷߴ͍ʣϝϯόʔ͔ΒͷΈֶश͢Δɻ͕ͨͬ͠ ͯɺϝϯόʔ͕૊৫ίʔυΛ଎ֶ͘शͯ͠͠·͏ͱɺ૊৫͸ ֶशͷػձΛࣦͬͯ͠·͏ɻϝϯόʔͷࣾձԽ͕஗͍͜ͱ ͕ɺ૊৫ͷଟ༷ੑΛ௕͘ҡ࣋͠ɺ૊৫ʹͱͬͯ୳ࡧͷػձΛ ΋ͨΒ͢͜ͱʹͭͳ͕Δɻ 12 / 23
  8. ߴڮʢ1998ʣʹΑΔमਖ਼ͱ௥ࢼ ٙ໰ 1-1ɿ ʮଟ਺ҙݟʯͷఆٛ͸ʁ ˠʮ0 Λআ͍ͨա൒਺ҙݟʯ ʢ0 ΛؚΊͨଟ਺ҙݟͱ͢Δͱɺ ඇۉߧϩοΫΠϯ͠΍͍͢ʣ ٙ໰

    1-2ɿ ʢk ͷఆٛʣ ʮ૊৫ίʔυͱҟͳΔʯͰ͸ͳ͘ʮଟ਺ ҙݟͱಉ͡ʯͰ͸ʁ ˠ k Λɺ ʢ0 Λআ͍ͯʣଟ਺೿ͷ਺͔Βগ਺೿ͷ਺Λࠩ͠Ҿ͍ ͨ஋ͱͯ͠ఆٛɻ ٙ໰ 1-3ɿ༏लάϧʔϓ͕ۭɺ·ͨ͸ଟ਺ҙݟ͕ଘࡏ͠ͳ͍ ৔߹͸ʁ ˠ૊৫ίʔυ͸มԽ͠ͳ͍ɻ m = 6, n = 6 ͱͯ͠ɺࢼߦճ਺ 100 ճͰγϛϡϨʔγϣϯ 16 / 23
  9. ߴڮʢ1998ʣʹΑΔमਖ਼ͱ௥ࢼ ૊৫ίʔυͷߋ৽֬཰ΛઌͷΑ͏ʹఆٛ͢Δͱɺ࿦จʹࣔ͞ ΕΔ݁Ռ͸ಘΒΕͳ͍ɻ1 − (1 − p2)k ͱ͢Δͱɺ࿦จͱࣅͨ ܏޲Λࣔ݁͢Ռ͕ಘΒΕͨ*ɻ ͔͠͠ɺ͜ͷܭࢉ݁Ռʹ͸ɺඇۉߧϩοΫΠϯ͕ଟؚ͘·Ε

    ͍ͯΔɻ ʢಛʹ p2 ͕খ͍͞৔߹ʣ ͦ͜Ͱɺۉߧʹ౸ୡͨ͠৔߹ͷΈ༗ޮͱ͠ɺ֤৚݅Ͱ 100 ճ ͷγϛϡϨʔγϣϯΛߦͬͨɻ *ͨͩ͠ɺ͜ͷΑ͏ʹఆٛ͢Δͱߋ৽֬཰͕ k ͷݮগؔ਺ʹͳΔ͜ͱʹ஫ҙɻԼ هαΠτͷղઆ΋ࢀরɻ http://bizsci.net/readings/comment/march1991comment.html 17 / 23
  10. ݁Ռ ໋୊ʢߴڮ, 1998ʣɹ˞੺ࣈ͸ March ͱٯ ࣾձԽ͕଎͍ʢp1 ͕େ͖͍ʣํ͕ɺΑΓߴ͍ۉߧ஌ࣝϨϕϧ ʹ౸ୡ͢Δɻ͜ͷ܏޲͸ɺಛʹ૊৫ͷֶश͕଎͍ʢp2 ͕େ͖ ͍ʣ৔߹ʹݦஶͰ͋Δɻ

    ࣾձԽ͕஗͍ͱ͖ʹ͸ɺ૊৫ͷֶश͸஗͍ํ͕ۉߧ஌ࣝϨϕ ϧ͸ߴ͍ɻ ૊৫ϧʔνϯͷ࣋ଓੑͷҙٛΛࣔ݁͢ՌͰ͋Γɺ ʮೳྗͷ᠘ʯ ͱ΋੔߹͢Δɻ ʢ୹ظతʹ੒ޭͨ͠ϧʔνϯΛऔΓೖΕΔͱ ௕ظతʹ͸๬·͘͠ͳ͍ʣ ʮ ʢMarch ͸ʣඇۉߧϩοΫΠϯΛۉߧͱޡೝͯ͠શؒ͘ҧͬ ͨ݁࿦Λಋ͖ग़͍ͯ͠Δͱ͍͏఺Ͱ͸΄΅͍ٙΑ͏͕ͳ͍ɻ ʯ ʢߴڮʣ 19 / 23
  11. ͱ͜Ζ͕... ࡾ෋ɾߴڮʢ2014ʣʹΑΔ௥ࢼ ʢઃఆʣ ٙ໰ 1-1ʙ1-3 ͷઃఆ͸ߴڮʢ1998ʣͱಉ͡ɻ ૊৫ίʔυͷߋ৽֬཰͸ 1 − (1

    − p2)kʢMarch ͱಉ͡ʣ m = 30, n = 50ʢMarch ͱಉ͡ʣ ʢ݁Ռʣ March ͱʢશ͘ಉ͡Ͱͳ͍͕ʣࣅͨ݁Ռ͕ಘΒΕͨɻ ͔͠͠ɺ ʢߴڮͱಉ͡ʣm = 6, n = 6 ͱ͢ΔͱɺMarch ͱ͸ ҟͳΔ܏޲Λࣔ݁͢Ռ͕ಘΒΕͨɻ ʮ ʢߴڮ 1998 Ͱ͸ʣϓϩάϥϜͷઃఆ͕ɺMarch (1991) ͷ௥ ࢼͱͯ͠͸ෆద੾Ͱ͋ͬͨՄೳੑ͕ߴ͍͜ͱ͸൱Ίͳ͍ʯ ʢࡾ෋ɾߴڮʣ 20 / 23
  12. ݁ہɺԿ͕ਖ਼͍͠ͷ͔ Մೳੑ 1ɿ ʮ΍ͬͺΓ March ͕ਖ਼͍͠ʯઆ March ͷఆࣜԽʹ͸ෆ໌ྎͳ఺͕࢒Δ΋ͷͷɺଥ౰ͳํ๏ͷ ΋ͱͰ March

    ͷ݁࿦͕ಘΒΕΔɻ Մೳੑ 2ɿ ʮߴڮʢ1998ʣ͕ਖ਼͍͠ʯઆ March ͷ෼ੳ͸ܽؕͩΒ͚ɻ Մೳੑ 3ɿ ʮࡾ෋ɾߴڮʢ2014ʣ͕ਖ਼͍͠ʯઆ ࿦จͰࣔͨ͠෼ੳέʔεʹؔͯ͠͸ɺMarch ͷओு͸ਖ਼ͦ͠ ͏ɻ͔͠͠ɺ൴͸ʮఆੑతͳ݁Ռ͸ɺm, n ʹґଘ͠ͳ͍ʯͱ ͍ͯ͠Δ͕ʢࠜڌ͸ه͞Ε͍ͯͳ͍ʣ ɺͦ͏Ͱ͸ͳ͍͔΋ʁ Մೳੑ 4ɿ ʮΈΜͳؒҧ͍ͬͯΔʯઆ ଞͷՄೳੑʁ ࢤଜʢ2005ʣʹΑΔ௥ࢼͰ͸ɺ ʮͦ΋ͦ΋஌ࣝϨϕϧ͸ p1, p2 ʹґଘ͠ͳ͍ʯͱ͍͏݁Ռ΋ɻ 21 / 23
  13. γϛϡϨʔγϣϯ࿦จʹ͋ΓಘΔܽ఺ ”In some articles the modeling and experimental structures are

    not presented in sufficient detail to provide understanding of what was actually done, making it impossible to evaluate the work and to develop any level of confidence in the conclusions. ... Ideally, problems of this nature would be addressed in the review process. But when an article with inadequate description or analysis is published, the reader must decide what, if any, weight should be given to its claims.” (Harrisson et al., 2007) ˠ March ࿦จ΋౰ͯ͸·ΔͷͰ͸ɾ ɾ ɾ ʁ 22 / 23
  14. ࢀߟจݙ J. R. Harrison, A. Lin, G. R. Carroll and

    K. M. Carley. Simulation modeling in organizational and management research. Academy of Management Review, 32(4):1229–1245, 2007. J. G. March. Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning. Organization Science, 2(1):71–87, 1991. ೖࢁষӫ. ϏδωεεΫʔϧͰ͸ֶ΂ͳ͍ੈք࠷ઌ୺ͷܦӦֶ, ೔ܦ BP ࣾ, 2015. ࢤଜ݈Ұ. Ϛʔνͷ૬ޓֶशϞσϧʹ͍ͭͯ. ླྀٿେֶܦࡁݚڀ, 70: 75-90, 2005. ߴڮ৳෉. ૊৫ϧʔνϯͱ૊৫಺Τίϩδʔ. ૊৫Պֶ, 32(2):54–77. 1998. ࡾ෋༔لɾߴڮ৳෉. ૬ޓֶशϞσϧͷຊ౰ͷ݁࿦. ੺໳Ϛωδϝϯτɾ ϨϏϡʔ, 13(9):353–370, 2014. 23 / 23