Plenary Session II: Dr. Mahamadou Tankari: Impact of Climate Change on African Economies and Opportunities for Agrifood System Transformation

Dr. Mahamadou Tankari, Deputy Director, Capacity and Deployment, AKADEMIYA2063

Transcript

1. Deputy Director, Capacity and Deployment AKADEMIYA2063 The Impact of Climate Change on African Economies and Opportunities for Agrifood System Transformation Dr. Mahamadou Tankari
2. #2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Outline 1) Introduction 2) Macroeconomic impacts of climate change 3) Agrifood system transformation and climate change 4) Opportunities for African food systems transformation under climate change 5) Conclusion 1
3. #2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Introduction • A slightly faster warming trend in Africa than the global average over 1991–2022 (WMO 2023) ❑The warming trend in Africa +0.3 °C per decade ❑Global warming trend one +0.2°C per decade • A change in precipitation patterns, a rise in sea level, and an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events • Economic damages due estimated at US$8.5 billion, and more than 110 million people affected in 2022 (WMO 2023) 2
4. #2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Introduction • Impacts may extend beyond agrifood systems • Climate change impacts African economies with one of the clearest impacts being the decline in crop yields • Disruption of food supply chains have negative implications for food and nutrition security, and livelihoods 3
5. #2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Macroeconomic impacts of climate change • Importance of agriculture and agricultural dependence on rainfall matter • Several climate change impact pathways: changes in productivity, employment, prices, and trade • Productivity changes can affect the entire economy 4
6. #2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Macroeconomic impacts of climate change Table 1: Share of Agriculture in GDP and Food Weight in five East Africa region countries 5
7. #2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Macroeconomic impacts of climate change Figure 1: GDP decreases associated with impacts of climate change 6
8. #2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Agrifood system transformation and climate change • Agrifood systems gradually develop and evolve amid the transformation of economies: ❖ Three stages: traditional, transitional, and modern (FAO 2021) • Impact of climate change depends on the characteristics of the agrifood systems • The contribution of the agrifood system to GDP and employment varies from one country to another: ❖ For instance, 48% and 77.2% in Ethiopia and 15.4% and 51.1% in Zambia (Diao et al. 2023a; Diao et al. 2023b) 7
9. #2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR • Deficiencies act as barriers that limit opportunities to develop businesses and access services Agrifood system transformation and climate change • Dependence on climatic, biological, physical, and chemical processes makes vulnerable to climate shocks • Existing structural deficiencies amplify the effects of climate shocks on agrifood systems: ❖ Inadequate roads, power, irrigation, processing, storage, and marketing infrastructure 8
10. #2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR • Climate change also has varied effects on actors within and between the different components of agrifood systems (FAO 2021): Agrifood system transformation and climate change ❖ Small-scale agricultural producers are more likely to be adversely affected than large-scale producers; ❖ Actors who are well connected to supply chains will overcome supply shortages and recover from disturbances more quickly than smallholders; ❖ poorest households will be more impacted by rising food prices with nonpoor households. 9
11. #2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Opportunities for African food systems transformation under climate change ✓ Modern technologies for climate change adaptation and mitigation ✓ Trade for supply and demand stabilization ✓ Digital solutions for weather information ✓ Social protection programs for workers in agrifood systems ✓ Adapted financial services for smallholders and agricultural and forest SMEs 10
12. #2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Conclusion • Factoring in climate change impact is crucial for sound policies in the context of the post-Malabo Agenda: ▪ Consider the macroeconomic effects of climate change, with an emphasis on agrifood systems ▪ Invest or repurpose the support to interventions for economic resilience and adaption to climate change • In Africa, climate change impacts are real • Extreme weather events are negatively impacting economies and displacing communities 11
13. THANK YOU