CIFOR) ‘The Economist’ article 30 March 2013 – The climate may be heating up less…but... the problem is not going away Bodman et al. 2013 – increased probability of exceeding 2oC by 2100, reduced probability of surpassing 6oC 2009 Copenhagen Accord
& Hutchinson Booth (1985) – Eucalyptus citriodora Hughes et al. (1996) BIOCLIM analysis of 819 eucs 41% have distributions <2oC range 25% have distributions <1oC range Booth et al. (1988) Niche analysis.. Realised niche and fundamental niche
carbon, enhance biodiversity and build environmental resistance under climate change $946 million over six years Phase 1 – $271 million, 313 projects, 18 m ha, P2 $50m ‘regionally appropriate’ ‘long-term sustainability under changing..conditions’ 100 years survival No freely accessible systems to assist selection under CC Example focus here on trees, as important for C seq. Biodiversity Fund
info on climatic variability & extremes • Results from overseas trials • Results from genomic studies • More sophisticated analyses of soil limitations • Increased water use efficiency as CO2 levels rise Improvements inside & outside ALA needed
now Just checking ALA spp descriptions/maps will be helpful If more detail – Use scatterplots and/or MaxEnt • Use species/provenances within their current distributions, but select those likely to be suited to anticipated future climatic changes at target site • Be cautious about plants likely to be unsuited to future • If narrow range, try to determine their adaptability • 60 NRM groups have requested more info on method • Further improvements could be made Conclusions
reviewed paper walk through the steps of using the tool and the potential pitfalls. To be honest - without the credibility your article gave the [ALA] portal - it would have taken me a lot longer to consider using it.” - Felicity Sturgiss – South East Landcare, CMA, NSW. “It’s really great practical adaptation guidance and very insightful. It will be very useful for our planned IUCN guidelines on climate change adaptation.” - Wendy Foden, IUCN, Cambridge. Thank You! Questions?