Trevor Booth - Using the Atlas of Living Australia to assist developing biodiverse plantings suitable for changing climatic conditions

Transcript

1. Using the ALA to help develop biodiverse plantings suitable for changing climatic conditions Trevor Booth CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences and CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES
2.  Climate change  Early bioclimatic work - eucalypts  Biodiversity Fund  Using the ALA to help species & provenance selection under climate change  Possible future improvements  Conclusions  More info – Two papers Outline
3. Increasing global temperatures  HADCRUT4 global temperature dataset (graph from CIFOR) ‘The Economist’ article 30 March 2013 – The climate may be heating up less…but... the problem is not going away  Bodman et al. 2013 – increased probability of exceeding 2oC by 2100, reduced probability of surpassing 6oC  2009 Copenhagen Accord
4. Many eucalypts have narrow climatic ranges BIOCLIM – Nix, Busby & Hutchinson Booth (1985) – Eucalyptus citriodora Hughes et al. (1996) BIOCLIM analysis of 819 eucs 41% have distributions <2oC range 25% have distributions <1oC range Booth et al. (1988) Niche analysis.. Realised niche and fundamental niche
5.  Aim: To revegetate, rehabilitate and restore landscapes to store carbon, enhance biodiversity and build environmental resistance under climate change  $946 million over six years  Phase 1 – $271 million, 313 projects, 18 m ha, P2 $50m  ‘regionally appropriate’  ‘long-term sustainability under changing..conditions’  100 years survival  No freely accessible systems to assist selection under CC  Example focus here on trees, as important for C seq. Biodiversity Fund
6. Greening Australia – Grassy woodland info http://www.grassywoodlands.org.au/SeedPlants/AccessingDatabase/SpeciesAvailable.aspx
7.  Example site just north of Albury, NSW, 36.01S, 146.95E  Develop list of species for consideration An example analysis using ALA
8. Explore your area – Enter lat, long
9.  36.01oS, 146.95oE, Use hover tool (or Export |Point tool) • Load data layers - Temperature – annual mean (Bio1) and Precipitation – mean (Bio12) • Reduce opacity to minimum • Move mouse pointer • 14.5oC • 730 mm Determine climatic conditions at target site
10. Determine likely changes at target site www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au (n.b. CC surfaces are being added to ALA)
11. Check species descriptions/maps in ALA
12. • Add to map | Species e.g. Silver wattle (Acacia dealbata) • For most species for most biodiverse plantings this may be enough Use ALA spatial portal to check distributions
13. Tools | Scatterplot, select Bio1 (MAT) & Bio12 (mean precip) Compare with 14.5oC and 730 mm at target site Check estimated climatic conditions
14. Compare with 14.5oC and 730 mm at target site White cypress within natural distrib, but can handle hotter/warmer Consider including species/provs more suited to future conditions at target site
15. Woolly Ragwort (Senecio garlandii) – a ‘vulnerable’ species Tools | Predict , Add Layers, use ‘Best 5 indpt. terrestrial env. layers’ Use MaxEnt for detailed climatic analyses
16. Limited distrib. eucs e.g. E. pterocarpa Current 2030 2070 Booth and Jovanovic (unpublished) – climatic mapping program CC DARLAM
17. WA sites: 17.0-17.8oC, 286-315 mm Myall Park (Qld) 20.3oC 565 mm, Galore (NSW) 15.5oC 525 mm Eucalyptus pterocarpa – natural & planted
18. • Addition of climate change scenarios (already underway) • More info on climatic variability & extremes • Results from overseas trials • Results from genomic studies • More sophisticated analyses of soil limitations • Increased water use efficiency as CO2 levels rise Improvements inside & outside ALA needed
19.  Using ALA - Quick, simple & cheap – available now  Just checking ALA spp descriptions/maps will be helpful  If more detail – Use scatterplots and/or MaxEnt • Use species/provenances within their current distributions, but select those likely to be suited to anticipated future climatic changes at target site • Be cautious about plants likely to be unsuited to future • If narrow range, try to determine their adaptability • 60 NRM groups have requested more info on method • Further improvements could be made Conclusions
20. Ecological Management & Restoration papers, 13(3), Sept 2012, 267-281
21. Unsolicited testimonials! “It was very useful to have a peer reviewed paper walk through the steps of using the tool and the potential pitfalls. To be honest - without the credibility your article gave the [ALA] portal - it would have taken me a lot longer to consider using it.” - Felicity Sturgiss – South East Landcare, CMA, NSW. “It’s really great practical adaptation guidance and very insightful. It will be very useful for our planned IUCN guidelines on climate change adaptation.” - Wendy Foden, IUCN, Cambridge. Thank You! Questions?