18-10-25 M4 No17

Baf5df007c8e457d941726413db8e1eb?s=47 Cantillon Consulting
October 24, 2018

18-10-25 M4 No17

As markets teeter off their highs, there will be much self-gratification and not a few sighs of relief among the many who have tried so desperately, these past months, to get some expression of bearishness or some voicing of doubt into the public domain, as much for the purposes of later self-promotion as out of any genuine conviction that investment strategies should have been re-ordered well ahead of the slide.

But, despite their ostensible success in croaking ill-omen, what we are facing does not look like it has overly much in common with 2008, as tends to be these Ravens’ principal analogy, nor with the other hot favourite of 1987. If this apparent shift in 'sentimentals' and market price-action does finally mark the turn of the tide in our great bull market, it will, as ever, follow its own particular course in response to its own unique set of triggers.

As for those triggers, it is hard to resist the conclusion that, this time around, China's largely self-inflicted woes will constitute the so-called 'Grey Rhino' - the danger of which we were all very well aware, but which we tended overly to discount.

Read on for an in-depth look at these topics, followed by a chart pack suggesting what it all might mean for markets.


Cantillon Consulting

October 24, 2018