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Tectonic Shifts, Tweets, & Tactical Data Analysis

Dd9d954997353b37b4c2684f478192d3?s=47 Elastic Co
March 18, 2015
3.1k

Tectonic Shifts, Tweets, & Tactical Data Analysis

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operates a real-time system that detects earthquakes using only tweets. The main benefit of the tweet-based detections is speed, with most detections occurring between 20 and 120 seconds after the origin time. This timeframe is significantly faster than seismically-derived detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. This talk will present a technical overview of the Elasticsearch and Kibana-based system and describe the potential for rapid characterization of earthquake damage via the added real-time search and visualization tools combined with analysis of the 32 million ‘earthquake’ tweets the system has so far amassed.

Presented by Michelle Guy, US Geological Survey

Dd9d954997353b37b4c2684f478192d3?s=128

Elastic Co

March 18, 2015
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Transcript

  1. Tectonic Shifts, Tweets, & Tactical Analysis Presenter: Michelle Guy –

    Computer Scientist Co-author: Paul Earle - Geophysicist
  2. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 •  What we do Global earthquake

    monitoring and analysis •  Our tweet based earthquake detection system System performance and earthquake characterization •  Taking it to the next level Elasticsearch & Kibana for data analysis •  Wrap it up More fun to come Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. { 2 } Our Story
  3. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 { 3 } National Earthquake Information

    Center
  4. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 Instrument Based Earthquake Monitoring •  Energy

    Propagation •  Seismic Station Distribution •  Human Review •  Accuracy { 4 }
  5. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 http://www.gly.fsu.edu/~salters/GLY1000/Chapter4/Slide20.jpg { 5 } •  It

     takes  (me  for  seismic   energy  to  travel   through  the  Earth   •  There  is  a  (me  delay   between  kinds  of   seismic  waves   Energy Propagation
  6. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 Frank Wattenberg, Department of Mathematics, Montana

    State University { 6 }
  7. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 { 7 } An Earthquake Information

    Timeline Global earthquakes 0sec 1min 5-10min 10-20min 1hr What can be done here?
  8. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 M5.8 Offshore Java, Indonesia { 8

    } Tweets  /  minute  
  9. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 Tweet Based Earthquake Detection System 9

      outputs detect, locate SQL  DB   geocode collect archive time-series Text messages e-mails Interactive maps Tweets/min select preferred tweets earthquake   gempa   temblor   terremoto   deprem   lindol   erdbeben   zelzele   Σεισμός    هزرل‌نیمز      
  10. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 Data Filtering Remove Tweets Containing: http,

    numbers, more than 7 words, @, predict, drill, song 10   News  Story   Earthquake  
  11. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 Generating Time-series C(t) = STA/(mLTA+b) 11

     
  12. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 System Performance { 12 Statistics derived

    from dataset spanning July 2013 – March 2014 Detec%on   Frequency   ~  3  tweet  events  /  day   Detec%on   Delay   90%  <  2  min   Loca%on   Accuracy   90%  within  200km   Magnitude   Distribu%on   M1.4  through  M8.2  
  13. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 System Sensitivity & Accuracy •  Detector

    Tunable •  9.5% False Triggers •  Currently, low cost for false detections 13  
  14. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 Global Coverage 14   Where  are

     they?   •  Seismically active areas •  Places where people tweet
  15. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 15   Example Alert M5.1 76

    km deep ~150 km N of Anchorage, AK Tweet  event  detec%on   NOT  AN  OFFICIAL  USGS  ALERT   NOT  SEISMICALLY  VERIFIED     Detec%on  Time:   2014/04/16  20:25:48     Possibly  felt  in:   Anchorage,  Alaska,  United  States  (3/7)   61.218,  -­‐149.858     City:  Anchorage   Level2:  Anchorage  Borough   Level1:  Alaska   Country:  United  States   2014/04/16  20:25:48   UL:  No  loca(on  string   TXT:  EARTHQUAKE     2014/04/16  20:25:47   UL:  No  loca(on  string   TXT:  Holy  f*ing  s**t  that  was  an  earthquake     2014/04/16  20:25:44   UL:  Alaska.   TXT:  Oh  hi,  minor  earthquake.     2014/04/16  20:25:42   UL:  Anchorage   TXT:  Earthquake?     2014/04/16  20:25:42   UL:  None   TXT:  Earth  quake  ?     2014/04/16  20:25:41   UL:  Anchorage,  Alaska   TXT:  Earthquake!     MMI  IV  
  16. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 How are these detections and alerts

    used? 16   •  Frequently NEIC’s first indication of a widely felt event •  Detection of small felt events in sparsely instrumented places in the world •  Provides earthquake detections from an independent source
  17. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 Taking it to the next level

    •  Describing shaking intensity and effects •  How significant is an earthquake to the people that experienced it? •  How many people experienced the shaking? •  Was there damage? 17   Earthquake Characterization
  18. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 18   Follow on alerts @5min

    (0,523,695) Viña del Mar, Valparaiso, Chile: high, increasing High  interest:  609  tweets/min  average  in  first  5  minutes.   Increasing  interest  with  %me:  +33%  change  in  first  5  minutes.   Ini%al  repor%ng  loca%on:  Viña  del  Mar,  Valparaiso,  Chile     Tweet  Volume  details   0  tweets/min  pre  trigger  "noise”                                                                   523  tweets/min  in  first  2.5  minutes                                               695  tweets/min  between  2.5  and  5  minutes     Popula%on  Informa%on   From  ini(al  loca(on  es(mate:  Viña  del  Mar,  Valparaiso,  Chile  (-­‐33.02394,  -­‐71.55219)   Popula(on:   20km:  635,000   50km:  1,173,000   100km:  5,504,000     From  updated  loca(on  es(mate:  (-­‐33.200874837098496,  -­‐71.27149415535366)   Popula(on:   20km:  143,000   50km:  2,439,000   100km:  8,687,000  
  19. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 M5.2,  Depth  95  km    2014-­‐04-­‐04

     9:52   19   Map  from  Centro  Sismologico  Nacional,  Chile   Max  MMI  IV     00:00 00:30 01:00 01:30 02:00 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Time [Hours:Minutes] Count terremoto   temblor  
  20. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 00:00 00:30 01:00 01:30 0 50

    100 150 200 Time [Hours:Minutes] Count M8.2,  Depth  20  km    2014-­‐04-­‐01  23:46   20   terremoto   temblor   Map  from  Centro  Sismologico  Nacional,  Chile   Max  MMI  VII    
  21. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 Tweet Based Earthquake Detection System 21

      outputs detect, locate SQL  DB   geocode collect archive time-series Kibana Text messages e-mails Interactive maps Tweets/min select preferred tweets Elasticsearch
  22. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 22  

  23. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 23   Example Alert M6.0 6

    km deep ~9 km SSW of Napa, CA Tweet  event  detec%on   NOT  AN  OFFICIAL  USGS  ALERT   NOT  SEISMICALLY  VERIFIED     Detec%on  Time:   2014/08/24  10:21:13     Possibly  felt  in:   Alameda County, CA, U.S. (3/13) 37.680, -121.906 City: Level2: Alameda County Level1: California Country: United States 2014/08/24  10:21:13   UL:  Bay  Area,  Ca.   GEO:  37.879,  -­‐122.371  CA,  United  States   TXT:  EARTHQUAKE!     2014/08/24  10:21:09   UL:  Oakland   GEO:  37.805,  -­‐122.273  Oakland,  Alameda  County,  CA,   United  States   TXT:  EARTHQUAKE  F**     2014/08/24  10:21:06   UL:  esports,  california   GEO:  37.272,  -­‐119.270  CA,  United  States   TXT:  MOTHERF**ING  EARTHQUAKE     2014/08/24  10:21:04   UL:  OAKLAND  STRAIGHT  EDGE   GEO:  37.792,  -­‐122.228  Oakland,  Alameda  County,  CA,   United  States   TXT:  EARTHQUAKE    
  24. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 24   M6.0 Depth 6km Napa,

    CA August 24, 2014 10:20:44 UTC MMI  VIII  
  25. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 25   M6.0 Depth 6km Napa,

    CA MMI  VIII  
  26. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 M 6.0 Napa, CA - Photos

    of Damage 26  
  27. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 More Fun To Come •  Migration

    to Kibana 4 •  Faster access to links in data •  Need better map •  Sharing of Kibana visualization components in alerts to mobile devices •  We need to improve integration between visualization components •  Adding in seismically confirmed data •  New ideas from this conference, let’s talk!!! 27  
  28. { } Thank you for your interest and time. With

    special thanks to my team members: P. Earle, J. Allen, S. Horvath, J. Turner Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Michelle Guy mguy@usgs.gov
  29. { }

  30. { } CC-BY-ND 4.0 This work is licensed under the

    Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/ or send a letter to: Creative Commons PO Box 1866 Mountain View, CA 94042 USA { 30