left; the real skill comes in winning on the right.” – Participant • “One could win on the right key by betting on it very often but... this would be no more a test of skill than deer-hunting with a machine gun” – Jacqueline Goodnow Goodnow (1955)
old, single, outspoken and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations."
used in a 10 roll game: • (a) you could predict green for all 10 throws, or • (b) you could predict green for 7 throws and red for 3 throws. • Which strategy do you think will win more money?”
$1.10. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?” • “If it takes 5 machines 5 minutes to make 5 widgets, how long would it take 100 machines to make 100 widgets?” • “In a lake, there is a patch of lily pads. Every day, the patch doubles in size. If it takes 48 days for the patch to cover the entire lake, how long would it take for the patch to cover half of the lake?” Fredrick, 2005
no system which would make it possible to get all correct answers. • Financial incentives (£40), regular feedback, and extensive training (1800 trials) each decreased probability matching.