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30年先の未来に向けて / 30 Years Ahead

30年先の未来に向けて / 30 Years Ahead

2019年4月8日(月)、サステナビリティ日本フォーラム主催 TCFDコンパス研究会(第1回) での講演にて使用したスライドです。

Kenji Saito

April 08, 2019
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  1. ԫۚظ͸աڈͰ͸ͳ͘ະདྷʹ͋Δɻ
    30೥ઌͷະདྷʹ޲͚ͯ
    ܚጯٛक़େֶ SFC ݚڀॴ ্੮ॴһɾ؀ڥ৘ใֶ෦ ߨࢣ (ඇৗۈ)
    ੪౻ ݡ࣐
    [email protected]
    30 ೥ઌͷະདྷʹ޲͚ͯ — 2019-04-08 – p.1/17

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  2. ؆୯ͳࣗݾ঺հ
    ੪౻ ݡ࣐ (͍͞ͱ͏ ͚Μ͡)
    ܚጯٛक़େֶ SFC ݚڀॴ ্੮ॴһɾ؀ڥ৘ใֶ෦ ߨࢣ (ඇৗۈ)
    גࣜձࣾϒϩοΫνΣʔϯϋϒ CSO (Chief Science Officer)
    Ұൠࣾஂ๏ਓϏϤϯυϒϩοΫνΣʔϯ ୅දཧࣄ
    Ұൠࣾஂ๏ਓΞΧσϛʔΩϟϯϓ ୅දཧࣄ
    ܦྺ
    1993 ೥ɺίʔωϧେֶΑΓ޻ֶम࢜߸औಘ (ίϯϐϡʔλαΠΤϯε)
    2006 ೥ɺܚጯٛक़େֶΑΓσδλϧ௨՟ͷݚڀͰത࢜߸औಘ (੓ࡦɾϝσΟΞ)
    ܚጯٛक़େֶ େֶӃ ੓ࡦɾϝσΟΞݚڀՊ΍ SFC ݚڀॴʹͯ 18 ೥Ҏ্ʹΘͨΓ
    P2P (Peer-to-Peer) ͓Αͼσδλϧ௨՟౳ͷݚڀʹैࣄ
    2011 ೥ՆΑΓ෱ౡͷ͜Ͳ΋ͨͪͷͨΊͷʮΞΧσϛʔΩϟϯϓʯΛ஥ؒΒͱ։࠵
    ࡢՆ͸ SFC ʹͯ ΞΧσϛʔΩϟϯϓ 2018 ՆʮΦοέʔάʔάϧɺ॓୊΍ͬͱ͍ͯʂʯΛ࣮ࢪ
    ࡢౙ͸ ΞΧσϛʔΩϟϯϓ 2019 ౙʮԵঁͷͨΊͷΦʔτϝʔγϣϯ ∼ ΧϫΠΠ͸ࣗಈԽͰ͖ΔʂʯΛ࣮ࢪ
    → ࢲͷ಄ͷதͰ͸ͭͳ͕͍ͬͯ·͢ (͜Ε͔ΒͷࣾձͷσβΠϯ͸͜Ͳ΋ͨͪͱҰॹʹ)
    30 ೥ઌͷະདྷʹ޲͚ͯ — 2019-04-08 – p.2/17

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  3. ΞΧσϛʔΩϟϯϓͰ͸
    . . . (ಉ࣌͡୅Λੜ͖͍ͯ·͔͢ʁ)
    ࡢՆΞΧσϛʔΩϟϯϓ 2018 ՆʮΦοέʔάʔάϧɺ
    ॓୊΍ͬͱ͍ͯʂʯୈ 1ɾ2 ظΛ࣮ࢪ
    ʮOK Google, ॓୊΍ͬͱ͍ͯʯͱݴ͏ͱ Google
    Ξγελϯτ͕ʮ॓୊Λ΍Γ·͢ʯͱ౴͑ͯܭࢉ
    υϦϧΛࣗಈੜ੒͠ɺશ໰ࣗಈਖ਼౴ͯ͠ϓϦϯτ͢Δ
    ղ౴ଆ͚ͩͰͳ͘ग़୊ଆ΋ࣗಈԽ͞Ε͍ͯΔ
    (ֶߍؙ͝ͱ૬खʹέϯΧΛചͬͯΔ)
    ߹͍ݴ༿͸ʮୀ۶ͳ॓୊͸ Python ʹ΍ΒͤΑ͏ʯ
    ؆୯ͳͷͰ࠷ॳͷޕલதͰऴΘͬͯ࢒Γͷ೔ఔ͸ผͷ͜ͱΛ
    ࣸਅ͸ܭࢉυϦϧ͕ࣗಈԽͰ͖ͯتͿେֶੜ
    (Ұ൪࠷ޙʹͰ͖ͨ)
    ࣗಈԽͷ࣌୅͕͸͡·ͬͨʂ
    ׽ࣈͷखॻ͖, චࢉ,
    . . .
    ̸∈ ະདྷࣾձͷڞ௨εΩϧ
    ʮࡶۊ͕͚ʯ͔Βʮϧϯόʯ΁
    30 ೥ઌͷະདྷʹ޲͚ͯ — 2019-04-08 – p.3/17

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  4. ࠷ۙͷஶॻ
    ʮ৴༻ͷ৽ੈل ϒϩοΫνΣʔϯޙͷະདྷʯ(2017)
    δϟϯϧ: ୹ฤ SF ϓϩτλΠϐϯά + ղઆ + ໝ૝
    ՟ฎܦࡁͷਰୀ͔Β৽͍͠ܦࡁࣾձͷϝΠΩϯά·Ͱ
    ๯಄ͱ຤ඌ͕୹ฤ SF (2048 ೥ʹλΠϜεϦοϓ)
    2048 ೥ͷࣾձ͸ʁ
    ࠜຊతͳ࢓૊Έ͔ΒࣗಈԽ͞Ε͍ͯΔ
    ʮԿΛ࣮ݱ͍ͨ͠ͷ͔ʯͱ͍͏ɺ
    ͻͱΓͻͱΓͷҙࢥ͕େ੾Ͱ͋Δࣾձ
    ʮࣗಈԽʯ͸ͻͱͭͷॏཁͳΩʔϫʔυ
    ࠷΋େࣄͳϝοηʔδ͸
    ਓ͸ʮଃ༩ʯ͔͠஌Βͳ͍؀ڥͰੜ·Εҭͭ
    30 ೥ઌͷະདྷʹ޲͚ͯ — 2019-04-08 – p.4/17

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  5. ࠓճͷ͓࿩Ͱ͸
    . . .
    ໢ཏతʹ 2049 ೥ࠒΛޠΔͱʮݟ͖ͯͨΑ͏ͳ࿩ʯʹͳͬͯ͠·͏ͷͰ
    . . .
    ͦΕ͸֎ΕΔ͔΋஌Εͳ͍͠ɺͦ΋ͦ΋ʮ༧ଌʯ͍ͨ͠Θ͚Ͱ͸͋Γ·ͤΜ
    ࢲ͕ͨͪͲ͏͍͔ͨ͠ɺ͕ͦ͜໰ΘΕΔ΂͖Ͱ͠ΐ͏
    அยతͳτϐοΫͷू·ΓͰɺࢥߟΛשى͢Δ࿩ʹཹΊ·͢
    ͨͩ͠ɺ͋Γ͕ͪͳʮݱ୅ͷࣾձ͸ͦͷ··ʹɺ৽͍ٕ͠ज़͚ͩೖͬͯΔʯ
    Α͏ͳحົͳੈքͰ͸ͳ͘ (ͭ·Γٕज़ʹԠͯࣾ͡ձ͸มԽ͢ΔͷͰ)ɺ
    શମ͕੔߹తͰ͋Δ͜ͱʹ౒Ί·͢
    30 ೥ઌͷະདྷʹ޲͚ͯ — 2019-04-08 – p.5/17

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  6. ʮ͓ۚʯͷ͜Ε͔Β
    ϏοτίΠϯ͸͓ͦΒ͘
    ʮࣗ෼͕͍࣋ͬͯΔ͓ۚΛࣗ෼ͷ޷͖ʹ࢖͏͜ͱΛ୭ʹ΋ࢭΊͤ͞ͳ͍ʯ
    ͨΊʹੜ·Εͨ
    ͦͷഎܠʹ͸Ͳ͏΍Βʮ͓ۚ = ࣗ༝ʯͱ͍͏ೝ͕ࣝ͋Δ
    ͔ͦ͠͠Ε͸ཪฦͤ͹ʮ͓ۚΛ͍࣋ͬͯͳ͍ = ෆࣗ༝ʯͰ͋Δ͜ͱ
    ͦͯ͠ࢲͨͪͷ΄ͱΜͲ͕ͦ͏ͨ͠ঢ়ଶʹஔ͔Ε͍ͯ·͢
    ʮੈքͷ௒෋༟૚ 26 ਓɺੈքਓޱͷ൒෼ͷ૯ࢿ࢈ͱಉֹͷ෋Λಠ઎ʯ(2019)
    ͦ΋ͦ΋ࢲͨͪͷ஌Δ͓ۚ͸ࢧ഑ͷಓ۩ͱͯ͠஀ੜͨ͠ͱߟ͑ΒΕΔ
    ຊ౰͸ ͦͷෆࣗ༝Λಥഁ͢ΔͨΊʹςΫϊϩδʔΛ࢖͍͍ͨ
    ࢲ͸ͦͷҙຯͰϏοτίΠϯ΍ͦͷྨࣅ඼ͷઃܭʹ൱ఆత
    ʮࢧ഑ͷಓ۩Ͱ͋Δʯ͜ͱ͔Β୤ൽͰ͖͍ͯͳ͍͔Β
    30 ೥ઌͷະདྷʹ޲͚ͯ — 2019-04-08 – p.6/17

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  7. ࢲͷݚڀͷΰʔϧ
    ʮະདྷͷܦࡁ͸ɺͪΐ
    ͬͱҧ͍ͬͯΔͷͰ͢ɻ24 ੈلʹ͸ɺϚωʔ͸ଘࡏ͠ͳ͍
    ͷͰ͢Αɻ
    . . .
    ෋ͷ֫ಘ͸ɺ΋͸΍ࢲͨͪͷੜ׆ͷۦಈྗͰ͸͋Γ·ͤΜɻ
    ࢲͨͪ͸ɺࣗ෼ͱࣾձΛΑΓΑ͘͢ΔͨΊʹಇ͍͍ͯΔͷͰ͢ʯ
    — δϟϯ=Ϧϡ
    οΫɾϐΧʔυ
    “The economics of the future are somewhat different. You see, money doesn’t
    exist in the 24th century.
    . . .
    The acquisition of wealth is no longer the driving
    force in our lives. We work to better ourselves and the rest of humanity.”
    — Capt. Jean-Luc Picard
    ϚωʔΛ࢖Θͣʹ฻Β͢͜ͱ͸Մೳʁ
    ΍ͬͨ͜ͱͳ͍Ͱ͔͢ʁ
    ώϯτ : ਓ͸ଃ༩͔͠஌Βͳ͍ঢ়ଶͰੜ·Εҭͪ·͢
    30 ೥ઌͷະདྷʹ޲͚ͯ — 2019-04-08 – p.7/17

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  8. ৴༻ͷණࢁϞσϧ
    େࣄͳ͜ͱ͸ɺ͍ͭ΋ਫ໘ԼͰ੒͠਱͛ΒΕΔ
    30 ೥ઌͷະདྷʹ޲͚ͯ — 2019-04-08 – p.8/17

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  9. αΠϘʔάࣾձͷ͜Ε͔Β
    αΠϘʔά (cyborg) = αΠόωςΟ
    οΫ (cybernetic) ͳ૊৫ମ (organism)
    ࣾձ͕৽͍͠໨΍ࣖɺख΍଍Λ΋ͭ
    ྫ 1
    : Ͳ͜ʹ͍ͯ΋ʮ౻୔ࢢ෇ۙʹӍӢ͕͍͍ۙͮͯ·͢ʯͱ஌ΕΔ ← ࠓίί
    ྫ 2
    : ࣮ࡍʹՈͷચ୕෺ΛϩϘοτ͕औΓࠐΜͰ৞Ή
    ͍ΖΜͳ͜ͱ͕ࣗಈԽ͞ΕΔ ⇒ ՟ฎ͕ෆཁͳࣾձʁ
    (1) ࿑ಇͷରՁͱͯ͠ͷ՟ฎͱ͍͏ͱ͖ͷʮ࿑ಇʯͷมԽ
    (2)ʮཉ๬ͷೋॏͷҰகʯ͕ࣗಈԽ͞ΕͨΓʮަ׵ʯࣗମ͕ෆཁʹͳΔ
    ⇒ ͔͠͠ɺͦͷ৽ͨͳ໨΍ࣖΛ௨ͯ͠஌ΒΕͨ಺༰͸ਖ਼͍͔͠ʁ
    ੍ͦͯ͠ޚͷ൑அ͸ਖ਼͍͔͠ʁެਖ਼͔ʁόΠΞε͸ແ͍͔ʁ
    ʮࣗಈԽ͞Ε͍ͯΔ࢓૊ΈΛͲ͏৴པͰ͖Δ͔ʯ← ݚڀͷαϒςʔϚ
    30 ೥ઌͷະདྷʹ޲͚ͯ — 2019-04-08 – p.9/17

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  10. ʮ๛͔͞ʯͷ͜Ε͔Β
    ޻ֶऀόοΫϛϯελʔɾϑϥʔʹΑΔఆٛʮ෋ = ਓ਺ × ੜଘ೔਺ʯ
    ࡞ՈμχΤϧɾΫΠϯʹΑΔఆٛʮ෋ = ਓؒͷ҆શอোʯ
    ࡞தͰΰϦϥ͕ͦ͏ޠΓ·͢
    ͳͥΰϦϥʁ → ᓂͷதͷੜ׆ʹ͍ͭͯਓؒͷڭࢣͱͳΕΔ͔Β
    ͳͥᓂͷதʁ → ࣗ෼͕ࣗΒਐΜͰೖ͍ͬͯΔᓂ͕ݟ͑·ͤΜ͔ʁ
    ৯΂෺ʹݤ͕͔͚ΒΕ͍ͯͯɺ·ͣݤΛඞཁͱ͢Δੜ׆= ੜ෺ͱͯ͠౗ࡨ
    ઐ໳෼Խͱ՟ฎͱࠃՈ (ʹΑΔ҆શอো) ͕ࡾͭ೹
    ΋ࣾ͠ձ͕ʮ͓ۚͷͳ͍ੈքʯʹ޲͔͍ͬͯ͘ͳΒɺ
    ੫΋ར५΋ͳ͘ɺ͢΂ͯͷ૊৫͕ NPO ʹͳΔ
    NPO ͱ͸ϛογϣϯͷԼʹू·ͬͨਓʑ͕ࣗݾ࣮ݱͷͨΊʹҰॹʹಇ͘৔
    ʮͳΓ͍ͨࣗ෼ʹͳΕΔ͜ͱʯ͕޾෱ͷࠜݯతͳͻͱͭͷେࣄͳ͔ͨͪ
    30 ೥ઌͷະདྷʹ޲͚ͯ — 2019-04-08 – p.10/17

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  11. ςτϥου (tetrad)
    ϝσΟΞ = ਓͱਓͷؒʹ͋Δ΋ͷ͢΂ͯ (͢΂ͯͷςΫϊϩδʔ΍੓ࡦ)
    ϝσΟΞʹ͍ͭͯͷɺ4 ͭͰͻͱ૊ͷ໰͍͔͚
    ڧԽ : ͦΕ͸ԿΛڧԽ͠ɺڧௐ͢Δͷ͔?
    ਰୀ : ͦΕ͸ԿΛഇΕͤ͞ɺԿʹऔͬͯ୅ΘΔͷ͔?
    ճ෮ : ͦΕ͸͔ͭͯഇΕͯ͠·ͬͨԿΛճ෮͢Δͷ͔?
    ൓స : ͦΕ͸ۃݶ·Ͱԡ͠ਐΊΒΕͨͱ͖ԿΛੜΈͩ͠ɺԿʹస͡Δͷ͔?
    — ϚΫϧʔϋϯʮϝσΟΞͷ๏ଇʯ
    ͋ΒΏΔϝσΟΞʹ͍࣭ͭͯ໰Ͱ͖Δ໰͍
    ͦͷϝσΟΞ͕ਓͱࣾձʹ΋ͨΒ͢෭࡞༻͸Կ͔
    30 ೥ઌͷະདྷʹ޲͚ͯ — 2019-04-08 – p.11/17

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  12. ࣗಈंͷςτϥου (4ͭ૊)
    ΑΓ଎͘Ҡಈ͢Δ
    ΑΓԕ͘΁Ҡಈ͢Δ
    ஍ཧతͳػೳ෼ࢄ
    ौ଺ɺަ௨ࣄނ
    ిؾࣗಈंɺࣗಈӡసं
    ڧԽ ൓స
    ճ෮ ਰୀ
    ϓϥΠϕʔτͳۭؒ
    ࣗ෼ͷҙࢥͰҠಈ͢Δ
    അ΍അंɺؔ࿈࢈ۀ
    ౎ࢢͷډॅۭؒ
    ৽͍͠ϝσΟΞ͸աڈʹਰୀͤ͞ΒΕ͍ͯͨ΋ͷΛճ෮ͤ͞Δ͕ɺຊ౰ʹʮഅʯ͸ճ෮͢Δͷ͔ʁ
    30 ೥ઌͷະདྷʹ޲͚ͯ — 2019-04-08 – p.12/17

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  13. Honda UNI-CUB
    ͜ͷྫʹݶΒͣɺύʔιφϧϞϏϦςΟ͸Ұൠʹਓͷ਎ମʹϑΟ
    οτ͠৐അతͰ͋Γɺ
    ·ͨɺࣗಈӡస͸ਓͱਓҎ֎ͷ஌ੑ͕ڠௐͯ͠໨త஍ʹ޲͔͏ͱ͍͏ҙຯͰഅత
    30 ೥ઌͷະདྷʹ޲͚ͯ — 2019-04-08 – p.13/17

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  14. ۚ༥՟ฎܦࡁγεςϜͷςτϥου (4ͭ૊)
    ަ׵ɾফඅɺஷ஝ɾ౤ࢿ
    ઐ໳෼Խɺ೶ߞɾ࢈ۀࣾձ
    ֨ࠩɾະདྷ͔Βͷࡡऔɾഁ࢈
    σδλϧ௨՟ɺϑΟϯςοΫͱ
    ͦͷઌ
    ڧԽ ൓స
    ճ෮ ਰୀ
    ࢧ഑ͱ෰ैɺώΤϥϧΩʔ
    ݸͷརӹͷ࠷େԽ
    (՟ฎແ͖) ৴༻γεςϜɺଃ༩ܦࡁ
    ઐ໳ະ෼Խɺङྌ࠾ूࣾձ
    ৽͍͠ϝσΟΞ͸աڈʹਰୀͤ͞ΒΕ͍ͯͨ΋ͷΛճ෮ͤ͞Δ͕ɺຊ౰ʹʮଃ༩ܦࡁʯ΍ʮઐ໳ະ෼Խʯ͸ճ෮͢Δͷ͔ʁ
    30 ೥ઌͷະདྷʹ޲͚ͯ — 2019-04-08 – p.14/17

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  15. มԽͷτϨϯυ
    ՟ฎ΍ۚ༥͕ઌӶԽ͢Δͱʮަ׵ɾফඅʯ͸ఀ଺͢Δ
    → γΣΞϦϯάΤίϊϛʔ͕୆಄͢Δ (ϑΟϯςοΫ͕ڀۃԽ͍ͯ͘͠ઌͱͯ͠ͷ)
    ઐ໳ੑΛ൐ΘͣʹܦࡁΛӦΉϥΠϑελΠϧ (AI ΍σδϑΝϒʹΑΔޙԡ͠΋)
    → ՝੫͢΂͖ܦࡁ׆ಈ͕ॖୀ͢Δ
    ެڞΛ୲͏ํ๏ʹมԽ͕ੜ͡Δ ← ࢲͨͪʹͱͬͯͷػձ
    → ͦͷ࣌఺Ͱͦ΋ͦ΋՟ฎͷਰୀ͕ى͖͍ͯΔ (੓෎૊৫ɺӦར૊৫ʹͱͬͯͷ೾ཚͱ NPO/NGO ͷ֓೦ͷ֦େ)
    ՟ฎܦࡁͷݪཧΛਪ͠ਐΊ͍ͯ͘͜ͱͰɺٯʹ՟ฎΛඞཁͱ͠ͳ͍༥௨ͷιϦϡʔγϣϯ͕
    બ୒͞Ε͍͖ͯɺ՟ฎ͸Ή͠Ζද෣୆͔Βୀ͍͍ͯ͘
    → ʮޏ༻ʯ΍ʮചΓͱങ͍ͷ෼཭ʯͱ͍͏ߟ͑ํ่͕յ͢Δ
    ʮࢧ഑ऀ/ඃࢧ഑ऀʯ΍ʮੜ࢈ऀ/ফඅऀʯͱ͍ͬͨؔ܎༹͕͚͍ͯ͘
    ۩ମతʹ͸ͲΜͳࣾձʁ → SF ϓϩτλΠϐϯάͰߟ͑Δ
    30 ೥ઌͷະདྷʹ޲͚ͯ — 2019-04-08 – p.15/17

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  16. ࡾͭ೹ͷऴΘΓ΁
    ͜Ε·Ͱࢲͨͪͷࣾձͷૅͩͬͨ֓೦ͷࡾͭ೹ͷऑମԽɾऴᖼɾ༷มΘΓ
    {͕ى͜Δ | Λى͜͢}
    ࠃՈ
    ՟ฎ ઐ໳෼Խ
    ɾ੫ۚͷ࢓૊ΈʹΑΓ
    ɹࢧ͖͑ͯͨ
    㱺͔͠͠ެڞΛ
    ɹ࣮ݱ͢Δํ๏ʹ
    ɹมԽͷஹ͠
    ɾ҆શอোʹΑΓ
    ɹࢧ͖͑ͯͨ
    㱺͔͠͠ઐ໳ੑʹଇΒͳ͍
    ɹܦࡁ͕ੜ·ΕΔஹ͠
    ɾަ׵ͷඞཁੑʹΑΓࢧ͖͑ͯͨ
    㱺͔͠͠ࢲ༗͔Βڞ༗ɾڞ༻ʹ޲͚ͨมԽͷஹ͠
    30 ೥ઌͷະདྷʹ޲͚ͯ — 2019-04-08 – p.16/17

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  17. ࢲ͔Βͷ͓࿩ͷ·ͱΊʹ୅͑ͯ
    ͜Ε͔Βࢲͨͪ͸ɺগͳ͘ͱ΋աڈ 400 ೥ɺ௕͍εύϯͰ͸աڈ 1 ສ೥΄Ͳͷ
    ࣾձͷมԽΛʮૣ໭͠ʯͯ࠶ߏ੒͢ΔͷͰ͸ʁ
    աڈ 400 ೥ — גࣜձࣾ΍தԝۜߦͱ͍ͬͨ࢓૊Έ
    աڈ 1 ສ೥ — ೶ߞɾ࢈ۀࣾձ
    ʮૣ໭͠ʯ— ࢲͨͪͷৗࣝ͸͍ͣΕʹͤΑٸ଎ʹ࣌୅஗Εʹͳ͍ͬͯ͘
    ະདྷ͸Ή͠Ζङྌ࠾ूࣾձͷಛ௃Λඋ͑ΔͷͰ͸ʁ (abundant future)
    ङྌ࠾ूࣾձʹϚωʔ͸͙ͦΘͳ͍
    ϛογϣϯͷݩʹू·ΓɺAI ΍ϩϘςΟΫεͷྗΛआΓͯɺࣗݾ࣮ݱͷͨΊʹ
    ڞʹ୳ٻ͢ΔͷͰ͸ʁ
    ͢΂ͯͷ૊৫͸ NPO or life-long kindergarten (͜Ͳ΋ͨͪͷ༡ͼͷఉ) ʹͳΔ
    30 ೥ઌͷະདྷʹ޲͚ͯ — 2019-04-08 – p.17/17

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