DARE-UK Introduction

Introduction to the DARE-UK programme. Presentation given at the DARE-UK kick-off meeting, June 2019.

Transcript

1. DARE-UK kick-off University of Bristol, 18th June 2019 dareuk.blogs.bristol.ac.uk @uk_dare
2. Detection and Attribution of Regional greenhouse gas Emissions in the UK § NERC highlight topic § £3M § 11 institutions § 10 international partners
3. Previous work § DECC network § GAUGE § GREENHOUSE § RAGNARoCC
4. DECC network § CO2 , CH4 and N2 O at all sites § Halocarbons at Mace Head, Ireland and Tacolneston, Norfolk Mace Head Ridge Hill Angus Tacolneston Stanley, et al., 2018
5. Atmospheric transport using NAME § Met Office NAME model § UM meteorology § DECC/GAUGE sites MHD (Mace Head) RGL (Ridge Hill) TTA (Angus) BSD (Bilsdale) TAC (Tacolneston) HFD (Heathfield)
6. Contributions to UK NIR § UK one of only three countries to submit top-down estimates to UNFCCC UK National Inventory Report (2018)
7. Previous work § White et al., 2019 § Two terrestrial biosphere flux models (CARDAMOM & JULES) § UKGHG anthropogenic flux § DECC/GAUGE obs. White, et al., 2019
8. Previous work § White et al., 2019 § Posterior biosphere CO2 § Anthropogenic + coastal fluxes fixed White, et al., 2019
9. Challenges § Policy makers need: – sector-level information – estimates on sub-national (e.g. regions/cities), sub-annual scales § Bottom-up and top-down estimates often don’t agree, but usually we don’t know why Lunt, unpublished
10. Objectives § Attribute the contribution of individual source and sink sectors to the variability in measured GHG concentrations over the UK and Ireland § Reconcile any mismatch between UK top-down and bottom-up fluxes § Determine the overall level of confidence in the UK’s GHG emissions by combining top-down and bottom-up approaches § Provide the scientific evidence-base and recommendations to the UK government to improve the UK’s reporting of GHGs to the UNFCCC, and to contribute to the Transparency Framework and the Global Stocktake
11. Technical developments § Time- and space-resolved bottom-up flux estimates from anthropogenic, terrestrial biogenic and aquatic systems with improved uncertainty quantification § Use of new measurements of co-emitted tracers and GHG isotopologues to separate fluxes from different source sectors § High-resolution remotely-sensed data of GHGs and co-emitted tracers § Improved simulations of atmospheric GHG dispersion
12. Work packages § WP1. Bottom-up flux estimates (CO2 , CH4 , N2 O) [Levy] – New datasets for spatial and temporal disaggregation of bottom-up fluxes in UKGHG – Improved biogenic CO2 fluxes (CARDAMOM) – Agricultural information to improve CH4 flux estimates – New process model estimates of time-resolved N2 O flux – Bottom-up estimates of co-emitted tracer emissions – New space and time resolved coastal estimates – Ireland emissions included in UKGHG
13. Work packages § WP2: Atmospheric measurements [Arnold] – New tracers of anthropogenic CO2 (O2 , 14CO2 , CO, NOx ) – High frequency CH4 isotopologues – CH4 isotopic source signatures – 222Rn for model evaluation – Combined satellite dataset
14. Work packages § WP3: Top-down estimation [Ganesan] – Improvements to NAME model – Model evaluation using 222Rn – Multi-tracer inverse modelling approach – Sector inversions for CO2 (using O2 , 14CO2 , NOx , CO), CH4 (using isotopologues and ethane), and N2 O – Satellite inversions
15. Work packages § WP4: Integration – Reconciling top-down and bottom-up fluxes (spatial/temporal patters, uncertainty quantification, which developments will lead to most future uncertainty reduction, etc.) – Combined top-down/bottom-up pilot study (UKGHG / NAME) – Atmospheric detectability of mitigation measures
16. Management team PI: Matt Rigby Deputy: Heather Graven Project manager: Aoife Grant Management board Work package leaders WP 1 Bottom-up (Levy) WP 2 Measurements (Arnold) WP 3 Modelling (Ganesan) WP 4 Integration (Manning) Quarterly telecons Annual project meeting Quarterly telecons Annual project meeting Frequent telecons Biannual report to NERC Annual project meeting Steering Committee John Watterson (Ricardo) Sam Bradley (BEIS) Richard Engelen (ECMWF) Oksana Tarasova (WMO IG3IS) Impact team: Jo House, PI, WP leads, coordinator: Aoife Grant Management structure
17. Schedule
18. Stakeholder engagement § Currently compiling list of stakeholders § Annual newsletter § Stakeholder engagement events planned § Reports + presentations to National Inventory Steering Committee § Contributions to UK NIR § Presentations to related projects (e.g. VERIFY and CHE)?
19. Other outreach and impact § GHG summer school § Public outreach events (e.g. NERC UnEarthed) § @uk_dare and https://dareuk.blogs.bristol.ac.uk