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Beware of Survivorship Bias! (Devnexus)

Beware of Survivorship Bias! (Devnexus)

Most talks on a typical conference schedule contain success stories of technology. This could lead to survivorship bias. Survivorship bias causes you to draw false conclusions because you mostly heard about successes, but hardly ever about failures. Yet failures provide us with lots of valuable knowledge: when not to apply a certain technique, pattern or process.

So no success stories in this talk! Just some ‘silver bullets’ we tried to use to solve our problems, but turned out to be Very Bad Ideas™. We’ll share how survivorship bias can easily influence your ideas and cloud your judgement.

After attending this talk you’ll be more aware of survivorship bias and what you can do to keep your head cool, no matter how many ‘silver bullets’ are fired at you.

Maarten Mulders

April 10, 2024
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  1. Do you need a database? Don't use a blockchain Does

    it require shared write access? Are writers known and trusted? Do you want/need to use a trusted 3rd party? Yes Yes No No No Are writers' interests unified? Yes Yes No Do you need to control functionality? No Yes Do you want transactions to be public or private? No Use a public blockchain Public Where is consensus determined? Use a hybrid blockchain Private Inter-firm Use a private blockchain Intra-firm Yes https://medium.com/@sbmeunier/when-do-you-need-blockchain-decision-models-a5c40e7c9ba1 #SurvivorshipBias
  2. Can you articulate a real business problem? Try a normal

    database. Could this have been fixed before blockchains? Is this a 'digital identities' and 'blockchains are free' play? Should or could an entity have overall control? Yes No No Yes Yes Will all participants need to upgrade/replace systems? No Yes Will participants mind their data being visible? No You may have a use case No Can they adopt? Do the benefits justify the costs of adoption? Yes Yes Yes https://medium.com/@sbmeunier/when-do-you-need-blockchain-decision-models-a5c40e7c9ba1 #SurvivorshipBias
  3. election blockchain writers known? yes no writers trusted? yes no

    writers' interests uni ed? yes no trusted third party? yes no private transactions? yes no #SurvivorshipBias
  4. It won't solve It won't solve It won't solve It

    won't solve It won't solve everything! everything! everything! everything! everything! Just because a conference speaker solved his/her problem with some new, cool technique doesn't mean it will also solve yours. https://www.pexels.com/photo/2-hands-holding-1-jigsaw-puzzle-piece-each-164531/ #SurvivorshipBias
  5. Conference-driven Conference-driven Conference-driven Conference-driven Conference-driven development development development development development

    Learn new skills at a conference, and then use it to solve pretty much everything. https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1130503 #SurvivorshipBias
  6. Overengineering Overengineering Overengineering Overengineering Overengineering If you apply CDD to

    everything you do, your solutions will quickly become overengineered. https://www. ickr.com/photos/footfun/2454000816 #SurvivorshipBias
  7. Beating Beating Beating Beating Beating Survivorship Survivorship Survivorship Survivorship Survivorship

    Bias Bias Bias Bias Bias https://pxhere.com/en/photo/958105 #SurvivorshipBias
  8. Understand the Understand the Understand the Understand the Understand the

    problem first problem first problem first problem first problem first https://pxhere.com/en/photo/843810 #SurvivorshipBias
  9. Track A Track B 09:00- 09:50 QWERTY or DVORAK? Debunking

    the Keyboard Layout Myths Beware of Survivorship Bias! 10:00- 10:50 How I Created a MMORPG Game Using Haskell Only An Introduction to Kubernetes 11:00- 11:50 Monitoring Kubernetes with Prometheus Return of the Blockchain #SurvivorshipBias
  10. Gain some experience Gain some experience Gain some experience Gain

    some experience Gain some experience first first first first first This could mean you have to wait until next year's conference in order to appreciate fully the contents of an advanced talk. https://pxhere.com/en/photo/918274 #SurvivorshipBias
  11. Build your personal Build your personal Build your personal Build

    your personal Build your personal conference schedule conference schedule conference schedule conference schedule conference schedule accordingly accordingly accordingly accordingly accordingly Value topics relevant to your experience over 'the next silver bullet'. https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1370392 #SurvivorshipBias
  12. Make sure you meet Make sure you meet Make sure

    you meet Make sure you meet Make sure you meet the prerequisites the prerequisites the prerequisites the prerequisites the prerequisites Don't attend a talk that proposes a solution to a problem, if you don't understand the problem yet. https://pxhere.com/en/photo/843810 #SurvivorshipBias
  13. Remember the Remember the Remember the Remember the Remember the

    Hype Cycle Hype Cycle Hype Cycle Hype Cycle Hype Cycle https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1262347 #SurvivorshipBias
  14. Possible Talk Title On the Rise NoSQL: The New Reality

    At the Peak NoSQL Will Change Your Life and Fix Your Projects Sliding Into the Trough How We Do NoSQL at Cool, Inc. Climbing the Slope Modern NoSQL Patterns and Practices Entering the Plateau NoSQL 2.0 with SilverBulletDB #SurvivorshipBias
  15. Does the speaker Does the speaker Does the speaker Does

    the speaker Does the speaker mention any mention any mention any mention any mention any drawbacks? drawbacks? drawbacks? drawbacks? drawbacks? The best talks contain detailed comparisons of pros and cons https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b2/Balance_scale_IMGP9728.jpg #SurvivorshipBias
  16. Use the Q&A at the Use the Q&A at the

    Use the Q&A at the Use the Q&A at the Use the Q&A at the end of the talk end of the talk end of the talk end of the talk end of the talk Scary at rst perhaps, but take comfort in the fact that the rest of the audience is rooting for you. https://www.pexels.com/photo/monopoly-car-piece-1634213/ #SurvivorshipBias
  17. Try to arrange a Try to arrange a Try to

    arrange a Try to arrange a Try to arrange a 'hallway meeting' 'hallway meeting' 'hallway meeting' 'hallway meeting' 'hallway meeting' Which basically means just bumping into them in the hallways! https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1454179 #SurvivorshipBias
  18. How would you you you you you solve the puzzle?

    https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1207943 #SurvivorshipBias
  19. Start tinkering Start tinkering Start tinkering Start tinkering Start tinkering

    https://pxhere.com/en/photo/901709 Learning Through Tinkering (Tom Cools) #SurvivorshipBias
  20. Experiment Experiment Experiment Experiment Experiment If you cannot reproduce the

    problem and the solution, there must be another factor at play. https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1004202 #SurvivorshipBias
  21. Look at the numbers Look at the numbers Look at

    the numbers Look at the numbers Look at the numbers Succeeded Failed Same approach Di erent approach → What do they tell you? https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1437973 #SurvivorshipBias
  22. The community needs The community needs The community needs The

    community needs The community needs you! you! you! you! you! Blog, tweet or speak about your failures and what you've learned from them! #SurvivorshipBias
  23. Search StackOverflow Search StackOverflow Search StackOverflow Search StackOverflow Search StackOverflow

    Blogs, videos and ChatGPT will tell you the happy path. StackOver ow will tell you the non-happy path. https://pxhere.com/en/photo/625549 #SurvivorshipBias
  24. Master Your Tools Master Your Tools Master Your Tools Master

    Your Tools Master Your Tools Use your tools long enough to really get to know them. https://pxhere.com/en/photo/704019 #SurvivorshipBias
  25. Maven's Dependency Tree mvn dependency:tree | grep log4j mvn dependency:tree

    | grep log4j -C 3 mvn dependency:tree -Dincludes=*:log4j*:* #SurvivorshipBias
  26. Tempting Tempting Tempting Tempting Tempting Abraham Maslow Toward a Psychology

    of Being "I suppose it is tempting, if the only tool you have is a hammer, to treat everything as if it were a nail." https://www.pexels.com/photo/black-claw-hammer-on-brown-wooden-plank-209235/ #SurvivorshipBias
  27. Take Aways Take Aways Take Aways Take Aways Take Aways

    1. Share your failures and lessons learned! 2. Start tinkering! 3. See you in the Hallway track! #SurvivorshipBias