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Predictive Modeling and Deep Learning

Predictive Modeling and Deep Learning

Entretiens du Nouveau Monde Industriel 2015, Paris.

Olivier Grisel

December 15, 2015
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  1. Predictive Modeling
    &
    Deep Learning
    Olivier Grisel - ENMI - Paris 2015

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  2. Outline
    • Predictive Modeling & Artificial Intelligence
    • Deep Learning
    • Computer Vision
    • Natural Language Understanding and Machine
    Translation
    • Learning to Reason and Answer Questions

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  3. Predictive Modeling

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  4. type
    (category)
    # rooms
    (int)
    surface
    (float m2)
    public trans
    (boolean)
    Apartment 3 50 TRUE
    House 5 254 FALSE
    Duplex 4 68 TRUE
    Apartment 2 32 TRUE
    sold
    (float k€)
    450
    430
    712
    234
    features target
    samples
    (train)

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  5. type
    (category)
    # rooms
    (int)
    surface
    (float m2)
    public trans
    (boolean)
    Apartment 3 50 TRUE
    House 5 254 FALSE
    Duplex 4 68 TRUE
    Apartment 2 32 TRUE
    sold
    (float k€)
    450
    430
    712
    234
    features target
    samples
    (train)
    Apartment 2 33 TRUE
    House 4 210 TRUE
    samples
    (test)
    ?
    ?

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  6. Training
    text docs
    images
    sounds
    transactions
    Labels
    Machine
    Learning
    Algorithm
    Model
    Predictive Modeling Data Flow
    Feature vectors

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  7. New
    text doc
    image
    sound
    transaction
    Model
    Expected
    Label
    Predictive Modeling Data Flow
    Feature vector
    Training
    text docs
    images
    sounds
    transactions
    Labels
    Machine
    Learning
    Algorithm
    Feature vectors

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  8. Inventory forecasting
    & trends detection
    Predictive modeling
    examples
    Personalized
    radios
    Fraud detection
    Virality and readers
    engagement
    Predictive maintenance Personality matching

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  9. Artificial Intelligence
    Predictive Modeling
    (Data Analytics)

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  10. Artificial Intelligence
    Predictive Modeling
    (Data Analytics)
    Self-driving cars
    IBM Watson
    Movie
    recommendations
    Predictive
    Maintenance

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  11. Artificial Intelligence
    Hand-crafted
    symbolic
    reasoning
    systems
    Predictive Modeling
    (Data Analytics)

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  12. Artificial Intelligence
    Hand-crafted
    symbolic
    reasoning
    systems
    Machine Learning
    Predictive Modeling
    (Data Analytics)

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  13. Artificial Intelligence
    Hand-crafted
    symbolic
    reasoning
    systems
    Machine Learning
    Deep
    Learning
    Predictive Modeling
    (Data Analytics)

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  14. Artificial Intelligence
    Hand-crafted
    symbolic
    reasoning
    systems
    Machine Learning
    Deep
    Learning
    Predictive Modeling
    (Data Analytics)

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  15. Deep Learning
    • Neural Networks from the 90’s rebranded in 2006+
    • « Neuron » is a loose inspiration (not important)
    • Stacked architecture of modules that compute
    internal abstract representations from the data
    • Parameters are tuned from labeled examples

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  16. Deep Learning for
    Computer Vision

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  17. Deep Learning in the 90’s
    • Yann LeCun invented Convolutional Networks
    • First NN successfully trained with many layers

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  18. Early success at OCR

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  19. Natural image classification
    until 2012
    Feature
    Extractions
    Classification
    Data
    independent
    Supervised
    Learning
    dog

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  20. Natural image classification
    until 2012
    Feature
    Extractions
    Classification
    Data
    independent
    Supervised
    Learning
    dog
    cat

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  21. Natural image classification
    until 2012
    Feature
    Extractions
    Classification
    Data
    independent
    Supervised
    Learning
    cat

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  22. NN
    Layer
    Supervised
    Learning
    dog
    Supervised
    Learning
    Supervised
    Learning
    NN
    Layer
    NN
    Layer
    Image classification today

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  23. Image classification today
    NN
    Layer
    Supervised
    Learning
    Supervised
    Learning
    Supervised
    Learning
    NN
    Layer
    NN
    Layer
    dog
    cat

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  24. Image classification today
    NN
    Layer
    Supervised
    Learning
    Supervised
    Learning
    Supervised
    Learning
    NN
    Layer
    NN
    Layer
    dog
    cat

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  25. Image classification today
    NN
    Layer
    Supervised
    Learning
    Supervised
    Learning
    Supervised
    Learning
    NN
    Layer
    NN
    Layer
    dog
    cat

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  26. ImageNet Challenge 2012
    • 1.2M images labeled with 1000 object categories
    • AlexNet from the deep learning team of U. of
    Toronto wins with 15% error rate vs 26% for the
    second (traditional CV pipeline)

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  28. ImageNet Challenge 2013
    • Clarifai ConvNet model wins at 11% error rate
    • Many other participants used ConvNets

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  30. ImageNet Challenge 2014
    • Monster model: GoogLeNet at
    6.7% error rate

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  31. GoogLeNet vs Andrej
    • Andrej Karpathy evaluated human performance
    (himself): ~5% error rate
    • "It is clear that humans will soon only be able to
    outperform state of the art image classification
    models by use of significant effort, expertise, and
    time.”
    source: What I learned from competing against a ConvNet on ImageNet

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  32. ImageNet Challenge 2015
    • Microsoft Research Asia wins
    with networks with depths
    ranging from 34 to 152 layers
    • New record: 3.6% error rate

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  33. Recurrent
    Neural Networks

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  34. source: The Unreasonable Effectiveness of RNNs

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  35. Applications of RNNs
    • Natural Language Processing

    (e.g. Language Modeling, Sentiment Analysis)
    • Machine Translation

    (e.g. English to French)
    • Speech recognition: audio to text
    • Speech synthesis: text to audio
    • Biological sequence modeling (DNA, Proteins)

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  36. Language modeling
    source: The Unreasonable Effectiveness of RNNs

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  37. Shakespeare
    source: The Unreasonable Effectiveness of RNNs

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  38. Linux source code

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  39. Attentional architectures
    for Machine Translation

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  40. Neural MT
    source: From language modeling to machine translation

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  41. Attentional Neural MT
    source: From language modeling to machine translation

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  42. Attention == Alignment
    source: Neural MT by Jointly Learning to Align and Translate

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  43. source: Show, Attend and Tell

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  44. Learning to answer
    questions

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  45. Paraphrases from web news

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  46. source: Teaching Machines to Read and Comprehend

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  47. source: Teaching Machines to Read and Comprehend

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  48. Conclusion
    • ML and DL progress is fast paced
    • Many applications already in production (e.g.
    speech, image indexing, translation, face
    recognition)
    • Very promising results for QA and robot control
    • Machine Learning is now moving from pattern
    recognition to higher level reasoning

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  50. Thank you!
    http://twitter.com/ogrisel
    http://speakerdeck.com/ogrisel
    TIP: download the PDF version of the
    slides to click on the source links

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