The Fed's Hawkish Pivot & Global Bond Shock 聯儲局的「鷹派」轉向與全球債市震盪

This report outlines how resilient US economic indicators—such as robust capital goods orders and rebounding inflation expectations—have triggered a hawkish shift among Federal Reserve officials. As markets rapidly reprice policy expectations toward potential rate hikes, US and global long-term government bond yields have surged to multi-decade highs. Compounded by weak auction demand and secondary market liquidity strains, the report highlights the broad macro domino effects and asset repricing driven by a prolonged "higher for longer" interest rate environment.

這份報告分析了強勁的美國經濟數據（如核心資本財訂單增長及通脹預期反彈）如何促使聯儲局官員立場轉向鷹派。隨著市場迅速重新定價加息預期，美國及全球長年期國債收益率全線飆升至數十年高位。報告同時指出，在國債拍賣需求疲軟及流動性受壓的背景下，「更高、更久」（Higher for Longer）的利率環境正引發全球債券市場的連鎖震盪與資產重估。

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