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Send More Riders

65bea007fa26257adff7aaf5b7268e09?s=47 peteowlett
February 02, 2016

Send More Riders

Predictive scheduling for an on demand delivery fleet



February 02, 2016

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  1. Send More Riders! Predictive scheduling for an on demand delivery

    fleet @PeterOwlett
  2. High quality food, delivered fast and on demand

  3. None
  4. Life of an order

  5. Life of an order

  6. Utilisation % Hour of Day (Colour = Day of Week)

  7. We need enough drivers to deliver on time, but not

    so many we lose money
  8. •Restaurants take longer than expected to make food •Items get

    missed - we have to go back and get them •Drivers become unavailable (flat tyre etc) •Customers hard to find It gets harder …
  9. Exam question How many drivers should we schedule for the

    next two weeks in each part of London over 15 minute blocks?
  10. Before we dive in - a quick apology

  11. Lets formulate! Where • O is orders • d is

    date • z is zone
  12. Forecasting Daily Volume

  13. This book is awesome And Free!!! - https://www.otexts.org/fpp

  14. Forecasting Daily Volume

  15. None
  16. Statsmodels supports this out of the box Forecasting Daily Volume

    # Decompose the raw time series decomposition = sm.tsa.seasonal_decompose(data.values, freq=7) # Extract individual components all_trend = decomposition.trend all_seasonal = decomposition.seasonal all_resid = decomposition.resid
  17. First Results

  18. Holidays (and Weather) Forecasting Daily Volume

  19. Improving the seasonal 50% Improvement!

  20. •Vary the training range •Train on np.log(series) and transform back

    Signal in the noise? Looks Seasonal Looks Seasonal Random Noise
  21. Because we can chart each series, we can reason about

    how to improve our model
  22. Forecast each component Forecasting Daily Volume # Forecast Trend lm_lin

    = LinearRegression().fit(dates, trend_vals) forecast_trend = lm_lin.predict(forecast_window) # Forecast Seasonal seasonal_pattern = np.tile(base_seasonal_pattern, math.ceil(days_to_forecast / 7.0)) forecast_seasonal = seasonal_pattern[0: days_to_forecast]
  23. Forecasting Daily Volume

  24. Where • O is orders • D is demand •

    E is efficiency • z is zone • d is date • w is weekday • t is time of day Converting Daily Orders to Driver Hours
  25. Zero to One Scale - neat trick Estimating Demand Curves

    scaled_series = df_mean_curves.order_volume / df_mean_curves.groupby(['zone', ‘day_of_week’])\ .transform(np.sum).order_volume
  26. Estimating Demand Curves Ratio of daily orders per unit time

    Hour of Day
  27. Efficiency Orders per driver per hour Hour of Day

  28. Final Forecast

  29. Getting the forecast out into the real world

  30. Volumes to Shifts

  31. Deployment

  32. SUCCESS!!!

  33. 1. While not as powerful as R, Statsmodels does give

    you core time series tools 2. Seasonal decomposition is very meaningful to human beings 3. By using all python, we were able to ship quickly Stuff we learned
  34. Thanks!