Forecasting Fundamentals • Forecasting Models • How Sugar Supports Forecasting Models • Setting Up a Committed Forecast Model • Inspecting and Analyzing the Forecast • Q&A Agenda 4 4
• This material contains forward-looking statements relating to SugarCRM’s expectations and plans regarding our products. These statements are based on the current expectations and beliefs of SugarCRM’s management as of the date this material is issued. • Our roadmap could change substantially from what is presented here due to a variety of factors, some of which are beyond our control. Such changes can be made by us without updating these forward-looking statements.
a reliable sales forecast: • Grow faster those who do not • Higher percent of team meets quota than those who do not • By 2026, 65% of B2B sales organizations will transition from intuition-based to data driven decision making, using technology that unites workflows, data and analytics. Why Spend Your Time on Forecasts? 6
do the Work! • CRM-managed pipeline processes support complete and accurate opportunity details • Common areas for data discrepancy and failure • Quotes • Contracts • Opportunities • Conversation details • Capture and manage this data together in CRM! 7
Definition Rep Quota A sales reps’ revenue goal Company Target A company’s revenue goal Attainment Percentage of quota or target achieved Qualified Opportunity A sales opportunity where there is a confirmed need and interest Open Opportunity Opportunities that are not won, lost, or abandoned Pipeline The sum of the value of all your open opportunities Coverage Ratio Value of Pipeline expected to close this period divided by Quota this period. For instance, if your pipeline in quarter is $1,000,000 and your quota is $300,000 your coverage ratio is 3.3X Forecast With a chosen forecast methodology, a calculation of the portion of the pipeline that will become revenue in a period Call An amount representing the forecast for a period by an individual responsible for a portion of the sales organization. For instance, a sales manager may make a forecast ‘call’ of $1,000,000 in revenue on behalf of their team. Committed Opportunity An opportunity expected to by won in a specified period such as this quarter Upside An opportunity where there is a chance that it may be won in a specified period but is not committed Sales Stage Where an opportunity sits in regard to an organizations shared sales process. Typical sales stages are New, Qualified, Presented, Quoted, Selected, Won, Lost, or Abandoned. Close Date The date when an opportunity is expected to turn into an order
Forecast Method 11 Weighted Probability Forecasts Each sales stage is assigned a Win probability Smaller organizations or firms without a need for strict sales goals It is ‘automatic’ and the sales team do not need to run a forecast cadence It is a directional forecast only and can be heavily skewed by ‘outlier’ opportunities Forecast Type Description Who? Pros Cons Historical Forecasts Historical average ‘Days to Close’ are calculated together with ‘Win Rates’ Organization with high opportunity velocity, lower opportunity value, or stable conditions It is ‘automatic’ and the sales team do not need to run a forecast cadence You are looking back at the past and not at the present and future states of your situation Committed Forecasts Opportunities are maintained with an expected close date and marked as either committed or not Larger organizations needing set reliable expectations about revenue Encourages a deeper individual responsibility to committed deals and surfaces weak pipelines. Requires a lot of inspection of committed opportunities
12 Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 + + + = Current Period Forecast New Qualified Quoted Selected $100K x 25% = $25K $75K x 35% = $26.5K $50K x 50% = $25K $25K x 80% = $20K + + + = $96.5K Current Quarter Pipeline Current Period Pipeline Value x Stage 1 Win Rate Current Period Pipeline Value x Stage 2 Win Rate Current Period Pipeline Value x Stage 3 Win Rate Current Period Pipeline Value x Stage 4 Win Rate
volume of opportunities is high, forecasts can be calculated to serve as the forecast or to support other forecast models. • Formulas with standard deviations of time lag trailing averages for days to close and win rates can be built to forecast for your organization. Historical Forecasting 14 Days to Close and Win Rates by Stage Opportunities x x
the pipeline are updated with a commitment indicator when the sales rep is confident that the opportunity will be won by a specified date • Sales reps and managers make periodic forecast ‘Calls’ based on committed pipeline, historical pipeline movement, available pipeline ‘Coverage’, and market conditions Committed Forecasting 16 Opportunity Name Opportunity Value Expected Close Date Committed 1,000 Widgets to ABC Corp $8,800 June 01 Yes 500 Widgets to XYZ Inc. $5,000 June 13 No 300 Gizmos to XYZ Inc. $9,000 June 23 Yes Forecast ‘Call’ addition $5,000 Period Forecast $22,800 + = Committed Pipeline $17,800
Forecast Cadence, each team member inspects their opportunity pipeline and prepares to defend their forecast position • What is inspected on each opportunity: Inspecting the Forecast, Preparing to Make a Call 25 Opportunity Why is the deal committed? Have the contracts been sent to the customer? Have we learned what we would expect for the current sales stage? Have we discovered the competitive positioning? Contacts Are we speaking to enough people? Are we speaking to the right people? Who are our supporters or detractors? Interactions When did we interact last? When do we meet next? Does the interaction pace match the sales stage?
1. You will be more likely to meet your revenue goals with a disciplined forecasting process 2. Let the platform do the work, expect your CRM platform to help with the process 3. Establish a consistent weekly or bi-weekly pipeline inspection and forecast call cadence 4. Inspect the pipeline opportunities for risk and sales process compliance 5. Hold each other accountable 6. Measure how accurate your forecasts are and continually refine the process 34
us make a great product! • Email Ellen True at [email protected] to schedule a feedback session Would you like to see how this works for you? • Schedule a 30 minute 1 on 1 briefing by emailing [email protected] 35
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