Dr. John Ulimwengu: Seven Years of the Implementation of the Malabo Declaration

Making Sense of the Malabo Theory of Change

Transcript

1. Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI SEVEN YEARS OF IMPLEMENTATION OF THE MALABO DECLARATION: MAKING SENSE OF THE MALABO THEORY OF CHANGE Dr. John Ulimwengu (Presenter)
2. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Motivation • From Maputo to Malabo • Maputo: allocate 10% budget to agriculture to achieve 6% agriculture growth, and reduce poverty rate by 50% by 2015 • Malabo: Maputo +: 7 commitments • The BR framework • Mute on causation • Mute on spillover • Mute on tradeoffs. • Need for a Theory of Change for Malabo
3. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Making the case for a Theory of Change for Malabo Declaration • Clarify interventions: Map out the causal pathways from specific interventions to desired outcomes. • Enhance stakeholder alignment: Align the diverse array of stakeholders, including governments, development partners, private sector players, and farmers, around a common understanding of the goals and how they can be achieved. • Improve communication: Offer a clear and compelling narrative that can be used to communicate the objectives and strategies of CAADP/Malabo to a broader audience, thereby garnering wider support and understanding.
4. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Making the case for a Theory of Change for Malabo Declaration (III) Benin, Ulimwengu, and Tefera (2018).
5. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Econometric Analysis (II) • Over 2017-2021 period, out of the 45 BR performance categories (pc), only 14, about 31.1%, have had significant total effects on the Africa Agricultural Transformation Score (AATS). • This implies that either the selection of drivers may have been overly ambitious, or the implementation process has not been very effective.
6. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Examples of key results (I) •Budget lines on social protection: increases the proportion of 6-23 months old children who meet the minimum acceptable diet and agricultural labor productivity. •Domestic food price volatility index : stability increases the proportion of 6-23 months old children who meet the minimum acceptable diet. •Domestic private sector investment in agriculture as % of agriculture value added: increases agricultural land productivity.
7. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Examples of key results (II) • Proportion of men and women engaged in agriculture with access to financial services: increases the proportion of 6-23 months old children who meet the Minimum Acceptable Diet • Reduction rate of Post-Harvest Losses for (at least) the 5 national priority commodities: decreases the prevalence of underweight (% of children under 5 years old) while increasing the growth rate of the agriculture value added and growth rate agricultural labor productivity. • Share of agriculture land under sustainable land management practices : increases the growth rate of yields for the 5 national priority commodities • Total Agricultural Research Spending as a share of Agricultural GDP : reduces the prevalence (%) of food insecure adults.
8. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Concluding Remarks • Across the continent, some countries have made significant progress in implementing the CAADP/Malabo agenda or related processes, while others still face greater challenges. • In general, commitment to CAADP values and principles have been achieved has not always produced the expected results. • Several policy outcomes have failed to produce the expected impact on development outcomes. • Improving data quality is critical in designing, implementing and monitoring policy-relevant evidence in support of CAADP/Malabo agenda. • Continued learning from both failed and successful pathways. • Develop a clear theory of change for post-Malabo Agenda.
9. THANK YOU