Advances in the geodemographic study of population and place

A talk given at the Oxford Institute for Population and Ageing, University of Oxford 4/6/14

Transcript

1. ! www.alex-singleton.com! @alexsingleton! Advances in the Geodemographic Study of Population and Place Alex Singleton Reader in Geographic Information Science Department of Geography and Planning
2. Overview • A need for geodemographics • Geodemographic lineage • Building a geodemographic • Brief geodemographic applications • Geodemographic Futures…
3. http://www.google.co.uk/intl/en_uk/earth/
4. http://www.openstreetmap.org
5. https://www.flickr.com/photos/bluesquarething/5512923662/
6. http://www.alex-singleton.com/r/2014/02/05/2011-census-open-atlas-project-version-two/
7. 134,567 maps; 6.9 years; £138,207
8. Hospital School University Retail Property Banking Telecoms Transport Police
9. http://www.google.co.uk/intl/en_uk/earth/ 52: POORER FAMILIES, MANY CHILDREN, TERRACED HOUSING 51: YOUNG PEOPLE IN SMALL, LOW COST TERRACES 59: DEPRIVED AREAS AND HIGH- RISE FLATS 11: SETTLED SUBURBIA, OLDER PEOPLE Urban Adversity Affluent Achievers
10. • Collapsed census • Urbanisation • Segregation • Social Rank
16. http://acorn.caci.co.uk/ http://www.experian.co.uk/marketing-services/products/mosaic-uk.html
17. Inputs Area V1 V2 V3 V4 V5 V6 V7 V8 V9 V10 ... Area1 Area2 Area3 Area4 Area5 Area6 Area7 ...
18. Data Resolution and Coverage Census Data Non Census Data Resolution: Person - Larger Area Coverage: Variable Resolution: Output Area Coverage: 100%
19. Data Modelling • Survey data • Model outcomes for whole population based on “small” samples. • Imputing small area characteristics from larger area statistics...e.g.... 100 Council Tax! Band E Property! 25! 25! 25! 25! Car! Ownership! Crime!
21. Variable 1 Variable 2 Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3 Cluster Analysis
22. Area Cluster Area1 1 Area2 1 Area3 2 Area4 1 Area5 3 Area6 3 Area7 3 Area8 2 ... Output
23. Methodological Differences Individual Household Area
24. Methodological Differences A1: Struggling suburbs A2: Suburban localities B1: Disadvantaged diaspora B2: Bangladeshi enclaves B3: Students and minority mix C1: Asian owner occupiers C2: Transport service workers C3: East End Asians C4: Elderly Asians D1: Educational advantage D2: City central E1: City and student fringe E2: Graduation occupation F1: City enclaves F2: Affluent suburbs G1: Affordable transitions G2: Public sector and service employees H1: Detached retirement H2: Not quite Home−Counties
25. Areas Attributes PCA Methodological Differences
26. • Log • Box Cox • Inverse Hyperbolic Sine http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Negative_and_positive_skew_diagrams_(English).svg Methodological Differences
27. Methodological Differences • Input • Percent • Ratio • Index Scores • Measurement scale • Range • z-scores
28. Methodological Differences
29. Methodological Differences Input Data Top Down
30. Methodological Differences Input Data Bottom Up
31. • 6 categories • 18 groups • 62 types
38. • 15 Groups • 66 Types • 450 input variables http://publ.com/RUfDTGu
45. OAC
46. 1: Blue Collar Communities 1a: Terraced Blue Collar 1b: Younger Blue Collar 1c: Older Blue Collar 2: City Living 2a: Transient Communities 2b: Settled in the City 3: Countryside 3a: Village Life 3b: Agricultural 3c: Accessible Countryside 4: Prospering Suburbs 4a: Prospering Younger Families 4b: Prospering Older Families 4c: Prospering Semis 4d: Thriving Suburbs 5: Constrained by Circumstances 5a: Senior Communities 5b: Older Workers 5c: Public Housing 6: Typical Traits 6a: Settled Households 6b: Least Divergent 6c: Young Families in Terraced Homes 6d: Aspiring Households 7: Multicultural 7a: Asian Communities 7b: Afro-Caribbean Communities
47. Constrained by Circumstances
49. New American Atlas
50. Input Variables Concept Domain Measures Population Age Population bands Race Racial categories Education High school graduate, college degree, professional degree Family Structure Same sex couples, married couples, single females with children Language Only speak English, Spanish (with good English), Spanish (with poor English) Environment Stability Moved house within a year (within municipality), Moved house within a year (outside of municipal- ity) Housing vacant houses, house type (detached, attached, apartments etc), building age, housing value, rented units, rental price Density Total population per area Commuting Duration (e.g. 25-29 minutes), commuting by pub- lic transport Economy Occupation Types of employment (e.g. agriculture, retail etc) Wealth Food stamps, retirement income, income equality, income bands (e.g. $24-29k) http://www.census.gov/acs/www/ Scale: SAE - Census Tract (1.2k and 8k people, optimum size of 4,000 people)
51. Technical Details • % scores and ratio • Range (0-1) standardisation • K-means (250 clusters) • Wards - 10, 55 cluster solution
52. Technical Details • How well each object fits within a cluster 0.00 0.05 0.10 0 50 100 150 200 250 Number of Classes Silhouette Rousseeuw, P.J. (1987). "Silhouettes: a Graphical Aid to the Interpretation and Validation of Cluster Analysis". Computational and Applied Mathematics 20: 53–65
53. Technical Details
55. A: Hispanic and Kids B: Wealthy Nuclear Families C: Middle income, single family homes D: Native American E: Wealthy Urbanites F: Low Income and Diverse G: Old, Wealthy White H: Low Income Minority Mix I: African−American Adversity J: Residential Institutions, Young People A: Hispanic and Kids B: Wealthy Nuclear Families C: Middle income, single family homes D: Native American E: Wealthy Urbanites F: Low Income and Diverse G: Old, Wealthy White H: Low Income Minority Mix I: African−American Adversity J: Residential Institutions, Young People
56. 230 49 94 135 70 105 54 145 174 72 100 73 121 119 48 98 79 110 124 76 83 101 108 111 69 110 96 85 94 92 50 152 76 53 184 94 140 83 41 129 34 165 65 43 240 81 174 75 34 184 A B C D E F G H I J Less Than High School High School Some College Assoc. Degree Bachelor Degree Grad. or Prof. Degree 50 100 150 200 A: Hispanic and Kids B: Wealthy Nuclear Families C: Middle Income, Single Family Homes D: Native American E: Wealthy Urbanites F: Low Income and Diverse G: Old, Wealthy White H: Low Income Minority Mix I: Poor, African-American J: Res. Instit., Young People" Groups Index Score Education
57. 50 100 150 200 A: Hispanic and Kids B: Wealthy Nuclear Families C: Middle Income, Single Family Homes D: Native American E: Wealthy Urbanites F: Low Income and Diverse G: Old, Wealthy White H: Low Income Minority Mix I: Poor, African-American J: Res. Instit., Young People" Groups Index Score Family Structure 117 62 94 131 111 140 79 161 240 121 94 122 105 90 50 71 97 72 49 64 82 108 75 32 429 109 190 87 61 97 81 111 96 55 157 111 110 85 61 115 A B C D E F G H I J Single Moms Married Couples Male−Male Couples Female−Female Couples
58. 50 100 150 200 A: Hispanic and Kids B: Wealthy Nuclear Families C: Middle Income, Single Family Homes D: Native American E: Wealthy Urbanites F: Low Income and Diverse G: Old, Wealthy White H: Low Income Minority Mix I: Poor, African-American J: Res. Instit., Young People" Groups Index Score Occupation 133 42 165 317 18 61 40 9 49 49 160 89 107 117 44 93 82 79 69 53 107 90 121 65 50 74 63 54 114 57 120 113 96 51 74 85 104 85 77 55 103 92 107 82 74 110 97 91 100 109 111 87 109 98 54 99 77 148 110 49 71 127 80 46 239 101 117 108 72 97 69 132 83 50 148 94 158 114 64 68 96 129 75 42 179 103 134 101 82 77 77 100 99 121 106 95 103 121 116 156 118 85 90 123 128 144 101 100 134 165 121 93 99 77 93 100 100 116 105 85 70 109 102 223 86 112 89 109 91 63 55 134 88 86 158 89 135 84 59 106 129 75 97 124 86 122 80 140 160 129 94 102 100 84 87 105 108 104 95 107 162 74 119 143 36 93 62 74 78 56 142 62 122 100 41 94 52 95 149 63 A B C D E F G H I J Agriculture and Nat. Resources Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transport, Warehousing, Utilities Information Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Prof. Scientific, Mgmt. Admin. Education, Health Social Services Arts, Entertainment, Food Other Services Public Administration Mgmt. Business, Science, Arts Service Sales And Office Nat'l Resources, Construction, Maint. Production, Transport
59. 50 100 150 200 A: Hispanic and Kids B: Wealthy Nuclear Families C: Middle Income, Single Family Homes D: Native American E: Wealthy Urbanites F: Low Income and Diverse G: Old, Wealthy White H: Low Income Minority Mix I: Poor, African-American J: Res. Instit., Young People" Groups Index Score Language / Race 52 98 115 95 91 97 105 79 115 108 403 89 39 29 97 107 52 140 42 43 425 96 32 19 84 103 40 127 41 28 A B C D E F G H I J Speak Only English Speak Spanish Speak Spanish Low English 84 108 115 50 92 83 116 46 38 102 77 46 70 18 95 181 48 312 485 95 102 48 82 5995 59 110 37 38 50 82 90 187 31 17 223 101 96 234 25 133 379 68 44 40 95 110 52 132 41 49 322 88 39 22 184 146 79 196 43 88 A B C D E F G H I J White Black American Indian Asian Hispanic Latino Not A Citizen
60. 50 100 150 200 A: Hispanic and Kids B: Wealthy Nuclear Families C: Middle Income, Single Family Homes D: Native American E: Wealthy Urbanites F: Low Income and Diverse G: Old, Wealthy White H: Low Income Minority Mix I: Poor, African-American J: Res. Instit., Young People" Groups Index Score Mobility 134 41 45 112 493 106 99 549 233 142 118 71 23 15 479 84 117 764 153 90 83 77 118 183 87 111 100 40 113 200 94 87 109 104 94 116 100 52 120 149 102 93 104 82 96 117 97 62 122 106 105 102 100 68 102 106 100 77 106 73 94 112 101 57 100 97 100 71 84 60 123 109 88 80 115 94 97 126 93 56 85 126 93 60 110 78 106 104 69 49 99 132 82 61 125 73 106 154 57 51 98 123 85 77 113 73 102 186 70 50 113 120 74 82 101 69 104 299 70 48 111 105 88 114 75 75 109 251 83 56 A B C D E F G H I J No Car Public Transport Commute 5−9 Mins. Commute 10−14 Mins. Commute 15−19 Mins. Commute 20−24 Mins. Commute 25−29 Mins. Commute 30−34 Mins. Commute 35−39 Mins. Commute 40−44 Mins. Commute 45−59 Mins. Commute 60−89 Mins. Commute 90+ Mins.
61. 50 100 150 200 A: Hispanic and Kids B: Wealthy Nuclear Families C: Middle Income, Single Family Homes D: Native American E: Wealthy Urbanites F: Low Income and Diverse G: Old, Wealthy White H: Low Income Minority Mix I: Poor, African-American J: Res. Instit., Young People" Groups Index Score Occupation 133 42 165 317 18 61 40 9 49 49 160 89 107 117 44 93 82 79 69 53 107 90 121 65 50 74 63 54 114 57 120 113 96 51 74 85 104 85 77 55 103 92 107 82 74 110 97 91 100 109 111 87 109 98 54 99 77 148 110 49 71 127 80 46 239 101 117 108 72 97 69 132 83 50 148 94 158 114 64 68 96 129 75 42 179 103 134 101 82 77 77 100 99 121 106 95 103 121 116 156 118 85 90 123 128 144 101 100 134 165 121 93 99 77 93 100 100 116 105 85 70 109 102 223 86 112 89 109 91 63 55 134 88 86 158 89 135 84 59 106 129 75 97 124 86 122 80 140 160 129 94 102 100 84 87 105 108 104 95 107 162 74 119 143 36 93 62 74 78 56 142 62 122 100 41 94 52 95 149 63 A B C D E F G H I J Agriculture and Nat. Resources Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transport, Warehousing, Utilities Information Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Prof. Scientific, Mgmt. Admin. Education, Health Social Services Arts, Entertainment, Food Other Services Public Administration Mgmt. Business, Science, Arts Service Sales And Office Nat'l Resources, Construction, Maint. Production, Transport
62. 50 100 150 200 A: Hispanic and Kids B: Wealthy Nuclear Families C: Middle Income, Single Family Homes D: Native American E: Wealthy Urbanites F: Low Income and Diverse G: Old, Wealthy White H: Low Income Minority Mix I: Poor, African-American J: Res. Instit., Young People" Groups Index Score Wealth 99 96 98 107 113 101 111 106 113 118 117 57 89 173 149 120 77 154 268 220 131 54 106 139 104 115 91 118 211 150 132 57 109 134 87 119 92 112 175 131 131 60 111 128 85 125 92 104 154 122 131 63 112 125 82 128 92 102 137 107 126 67 113 117 80 131 90 102 118 99 121 70 114 109 80 127 89 99 107 93 115 77 114 103 85 122 91 97 92 88 114 80 115 105 83 114 93 93 85 84 106 87 114 99 84 108 91 95 73 78 97 99 111 88 85 98 93 92 59 75 82 120 104 78 88 83 95 90 43 70 68 149 88 63 98 68 109 88 29 65 56 175 73 51 107 57 117 91 23 68 44 199 58 41 135 48 138 87 16 69 26 219 42 25 202 35 202 58 12 79 156 47 97 184 76 115 42 177 285 94 65 100 117 88 42 71 163 79 90 74 A B C D E F G H I J Income Gini < $10K $10K−$14K $15K−$20K $20K−$25K $25K−$30K $30K−$35K $35K−$40K $40K−$45K $45K−$50K $50K−$60K $60K−$75K $75K−$100K $100K−$125K $125K−$150K $150K−$200K $200K+ Public Assistance Retirement Income
63. http://newamericanatlas.com
64. London Output Area Classification
65. OAC 2001 A:Intermediate Lifestyles B:High Density and High Rise Flats C:Settled Asians D:Urban Elites E:City Vibe F:London Life−Cycle G:Multi−Ethnic Suburbs H:Aging City Fringe LOAC 2011
66. Input Data Domain Sub Domain! Variables Demographic Age Structure Age bands Family Structure Marriage; children; dependant children; Ethnicity Ethnic Groups; Spoken English; EU V New EU Housing Composition Density; communal establishment; student household; occupancy rating Type Detached, semi, terrace, flats Tennure Socially rented; private rented; owned or shared ownership Socio-Economic! Health Day-to-day activities limited a lot or a little; standardised illness ratio Employment Unemployment; full time; part time Occupation Occupation groups Education Level 1; Level 2; Level 3; Level 4+ Mobility Car ownership; private transport; public transport; active transport Mirrors 2011 Output Area Classification input data 60 Variables
67. Technical Details • % scores and ratio • Inverse hyperbolic sine • Range (0-1) standardisation • K-means (8, 21) - top down
68. A:Intermediate Lifestyles B:High Density and High Rise Flats C:Settled Asians D:Urban Elites E:City Vibe F:London Life−Cycle G:Multi−Ethnic Suburbs H:Aging City Fringe
69. A: Intermediate Lifestyles E00007298; Perry Mead, Enfield! Groups A1: Struggling suburbs A2: Suburban localities • Later stages in life-cycle • White and born in the UK • Few dependent children • Most live in single family terraced or semi detached properties. • Higher social rented. • Average employment in full and part time intermediate occupations. • Lower levels of highest qualifications
70. B: High Density and High Rise Flats E00009768; Lancaster Court, Fulham! Groups B1 Disadvantaged diaspora B2 Bangladeshi enclaves • Densely populated areas of flats.! • Families have children of school age ! • Many residents Bangladeshi origins! • High Black residents or Mixed or Other ethnic groups.! • Higher spoken language is not English. ! • Qualifications are below the London average! • Some residents are full-time students living in shared accommodation.! • Levels of unemployment and part- time working high! • Employment more typically in administration, or in accommodation and food services industries.
71. C: Settled Asians E00013190; Catherine Gardens, Hounslow! Groups C1 Asian owner occupiers C2 Transport service workers C3 East End Asians C4 Elderly Asians • Traditional single-family houses! • Above average numbers of which are owner-occupied. ! • Full age range ! • Main language spoken in many households is not English. ! • Occupations drawn from a wide range of non- professional sectors. Many of Asian origins, although many are second or subsequent generation British residents.
72. D: Urban Elites E00009327; Stoner Road, West Kensington! Groups D1 Educational advantage D2 City central • Young professionals! • Working in the science, technology, finance and insurance sectors. Large numbers of students ! • Many privately owned flats! • Residents are disproportionately drawn from pre 2001 EU countries,! • High of Chinese, Arab and other minority backgrounds. !
73. E: City Vibe E00009228; Netherwood Road, Shepherds Bush! Groups E1 City and student fringe E2 Graduation occupation • Many young, single professionals ! • Mostly living in Zone 2 ! • Few individuals originate from the Indian sub-continent! • Mixed ethnic groups are well represented, as are migrants from pre 2001 EU countries.! • Large number student households ! • Individuals rent within the private sector! • Well qualified! • Employed in a range of professional, scientific and technical occupations.
74. F: London Life-Cycle E00017504; Trinity Road, Wimbledon! Groups F1 City enclaves F2 Affluent suburbs • Predominantly White in ethnic composition (including individuals from other pre 2001 EU countries)! • Households cover the full family life-cycle ! • Residents are highly qualified! • Employment rates are high ! • Employment is concentrated in the technical, scientific, finance, insurance and real estate industries.
75. G: Multi-Ethnic Suburbs E00022299; Crescent Road, Leyton! Groups G1 Affordable transitions G2 Public sector and service employees • Wide range of non-White ethnic groups • EU post 2001 are well represented. • Young children or children of school age, • Low over 65s • Family housing in overcrowded terraces, • social housing sector. • unemployment are high. • Employment blue collar occupations.
76. H: Aging City Fringe E00005585; Peacock Gardens, South Croydon! Groups H1 Detached retirement H2 Not quite Home Counties • Many residents 45+ ! • Many above state pensionable age. ! • High levels of marriage! • Mainly white! • Much of the dwelling stock semi- detached and detached houses! • Levels of qualifications are low! • Private vehicle ownership is high! • Levels of unemployment are very low and drawn from a range of sectors
78. Using Geodemographics • Descriptives • Within regression models • Covariates • Levels (mlm) • Within spatial interaction models Singleton, A. and Spielman, S. (2013). The Past, Present and Future of Geodemographic Research in the United States and United Kingdom. Professional Geographer, In Press.
79. Using Geodemographics Singleton, A. and Spielman, S. (2013). The Past, Present and Future of Geodemographic Research in the United States and United Kingdom. Professional Geographer, In Press.
80. Who goes to university? Prospering Suburbs Countryside Aspiring Households 1 & 2 Asian Communities 3 Key WP Groups Blue Collar Communities Constrained by Circumstances
81. Music Degree
82. Physical Geography
83. http://www.ox.ac.uk/media/news_releases_for_journalists/120131.html
84. Travel to university
85. Future Geodemographics • Social media • Names • Geographical context • Temporal - flows • Workplace geodemographics • Supply and demand