Grain Foods Foundation

Transcript

1. elevate markets, accelerate results |
   BEMA
   General Meeting
   February 25, 2018
   

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2. elevate markets, accelerate results |
   

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4. elevate markets, accelerate results |
   SAMPLE TELEVISION
   

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5. MEDIA
   COVERAGE
   released October 23, 2017
   Total
   Potential
   Audience
   83,150,453
   Total
   Pickups
   250
   

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6. elevate markets, accelerate results |
   Checkoff Feasibility Update
   

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7. elevate markets, accelerate results |
   Commercial Bread Unit Sales
   per Capita Index
   80
   85
   90
   95
   100
   105
   110
   2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
   Unit Sales per Capita Index
   (2016 = 100 and in 2016 $’s)
   2016 Constant Unit per Capita Sales Trend Unit per Capita Sales Forecast
   Source: IRI and US Census
   Projection based on past 5 years and US Census Population estimates
   -1.5% / year
   $12.4 Billion
   at risk
   

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8. elevate markets, accelerate results |
   Market Trends
   Wheat Flour Use (Disappearance) Per Capita Index
   80
   85
   90
   95
   100
   105
   110
   Unit Sales per Capita Index (2016 = 100 and in 2016 $’s)
   2016 Constant Unit per Capita Sales Trend 4 Yr. Trend 3 Yr. Trend 2 Yr. Trend
   Source: USDA Wheat Yearbook Table 29 and US Census
   * Wheat Flour Wholesale of $15 cwt per Table 32
   Projection based on past years and US Census Population estimates
   $1.3-3.2 Billion in Revenue at Risk for Millers
   4yrs.
   3yrs.
   2yrs.
   Forecast
   using
   last
   Scenario CAGR
   Avg. Yr.
   1,000 CWT
   10 years vs.
   constant/cap
   ita (1,000
   cwt)
   Millers 10 yr.
   potential
   revenue loss*
   Constant ’16 444,128 NC NC
   Last 4 Yrs. -.41% 435,337 -87,909 -$1,318,637
   Last 3 Yrs. -.71% 428,032 -160,959 -$2,414,389
   Last 2 Yrs. -.94% 422,711 -214,174 -$3,212,606
   

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9. elevate markets, accelerate results |
   • A Threat is Looming and Industry Must Coalesce
   ‐ The Industry is Declining with multiple causes
   • Bread products are foundational product in most severe
   decline
   ‐ Creativity, Education, Innovation Lacking in Industry
   • GFF current program support is firm but, a recognition
   that it is not enough
   • Need Bigger Industry Commitment to Turn the Ship
   ‐ We are Jockeying for Share of Shrinking Pie -- Instead of
   Growing the Pie
   Stakeholder Assessment
   Source: 2013 GFF interviews, and 2017 Statler Nagle interviews; combined over
   65 interviews/35 organizations
   

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10. elevate markets, accelerate results |
    What Action Has Been Taken?
    • GFF:
    ‐ Restructuring activities to maintain current programming while
    checkoff feasibility is assessed
    ‐ Staffing increases
    ‐ Funding three research projects
    • Checkoff Feasibility Project:
    ‐ Steering Committee formation
    ‐ Engaging the direct funders and other stakeholders in a
    transparent process
    ‐ Initial meeting January 10; Second meeting March 13
    

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11. elevate markets, accelerate results |
    What to Expect in the Coming Months
    A Deliberative Process
    • Steering Committee Will:
    ‐ Integrate research and analytic findings
    ‐ Construct an ROI model to help define the parameters of funding,
    governance, and strategy
    ‐ Build the architecture of a marketing framework
    ‐ Conduct innovation assessment to determine if a checkoff could
    substantially improve rate and quality of Industry innovation
    

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12. elevate markets, accelerate results |
    What to Expect in the Coming Months
    Up to now, this is an idea…
    No decision will be made until after AFTER the Steering Committee
    assesses three classes of questions AND determines if there is support
    among companies to be assessed.
    1. The Money Questions:
    ‐ Projected annual assessment necessary to influence sales
    ‐ Product mix to be assessed
    ‐ Level of assessment across the product mix
    2. Market Sizing Questions:
    ‐ Are there exemptions? If so, what?
    ‐ How are imports/exports treated?
    3. Governance:
    ‐ Board representation and nomination process
    ‐ Referendum voting and timing requirements
    

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13. elevate markets, accelerate results |
    What to Expect in the Coming Months
    Timeline of Key Decisions in Checkoff Decision
    2017 2018
    Q2-Q3
    Final Checkoff Feasibility
    Report Delivered
    GFF BOARD/
    STEERING
    COMMITTEE
    DECISION
    September 19
    GFF Board
    Initiates
    Checkoff Feasibility
    Report
    February
    Consumer/Customer
    Research Completed
    October 11
    Task Forces Meet
    & Launch Research
    Projects
    January 10
    Steering Committee
    Meeting
    March 13
    Steering Committee
    Meeting
    

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14. elevate markets, accelerate results |
    Got Questions?
    

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