Sponsored by BIG ESIGN Designing for Timeless Needs— A Futurist Approach Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir June 10, 2020 Munich Wellington Budapest Brisbane Manila Beijing Bangkok Kuala Lumpur Nairobi Athens Casablanca Buenos Aires New York Washington, DC Dallas Calgary Las Vegas San Francisco Seoul 24 HOURS OF UX
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 Meet your presenters Designer of conversations, curricula, and interfaces 2 Cassini Nazir Researcher, ethnographer, and futurist Mike Courtney Founder and CEO, Aperio Insights Clinical Assoc. Professor, University of North Texas linkedin.com/in/cassininazir [email protected] linkedin.com/in/mikecourtney [email protected]
Futurists help us discover possible and likely future(s). Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project It’s not palm readings. It’s not a crystal ball. Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 While at Nokia in the 1990s, Mike Courtney and his research team studied a radical idea. +
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 + NOT INTERESTED While at Nokia in the 1990s, Mike Courtney and his research team studied a radical idea.
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 Driving forces of change Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Voice- to Data-networks Faster chip sets Longer battery life Device miniaturization
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 Timeless need = capturing emotions 9 Having a camera on your cellular phone is helpful when your child does something important.
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 THOUGHTS ACTION THINGS SYMBOLS Logos, signs Tools, objects Interactions, services Ecosystems, platforms Problems of Communication Problems of Construction Problems of Action Problems of Integration Participation Interaction Interface Transaction 4 3 2 1 HIGH LOW ARTIFACTS TRANSFORMATIONS COMPLEXITY EXPERIENCES Buchanan, R. (2001) Design research and the new learning. Design Issues, 17(4), 3–23 The field of design is changing. Buchanan’s four orders of design (2001) demonstrates the field’s past and possible futures.
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 THOUGHTS ACTION THINGS SYMBOLS Logos, signs Tools, objects Interactions, services Ecosystems, platforms Problems of Communication Problems of Construction Problems of Action Problems of Integration Participation Interaction Interface Transaction 4 3 2 1 20th century design FROM Making the complex manageable; Rendering the complicated meaningful. Simplicity of form, function, materials, and manner. TO 21st century design Buchanan, R. (2001) Design research and the new learning. Design Issues, 17(4), 3–23 Design of systems increasingly complex <
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 The diffusion and adoption of technology is accelerating. 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 Auto Telephone Electricity Refrigerator Stove Radio Clothes dryer Air condi- tioning Color TV Clothes Washer Dish- Washer Microwave Cellphone Internet VCR Computer Social Media Tablet 1900 Slow diffusion Gradual adoption Faster diffusion Faster adoption 20 40 60 80 100% Percent of US households Source Michael Felton, The New York Times 14 A shift with TV
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 Auto Telephone Electricity Refrigerator Stove Radio Clothes dryer Air condi- tioning Color TV Clothes Washer Dish- Washer Microwave Cellphone Internet VCR Computer Social Media Tablet 1900 20 40 60 80 100% Percent of US households Source Michael Felton, The New York Times 15 Today, new tech is poised on the horizon of widespread adoption. Could you leave your product unchanged for 2 years and not have to worry? Gesture Control Biometrics Gaze Control Virtual Reality Brain-Computer Interfaces Augmented Reality
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 Auto 1900 20 40 60 80 100% Percent of US households Source Michael Felton, The New York Times 16 Internet 50 years for auto to go from 10% to 80% of US households 10 years Designers have to get better at anticipating changes. There is a field of study for just that thing…
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 Anticipating the future requires a shift to systems thinking. Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Systems thinking Linear thinking Action causes a predictable reaction Action causes a first- and second-order reaction(s)
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 Dator’s four archetypes of change presents patterns of possibilities. Continuation Collapse Transformation New Equilibrium Transform Discipline Decline Growth The system stays stable along its current trajectory despite change happening around it. The system falls apart under the weight of negative forces, but effects may carry forward. The primary system gets disrupted, forcing a new normal. The former system is discarded in favor of a new structure with a new set of rules. Dator, J. (1979). The futures of culture or cultures of the future. In Perspectives in Cross-Cultural Psychology, (369-388). Model adapted from the Extrapolation Factory
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 Continuation The system stays stable along its current trajectory despite change happening around it Often called the “no change” future This future speculates what would happen if outside change did not affect it Least likely option Because change is always happening around us, the Continuation Pattern is usually the least likely scenario Comfortable but unreliable plans Strategic plans based on the Continuation Pattern are very comforting because we believe what happened yesterday will happen today and tomorrow. However, plans that assume nothing will change can be blindsided when change almost inevitably occurs Spiritual Rituals Many of the major world religions have practices and rituals (confession, prayer, washing, festivals, etc.) that remain basically the same despite changes around them Trading Time for Money For most people in developed economies, those of the working class spend much of their lives trading time for money. The type of work may be changing, but the system of trading time for money has not Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Key points Examples Dator, J. (1979). The futures of culture or cultures of the future. In Perspectives in Cross-Cultural Psychology, (369-388). Model adapted from the Extrapolation Factory
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 Collapse The system falls apart under the weight of negative or opposing forces. Bursting the Bubble Though not always, the Collapse Pattern can often happen suddenly, causing major system breakdowns. Usually this sudden crash happens when people are assuming the Continuation Pattern and ignoring early signs of Collapse Not Always a Bad Thing It is easy to think of this pattern as always negative, but it is important to remember that there are times when the Collapse Pattern is a best-case scenario, like when unjust political systems implode, or a concerted effort contains and eradicates a disease like smallpox Fall of the Third Reich Collapse of Film Cameras The digital camera was initially invented by Kodak, but because it was expensive to use for storing images, it was initially shelved. By 2002, miniaturization and other technologies had already put small cameras in phones, not only collapsing the film camera industry but also the digital point-and-shoot devices Key points Examples Dator, J. (1979). The futures of culture or cultures of the future. In Perspectives in Cross-Cultural Psychology, (369-388). Model adapted from the Extrapolation Factory
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 Transformation The old way of doing things is discarded in favor of a new way with a new set of rules Transformational Innovation Often transformation happens when a new process or technology allows people to do things through a better medium. This intersection of a timeless need and new solution can force transformation within a system The Former Things Pass Away The primary difference between a Transformation Pattern and the New Equilibrium is that Equilibrium keeps the same basic structures or systems intact, while Transformation forces the former system to go away, moving from mainstream to niche and artisanal Digital Comm. and the Internet For much of human history, long-distance communication was accomplished by hand crafted letters delivered by people. With the invention of the Internet, communication can happen to nearly any part of the globe, nearly instantaneously. Letter writing has become novel, when it used to be mainstream Horseless Buggy Henry Ford famously said, “if I’d asked the public what they wanted, they would have asked for a faster horse.” The auto has fully transformed transportation, city planning, logistics, and trade. Horse riding has moved to a niche hobby Key points Examples Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Dator, J. (1979). The futures of culture or cultures of the future. In Perspectives in Cross-Cultural Psychology, (369-388). Model adapted from the Extrapolation Factory
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 New Equilibrium The primary way of doing things gets disrupted, forcing a new normal Chaotic Beginnings When a system begins to experiencing this “outside change”, the first reaction is usually very chaotic. People don’t know how to react, making the outcome uncertain New Stability If a system undergoes the New Equilibrium Pattern, there is disruption which usually reveals vulnerability in the system. This instability brings opportunities for profit and innovation, for building resilience, and for self-evaluation Post 9/11 Airport Security After the 9/11 attacks in New York, there was a time of great instability in the airport industry. Systems began changing rapidly and asynchronously. New technologies and products came to market, new jobs created and many profited. Now, nearly 20 years later, global airport security measures have fundamentally shifted but have mostly settled into a new, stable rhythm Tylenol Tampering After several instances of medication tampering, some thought we would never be able to trust medicine on the shelves. However, the advent of tamper-proof or tamper-evident seals restored consumer confidence in off-the-shelf medication Key points Examples Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Dator, J. (1979). The futures of culture or cultures of the future. In Perspectives in Cross-Cultural Psychology, (369-388). Model adapted from the Extrapolation Factory
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 Despite the pattern of change, timeless needs will carry forward. Continuation Collapse Transformation New Equilibrium Model adapted from the Extrapolation Factory Transform Discipline Decline Growth Timeless Needs The system stays stable along its current trajectory despite change happening around it. The system falls apart under the weight of negative forces, but effects may carry forward. The primary system gets disrupted, forcing a new normal. The former system is discarded in favor of a new structure with a new set of rules.
Timeless needs are things done in the past, things being done now, and things will that continue in the future. Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 25
Timeless needs are things done in the past, things being done now, and things will that continue in the future. Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 26
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 Needs vs Wants 27 We define needs not as “things can’t live without” but defined as “things we instinctively and naturally gravitate toward.” These needs impact, influence, or drive behavior—even if we wouldn’t die without it. There are a variety of category types of needs: physical, social, mental, personal, individual, contextual, etc.
Not based upon time, technology or culture. Our values and behaviors change, shaped by consumer demands and desires. But the underlying human needs is constant. Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 Characteristics of timeless needs 28 Requires thinking in longer time horizons. Connects quarterly product roadmaps to needs that are more than 3-5 years out or more than x number of sprints/iterations. Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Frees us from thinking in terms of current technology. If we separate the need from the tech, we can be open to new ways of satisfying the need. Complements Maslow’s Hierarchy and Brand’s Pace Layers. Needs can be foregrounded (critical or important right now) or backgrounded (not important now, or forgotten, overlooked). Is a foundation for personas and products. Regardless of persona, job-to-be-done, product, or sector the need is the driving force propelling behavior. Only limit is our imagination: Needs can be fine grain or high-level, depending on context, industry, and a variety of factors. Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project
When conducting any type of research. Discovering patterns in history, users, and needs can be helpful for anyone. For designers involved in strategy or innovation. This requires connecting themes and some level of future-forecasting. When anticipating how products/services might change over time longer horizons. Timeless needs help connect present desires to future ones. Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 29 For design roles focused on incremental change. There are some roles heavily focused on near-term implementation. If not built upon research. If you’re not looking at users, context, and history, you’re probably not finding timeless needs. More useful… Less useful…. When to use timeless needs
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 Let’s play Is It a Timeless Need? 30 Change temperature Client /product Thermostat Dating app Swiping left/right Wheelchair Using wheelchair in old age Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Is it a timeless need? Travel vendor Book a hotel
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 Let’s play Is It a Timeless Need? 31 Change temperature Physical comfort Client /product Thermostat Timeless needs are not the interface. Dating app Swiping left/right Make a connection with others Wheelchair Using wheelchair in old age Mobility and independence Needs are not device or time dependent. Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Is it a timeless need? Actual timeless need(s) Shift from focusing on interface to need(s). Travel vendor Book a hotel Be aware of options Make choices that fit my prefs There can be multiple timeless needs.
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 The Foresight Process 32 • Conduct workshop to understand rationale and purpose of project • Set objectives and develop initial hypothesis • Clarify and flesh out list of topics to be covered • Understand earlier data and existing reports • Map the system and gather information and trends (hard vs. soft) • Conduct interviews with industry experts and thought leaders • Synthesize and explore context • Identify drivers (tech, culture, business model, etc.) • Explore & extrapolate baseline vs. alternative assumptions • Prioritize by importance and likelihood • Create watch list of potential signals of change • Create and explore future vision and multiple scenarios • Develop understanding of what the organizational implications of the future scenarios would be • Challenge assumptions and define the ideal path • Identify hypothesis and develop stimulus materials to test consumer response Frame & Define Topic Scan & Identify Trends Forecast Baseline vs Alternative Vision & Scenarios
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 When crafting scenarios… Don’t define the problem in terms of the technology or the interface. The only thing you will solve is the tech/interface. The solution and its benefits describe how it’s used among a set of future conditions. Captures aspirations, filtered by reality. Built with a creative, iterative and agile process. Move in challenging directions, even if exact roadmap is not yet clear. Often involve technologies just beyond today’s capabilities. A scenario is a descriptive, narrative story that paints a vision of the future that describes a customer experience in terms of an underlying problem or timeless need they have today.
CONFIDENTIAL Communicate to and from the Car TIMELESS NEED In the Past… • In the past we communicated by honking the horn, flashing hand gestures or lights • We’d roll down the window and shout, use CB radios or mobile phones, etc. In the Present… • Car syncs to mobile phone, allowing access to contacts • In-car systems connect to phones, allowing calls to be made Near Future • Cars have built-in communication systems and acts as personal assistant to filter calls and messages • The car filters information based on what the driver can handle—so if the driver is busy the car holds back information until the time is right • Car can send and receive messages and data to nearby vehicles simply based on proximity Future • Virtual “bumper stickers” allow passengers to send messages outside their vehicle • Vehicles have built in two-way video, with unique video streams for each occupant • Sound pod spaces allow private or intimate conversations while in shared rides • Vehicles continuously share data among each other to identify hazards and optimize occupant experiences 34
“ …clean, sanitary and free of offensive odors Past Present Near Future Future Clean & Odor-Free TIMELESS NEED EXAMPLE • Manual chemical cleaners • Localized spray air fresheners • CFCs contributing to the hole in the ozone layer • Harsh chemicals were ok, as long as they kept a place sanitary • Some ambient odor fighting (plug-ins) • Rise of stain resistance • Harsh chemical cleaners give some way to "natural" cleaners • Expansion of aromatherapy adds to "ambient" odor • Odor-capturing/neutralizing products expand • Fresh Step litter and Diaper Genie products • Roomba leads as robo-cleaner (weak signal) • Stain resistance become integrated • More robo-cleaners • Rise of self-cleaning • Stain resistance becomes active • Smells become integrated into the system • High-tech smell detection alerts consumer of a cleanliness or odor issue • Smell detection and systematic response becomes automatic and intuitive • Self-cleaning/anti- microbial surfaces advance to water-only cleaning • Light/Heat-cleaning or UV disinfectant (localized) emerge as options
Unmet Need • Active families with young kids and pets may have spills and accidents that go unnoticed • People want to know if there is a spill or accident so it can be quickly cleaned • It’s easy to slip on surfaces when you don’t immediately notice it’s wet • It’s easy to miss a spot when you’re mopping the floor • 52% of consumers say “cleaning ease” is of top importance for flooring Potential Solution • Flooring has phosphorescent coating • Upon contact with spills and liquids, the coating changes color to indicate the presence of liquid • Advanced versions may integrate with cameras or other sensors to detect the changing color to send a notification Benefits • Easier detection of spills and pet accidents • Faster clean up helps reduce stains and odors, especially on carpets • Reduces “Ewww” of accidental discoveries (many of us have experienced coming upon a spill or accident that we weren’t aware of) The Modern Family Modern families, who are constantly busy and on-the-go, may not notice when a spill happens Material Breakthroughs The materials used in the bioluminescent coating will transform traditional flooring into an exciting new product High-Tech Flooring Advanced versions of this flooring may be able to be integrated with sensors to send a notification if a spill or accident occurs Inspiration Liquid Spotlight A bioluminescent coating that reacts upon contact with spills or pet accidents by changing color to indicate the area that’s wet and needs cleaning TIMELESS NEED – CLEAN & ODOR-FREE Driving Forces 1 85 million families in the US own a pet (67% of households) Phosphorescent film breakthrough has been developed into a finish layer (or spray) Unmet Need • Active families with young kids and pets may have spills and accidents that go unnoticed • People want to know if there is a spill or accident so it can be quickly cleaned • It’s easy to slip on surfaces when you don’t immediately notice it’s wet • It’s easy to miss a spot when you’re mopping the floor • 52% of consumers say “cleaning ease” is of top importance for flooring Potential Solution • Flooring has phosphorescent coating • Upon contact with spills and liquids, the coating changes color to indicate the presence of liquid • Advanced versions may integrate with cameras or other sensors to detect the changing color to send a notification Benefits • Easier detection of spills and pet accidents • Faster clean up helps reduce stains and odors, especially on carpets • Reduces “Ewww” of accidental discoveries (many of us have experienced coming upon a spill or accident that we weren’t aware of) The Modern Family Modern families, who are constantly busy and on-the-go, may not notice when a spill happens Material Breakthroughs The materials used in the bioluminescent coating will transform traditional flooring into an exciting new product High-Tech Flooring Advanced versions of this flooring may be able to be integrated with sensors to send a notification if a spill or accident occurs Inspiration Liquid Spotlight A bioluminescent coating that reacts upon contact with spills or pet accidents by changing color to indicate the area that’s wet and needs cleaning TIMELESS NEED – CLEAN & ODOR-FREE 85 million families in the US own a pet (67% of households) Phosphorescent film breakthrough has been developed into a finish layer (or spray)
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 Loewy’s Most-Advanced, Yet-Acceptable principle is at play. 37 Current Acceptable Too Advanced
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 Similarly, the Overton window shows how policy discourses change. 38 Current Political viewpoint Unthinkable Radical Acceptable Sensible Popular Policy Unthinkable Radical Acceptable Sensible Popular Proposed Likely Opposing political viewpoint In order to get here Propose something here Then land here A B C
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 The Overton window can be applied to design. 39 Current Now Unthinkable Radical Acceptable Sensible Popular Proposed Likely How many true innovations—when they were first designed—would you describe as sensible and not radical? We shouldn’t limit opportunity and innovation only to things that are sensible or acceptable. Most corporate design operates here Speculative designer, futurists, some innovation houses tend to push here
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 Generational cycles are approximately every 20 years. 40 Baby Boomers 1946-1964 Gen X 1965-1982 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Gen Z 2004-? Gen ? Gen Y Millennials 1982-2004 (Census Bureau) (Harvard Center) (Harvard Center) (Strauss and Howe) Silent Gen. until 1945 (Tom Brokaw) 2040
Every generation has cultivates a unique technological imagination that answers the question: What’s possible? Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 41 Baby Boomers 1946-1964 Gen X 1965-1982 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Gen Z 2004-? Gen ? Millennials 1982-2004 Silent Gen. until 1945 2040 1969 - Moon Landing Technological imagination changed
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 But the technology is not the goal. It's meeting timeless needs. 42 Baby Boomers 1946-1964 Gen X 1965-1982 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Gen Z 2004-? Gen ? Millennials 1982-2004 Silent Gen. until 1945 2040 Auto Internet
Mike Courtney and Cassini Nazir · Designing for Timeless Needs : 24 Hours of UX · June 10, 2020 Technology and tools are not needs. The goal is to leverage technology and tools to meet timeless needs. 43 Created by Oleksandr Panasovskyi from the Noun Project Because technology… …moves fast, …is powerful, …is a major element of solutions, we need to look at human needs without the lens of technology, before we imagine how to apply a fresh layer of technology.
• Understanding what drives change gives organizations a roadmap of leverage points. • Foresight allows organizations to implement strategies within the time horizon most likely to amplify impact. Foresight = Advantage
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