Threat mapping approach to wild walnut populations in Central Asia

Transcript

1. Threat mapping approach to wild walnut populations in Central Asia ! Hannes Gaisberger, Bioversity International ! CGIAR Consortium for Spatial Information (CGIAR-CSI) 2014 Annual Meeting, ITC, Enschede, 22-24 September 2014
2. Species distribution modeling (SDM)
3. Occurrence data
4. Biophysical and bioclimatic variables
5. Habitat suitability
6. Expert validation
7. Climate change
8. Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC 2013
9. Predicted rainfall change
10. Habitat suitability prediction till 2050
11. Other threat layers
12. Livestock farming and ranching
13. Landslides
14. Human accessibility
15. Combined threat status
16. Threat ranking Magnitude of threat Climate change (categorical) Livestock farming and ranching (continous) Landslides (categorical) Human accessibility (continuous) Habitat fragmentation (categorical) No threat No change, gain - - - 8 Low - 1-25 6 1-25 6-7 Medium - 25-50 7 25-50 3-5 High - 50-100 8 50-75 0-2 Very high Loss > 1 0 0 9 75-100 • Low” • “Medium” • “High” • “Very High” ! “The combined threat status (of an area=pixel) is never less than the highest individual threat rank”
17. Combined threat status
18. Work in progress: Develop method for (pseudo) ground thruthing a/o expert validation…
19. www.bioversityinternational.org! Thank you ☺