Quis Automatiet Ipsos Automates

Who automates the automators? For a lot of people the future seems uncertain: automation may eat their jobs. Old and new industries are ripe for disruption: transportation, healthcare, education, finance, law and even the culinary industry are being automated as we speak. When chauffeurs and truck drivers fear that they won't be able to hitch a ride into the future, should the automators perhaps wonder... when is it our turn to be automated? Who automates the automators?

Martijn Dashorst takes a look at the future of the programmer: are we also without a job when the last doctor, lawyer, 3-star chef and driver have been automated?

Transcript

1. QUIS AUTOMATIET IPSOS AUTOMATES?
2. MARTIJN DASHORST Martijn Dashorst has been involved with Apache Wicket since it was made open source over ten years ago. He is a proud developer for over 18 years. At Topicus he helps maintain and create Wicket applications for the majority of educational professionals in the Netherlands. Martijn has evangelised Wicket at numerous conferences, including JavaOne, Devoxx
3. TOPICUS
4. THIS IS THE DROID YOU'RE LOOKING FOR!
5. BEFORE I BEGIN...
6. FUTURISTIC BUZZWORD BINGO
7. FUTURISTIC BUZZWORD BINGO
8. WATSON DEEP LEARNING INTERNET
 OF
 THINGS SINGULARITY JEOPARDY STAR TREK
 ECONOMY SELF DRIVING
 CARS JOBLESS
 FUTURE NATURAL
 LANGUAGE
 PROCESSING FUTURISTIC BUZZWORD BINGO
9. WATSON DEEP LEARNING INTERNET
 OF
 THINGS SINGULARITY JEOPARDY STAR TREK
 ECONOMY SELF DRIVING
 CARS JOBLESS
 FUTURE NATURAL
 LANGUAGE
 PROCESSING FUTURISTIC BUZZWORD BINGO DRINKING GAME ☕
10. WHO AUTOMATES THE AUTOMATORS?
11. FOTO: MARKUS SPISKE
12. "IN 5-10 YEARS THERE WILL BE NO MORE PROGRAMMERS: USERS WILL BUILD SOFTWARE THEMSELVES" – MY PROFESSOR IN 1990 FOTO: MARKUS SPISKE
14. WORLD POPULATION AND
 SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT INDEX Abraham Buddha Confucius Jesus 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 100 0 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Mohammed Roman Empire Mongol Empire Ottoman Empire Steam Engine Renaissance source: "The Second Machine Age", Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson
15. "THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION MADE MOCKERY OF ALL THAT HAD GONE BEFORE." –Ian Morris
16. THE FIRST MACHINE AGE AMPLIFIED MUSCLE POWER INFINITELY
17. "Now comes the second machine age. Computers and other digital advances are doing to mental power what the steam engine and its descendants did for muscle power." – McAfee & Brynjolfsson
18. THE SECOND MACHINE AGE
20. "Executing a left turn across oncoming traffic involves so many factors that it is hard to imagine discovering the set of rules that can replicate [a] driver’s behavior." —2004, Levy & Murnane
22. "Conversations critical to effective teaching, managing, selling and many other occupations require the transfer and interpretation of a broad range of information. In these cases, the possibility of exchanging information with a computer, rather than another human, is a long way off" —2004, Levy & Murnane
24. WHY NOW?
25. 3 HORSEMEN OF THE AUTOCALYPSE
26. EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS 1 10 100 1K 10K 100K 1M 10M 100M 1G 1
27. "But just as it took generations to improve the steam engine to the point that it could power the Industrial Revolution, it's also taken time to refine our digital engines."
28. CRAMMING MORE COMPONENTS ONTO INTEGRATED CIRCUITS
 SINCE 1959 "The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year" –Gordon Moore
29. 2015-1958=32 DOUBLINGS
30. WE'RE NOW ENTERING THE SECOND HALF OF THE CHESS BOARD
32. DIGITALISATION OF INFORMATION AND GOODS 2
33. When [these] things are digitised—when they're converted into bits that can be stored on a computer and sent over a network—they acquire some weird and wonderful properties.
34. From local, time limited, resource constrained availability To global, any time, unlimited availability
35. Digitisation is initially expensive, but then the digital properties kick in...
36. Digital goods are subject to different economics, where abundance is the norm rather than scarcity.
39. GLOBAL INTERNET TRAFFIC 2016
40. GLOBAL INTERNET TRAFFIC 2016 1,3ZB
41. RECOMBINATORIAL 
 INNOVATION 3
42. IS INNOVATION DEAD?
44. deep new ideas or techniques that have the potential for important impacts on many sectors of the economy General Purpose Technologies
45. "INNOVATIONS DON'T GET USED UP"
46. The true work of innovation is not coming up with something big and new, but instead recombining things that already exist.
47. GOOGLE CHAUFFEUR
48. GOOGLE CHAUFFEUR IPHONE
49. GOOGLE CHAUFFEUR IPHONE KAHN ACADEMY
50. GOOGLE CHAUFFEUR IPHONE KAHN ACADEMY PCR
51. CASUALTIES OF THE SECOND MACHINE AGE
52. ENABLING 
 SELF SERVICE
57. ROBOTISATION
62. Want to share your Quill Connect report with your followers? The following report is based upon an analysis of your Twitter traffic and the traffic of your recent followers. It was produced by Quill Connect, an application powered by Narrative Science Quill™. Quill Connect examined your tweet history to open a window into your own Twitter performance as well as a picture of what you and your followers are talking about and sharing. Quill examined a total of 12,016 tweets from you and your most recent followers. We can start with your standing in the "Twitterverse" in general. Your Twitter career spans eight years and you tweet more than most of your followers. You tweet 22 tweets a week while your followers average 4 per week. Further, you have 752 followers listening to you, which is very close to all Twitter users. You are in the 94th percentile of Twitter users measured by followers. Your Twitter activity this week You sent out 33 tweets this week, 15 fewer than last week, but above your weekly average. What do you and your followers tweet about? Looking at your history, you're most focused on Business & Technology, Politics, and Science. Tweets in your top topic, Business & Technology, are mostly positive in tone. Your important topics match those most tweeted about by followers who are similar to you. The chart shows the different topic distributions for you, your followers and the most aggressive retweeters among them. What is the sentiment of your tweets? Your tweets don't skew positive or negative and that neutrality puts you right in line with the sentiments of the rest of your followers. (https://quillconnect.narrativescience.com) Martijn Dashorst @dashorst (https://twitter.com/share) (https://twitter.com/share) (https://twitter.com/share) Your most influential new followers These new followers of yours reach a wide audience and are often retweeted. @weird_sci (http://twitter.com/weird_sci) 188,759 followers Popular topic: Science Twitter bio: @SpaceX Engineer & @MIT PhD Tweeting Weird & Wonderful #Science ̣ Author: http://t.co/sdWa5mCX9l ̣ New followers focusing on similar topics Out of your most recent followers, these followers tweet about the same topics as you. @aniketvarma12 (http://twitter.com/aniketvarma12) 51 followers Popular topic: Business Twitter bio: Get Crowdspell, the most amazing wordgame, https://www.narrativescience.com/quill
65. MANUFACTURING JOBS JOURNALISTS LAWYERS TAX PREPARERS DOCTOR'S ASSISTANTS JEOPARDY! PLAYERS TAXI DRIVERS TRUCK CHAUFFEURS DELIVERY GUYS CHEFS TRANSLATORS CEOS
66. CAN WE BE AUTOMATED?
67. 1940'S
68. 1950'S
69. 1957: FORTRAN (FIRST COMPILER)
70. 1959: COBOL
71. 1972: C 1980: C++
72. 1990-: HASKELL, PYTHON, RUBY, JAVA, LUA, PHP
73. http://www.smbc-comics.com/?id=2362
74. http://www.smbc-comics.com/?id=2362
75. http://www.smbc-comics.com/?id=2362
76. http://www.smbc-comics.com/?id=2362
77. http://www.smbc-comics.com/?id=2362
78. http://www.smbc-comics.com/?id=2362
79. http://www.smbc-comics.com/?id=2362
80. http://www.smbc-comics.com/?id=2362
81. FOTO: RAPINVENT
82. FOTO: DIPTANSHU SHARMA
83. WHO WRITES DATABASE QUERIES IN ASSEMBLER?
84. MACHINE CODE → ASSEMBLY → 2ND GEN → 3RD GEN SQL → JDBC → ORM SERVLETS → JSP → JSF CGI → JAVA → JAVA EE → RUBY → NODE CORBA → DCOM/RMI → SOAP → REST HTML → PHP → WORDPRESS → SQUARESPACE MANUAL TESTING → JUNIT → COVERAGE → PITEST
85. HTTPS://XKCD.COM/1319/
86. CAN WE BE AUTOMATED?
87. YES (WE HAVE BEEN DOING SO SINCE THE INVENTION OF COMPUTERS)
88. BUT
89. There is no single development, in either technology or management technique, which by itself promises even one order-of- magnitude improvement within a decade in productivity, in reliability, in simplicity. –Frederick Brooks from: 'No Silver Bullet-Essence and Accident in Software Engineering', 1986
90. Coding is writing text files in foreign languages containing instructions suitable for an absolute idiot to follow. Unlike human readers, computers cannot infer meaning from ambiguous text. –Stephen Nichols from: 'Coding Academies Are Nonsense', 2015
91. WHAT ARE THREATS TO OUR JOB SECURITY?
92. SELF-SERVICE
97. ROBOTISATION
99. +STACKOVERFLOW +GITHUB +AI =?
101. CODE PHAGE
102. QUIS AUTOMATIET IPSOS AUTOMATES?
103. NOS (LIBENTIUS FACIMUS)
104. WE (WILLINGLY)
105. ONE MORE THING
107. I GUESS THEY ARE OCCUPIED...
108. ...FOR NOW!
109. THANK YOU!