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The Road to a Fairly Predictable System

The Road to a Fairly Predictable System

Abstract: I see agile software development methodologies (Scrum and XP) and modern management methods (Kanban) as tools for predictability. The development organisation would like to know what is coming and whether it will be the right thing to do. On the other side, the management would like to know when the new features can hit the market. Both want predictability but in a different way. We are on the road to a fairly predictable system that can accurately tell us what the next right thing to do will be and also when it is going to be ready. In my talk, I'll share my experiences with you, focusing on practices - from portfolio Kanban to risk management - we do to be more predictable.

Zsolt Fabok

April 28, 2014
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  1. Done Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 # ~ 2

    / 3 # ~ 0 / 1 # ~ 1 / 1 # ~ 3 / 3 Week 14 Week 15 now # ~ ~ ~ team blue’s item # ~ ~ ~ team red’s item team yellow’s item # ~ ~ ~ # ~ 4 / 5 # ~ 6 / 6 # ~ 4 / 9 # ~ 4 / 4 # ~ 1 / 2 # ~ 0 / 3 # ~ 0 / 4 # ~ 0 / 5 # ~ 0 / 3 # ~ 1 / 4
  2. Done Week 12 # ~ 3 / 5 Week 11

    Week 13 Week 14 Week 15 portfolio board # ~ 1 / 2 team red’s board Next Design Implementation Review Done # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ 0 / 3 # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~
  3. The changes happen on the team level boards. The portfolio

    boards only provide a different perspective.
  4. releases done # ~ 1 / 10 # ~ 2

    / 5 # ~ 4 / 5 # ~ 2 / 3 # ~ 3 / 3 Experim ental
  5. releases schedule portfolio team Releases Done Done Week 11 Week

    12 Week 13 Week 14 Next Implement Review Done # ~ 2/ 3 # ~ 5 / 7 # ~ 1 / 2 # ~ 4 / 6 # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ depends updates
  6. days 0 3 5 8 10 13 15 1 2

    3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121316 count For example, lead time and WIP distribution for a team on the portfolio level 0 2 5 7 1 2 3 4 count WIP
  7. All the work items we had so far (~20 work

    items) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ v v v v v v v v
  8. Categorizing them into three groups ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

    ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ v v v v v v v v S M L
  9. The lead time distribution ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

    ~ ~ v v v v M 0 1 1 2 3 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 12 13 16 days count
  10. The lead time distribution ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

    ~ ~ v v v v M 0 1 1 2 3 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 12 13 16 SLA days count
  11. The lead time distribution ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

    ~ ~ v v v v M 0 1 1 2 3 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 12 13 16 SLA days count Expired
  12. The spent time distribution ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

    ~ ~ v v v v M 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 hours count
  13. The spent time distribution ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

    ~ ~ v v v v M 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 SLA hours count
  14. If we find anything on any of the boards or

    in any of the measurements, it becomes a risk...
  15. # ~ ~ ~ 8 Done 4 # ~ ~

    ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ 5 2 time impact Ongoing
  16. time impact time impact time impact time impact level 1

    level 2 level 3 level 4 cost of delay: t2 t1 cost of delay(t1) < cost of delay(t2) Based on Jeff Anderson’s cost of delay functions; http://bit.ly/1fiO9bf
  17. # ~ ~ ~ Done # ~ ~ ~ #

    ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ time impact Ongoing # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ priority The Risk Kanban Board
  18. # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~

    ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ time impact Make your worst risk a WIG (widely important goal)
  19. Example Level 2 risk: “team 2 is never on time,

    and that risks the main release at the end of the year.”
  20. WIG: “team 2 will be able to keep his weekly

    commitments by the 3rd quarter.” w31 w32 w33 w34 w35 input (demand) output (throughput) 14 13 13 15 24 15 23 12 17 10 Lag measure w31 w32 w33 w34 w35 items connected to the portfolio board Lead measure
  21. This is a good example, when the lead measure has

    no effect on the lag measure. w31 w32 w33 w34 w35 19 25 23 20 24 15 23 12 17 10 w31 w32 w33 w34 w35
  22. releases schedule portfolio team risks Releases Done Done Week 11

    Week 12 Week 13 Week 14 Next Implement Review Done # ~ 2/ 3 # ~ 5 / 7 # ~ 1 / 2 # ~ 4 / 6 # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ Done updates