Actuarial Science and Big Data: a solution for climate change

a workshop of D.I.A/.F Vietnam
http://assodiaf.org/

Transcript

1. Big Data, Actuary and Climate Change
2. “ Flood in Ho Chi Minh city – A sign of climatic change “
3. More than 200,000 animals died, and some herds experienced 100% mortality in less than 24 hours due to climate change and some other causes.
4. CONTENTS Big Data? What can Big Data do? Why actuaries can do Big Data? Big Data applications under climate change
5. Big Data? What is it and why?
6. Concept of Big Data ◉ Big data is a popular term used to describe the exponential growth and availability of data, both structured and unstructured ◉ And big data may be as important to business – and society – as the Internet has become. Why? More data may lead to more accurate analyses. BIG DATA
7. Why Big Data ? More data, more insights Capacity of storing data Source of data Advance of predictive model Volume of storing data increases significantly Cost of storing data reduces dramatically Ecommerce Forum, social media network (comments, images, videos) Internet of Things … Statistics algorithms Machine learning Simulation
8. What can Big Data do?
9. What can Big Data do ? Predict everything more precisely Amazon Google seft-driving car Credit scoring
10. Why actuaries can do Big Data under climate change?
11. Why actuaries ? Predictive modeling Traditional models - familiar with actuaries Modern models – inspired by the traditional approach Risk understanding Evaluating the likelihood of future events Decreasing the impact of undesirable events A C T U A R I E S
12. Climate Science Data Science Climate Informatics Climate Informatics offers insights, tools and methods that are increasingly needed in order to understand the climate system, an aspect which in turn has become crucial because of the threat of climate change thanks to: • The veritable explosion in the amount of data produced by satellites, environmental sensors. • The achievements of the lies at the intersection of machine learning and climate science.
13. Applications under the context of climate change
14. Big Data projects focused on climate change No 1 Climate change challenge WeatherSafe Coffee application - Vietnam No 3 No 2 Climate corporation
15. Climate Change: challenge for Machine Learning a contest between scientists to improve the capacity of climate prediction ◉Lots of uncertainty remain on traditional despite scientific approaches to the lack of data, the lack of appropriate statistical models to deal with structured/ unstructured data ◉Machine learning approaches help to answer crutial questions about trends of extreme events and also to improve prediction, assess impacts and vulnerability, and adaptation efforts
16. Kaggle’s Right Whale Recognition North Atlantic whales Whales are on the risk of extinction. Identifying the individual whale takes time, making it difficult to target whales for necessary health assessments. Scientists from all over the world are building a machine learning algorithm in order to automate the right whale recognition process to better take care of them.
17. Applications under the context of climate change Vietnam
18. Vietnam – A coffee giant ◉ 20% of the global production by kilogram ◉ The biggest exportation of robusta coffee – $3,62 billions
19. Coffee vs Climate change ◉ The production of 2013 to the one of 2012 is decreased by 24,8% ◉ It predicts that the coffee production of 2015 will be decreased by 30% comparing to the 2014 Coffee plant after hoarfrost
20. WeatherSafe Coffee application ◉Annual fee: 6 £ ◉Providing: Production information, hyper-local weather information, climatic information and expert advises ◉Technology: Bigdata using real time satelline data , weather data and soil data combining agronomic modelling
21. THANKS! Any questions? You can find us at assodiaf.org / contact@assodiaf.org