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ICU 153 Teleconference Support Material

ICU 153 Teleconference Support Material

preliminary support material synthesis for the ICU teleconference (issue 153, forecast period June - August 2013)

Nicolas Fauchereau

May 29, 2013
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  1. Island  Climate  Update  153  
    Forecast  period:  
    June  –  August  2013  
    Teleconference  Friday  30th  of  May  2013    
    (11:30  AM  NZ  Ame)  
    31/05/13   1  

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  2. 1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecAon,  circulaAon  and  SST  anomalies  
    last  month  (May  2013)  
    2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system):  situaAon  and  forecast    
    3)  Madden-­‐Julian  OscillaAon  (MJO)  diagnosAcs  and  forecasts    
    4)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast    
    5)  METPI  SST  Forecast    
    31/05/13   2  
    Outline    

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  3. 1)  Recent  Rainfall  (+Convec31/05/13   3  

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  4. Rainfall  anomalies  and  averages    (TRMM)    
    31/05/13   4  

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  5. Rainfall  anomalies  and  averages    (TRMM)    
    31/05/13   5  

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  6. NOAA  OLR  Anomalies  
    31/05/13   6  
    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml

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  7. 31/05/13   7  
    CirculaNCEP  /  DOE  to  the  29th  of  May  

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  8. 31/05/13   8  
    Past  6  months  rainfall  anomalies  for  ICU  Islands  group  (TRMM)  
    Experimental  product  
    •  Well  below  =  <  40  %  of  normal  
    •  Below  =  between  40  and  80  %  
    •  Normal  =  between  80  and  120  %  
    •  Above  =  between  120  and  160  %  
    •  Well  above  =  >  160  %  

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  9. SST  anomalies  April  2013  
    SST  anomalies  May  2013  
    31/05/13   9  

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  10. 2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situa31/05/13   10  

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  11. SOI  and  SST  NINO  INDICES  
    31/05/13  
    Datasource  =  BoM  (h_p://www.bom.gov.au/
    climate/enso/)   11  

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  12. The  ENSO  PrecipitaSOI  and  ESPI  INDICES  
    31/05/13  
    h_p://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/
    Events/thirty_day.html  
    12  

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  13. Surface  equatorial  SST  and  Zonal  Wind  anomalies  
    31/05/13   13  

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  14. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  and  heat  content  anomalies    
    31/05/13  
    http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/
    jsdisplay/
    14  
    h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml  
    24: TAO heat content (0-300 m)
    Oceanic Heat content anomaly (0-300m) from TAO
    http ://www. cpc . ncep . noaa . gov/ products / i n t r a s e a s o n a l / h e a t t l o n . shtml
    NIWA’s National Climate Centre Global powerpoint

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  15. ENSO  forecast  
     
    ©  NIWA  (Na)onal  Climate  Centre  Na)onal  Guidance)    
     
    31/05/13   15  
    Climate Model or Group JJA 2013 SON 2013 DJF 2013/14
    POAMA2.4 (Australia) Neutral Neutral Neutral  
    ECMWF (EU)          Neutral Neutral Unavailable  
    EuroSIP (EU) Neutral Neutral Unavailable  
    LDEO5 (USA) Neutral   Neutral   Neutral  
    NCEP CFS (USA)  Neutral Neutral+ Neutral+
    Met Office (UK) Neutral-­‐ Neutral Unavailable
    SCRIPPS/MPI (USA/FRG) Neutral-­‐ Neutral Warm  
    NASA-GMAO (USA) Neutral Neutral Neutral+  
    JMA (Japan) Neutral Neutral Unavailable  
    FRCGC SINTEX (Japan) Neutral-­‐ Neutral-­‐ Neutral  
     
    CPC CCA (USA) Neutral-­‐                Cold   Neutral-­‐  
    NOAA Linear Inverse (USA) Cold                Cold Neutral-­‐
    SSES (Ohio, USA) Neutral   Neutral   Unavailable  
    CLIPER (USA) Neutral   Neutral   Neutral  
    Florida State Univ. (USA) Neutral   Neutral Neutral  

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  16. 3)  MJO  diagnos31/05/13   16  

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  17. Madden  Julian  Oscilla31/05/13  
    h_p://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/  or  h_p://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/  
     
    17  

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  18. Madden  Julian  Oscilla31/05/13  
    h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast  
     
    18  

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  19. 5)  METPI  Rainfall  forecasts  
    31/05/13   19  

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  20. 31/05/13   20  
    MJJ  2013   JJA  2013  

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  21. 31/05/13   21  
    METPI  rainfall  results  
    !!!!  PRELIMINARY  !!!  

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  22. 31/05/13   22  
    METPI  rainfall  results  
    !!!!  PRELIMINARY  !!!  

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  23. 6)  METPI  SST  forecasts  
    31/05/13   23  

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  24. 31/05/13   24  
    MJJ  2013  
    SST  anomalies  May  2013  
    JJA  2013  
    Hasn’t  been  updated  

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  25. 31/05/13   25  
    METPI  SST  results  
    !!!!  PRELIMINARY  !!!  
     
    June%August*2013*Sea*Surface*Temperature*Guidance*
    !
    ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE
    Austral
    Islands 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High
    Cook Islands
    (Southern) 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High
    Fiji 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High
    Vanuatu 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High
    Cook Islands
    (Northern) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High
    Kiribati
    (Eastern) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate
    Kiribati
    (Western) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High
    Marquesas 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate
    New
    Caledonia 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High
    Niue 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High
    Papua New
    Guinea 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High
    Pitcairn
    Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High
    Samoa 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High
    Society
    Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High
    Solomon
    Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High
    Tokelau 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High
    Tonga 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High
    Tuamotu
    Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High
    Tuvalu 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High
    Wallis &
    Futuna 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High
    FSM 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High
    !

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