ICU 153 Teleconference Support Material

preliminary support material synthesis for the ICU teleconference (issue 153, forecast period June - August 2013)

Transcript

1. Island  Climate  Update  153   Forecast  period:   June  –  August  2013   Teleconference  Friday  30th  of  May  2013     (11:30  AM  NZ  Ame)   31/05/13   1  
2. 1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecAon,  circulaAon  and  SST  anomalies   last  month  (May  2013)   2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system):  situaAon  and  forecast     3)  Madden-­‐Julian  OscillaAon  (MJO)  diagnosAcs  and  forecasts     4)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast     5)  METPI  SST  Forecast     31/05/13   2   Outline    
3. 1)  Recent  Rainfall  (+Convec<on)  and  SST  in  the  SW  Pacific   31/05/13   3  
4. Rainfall  anomalies  and  averages    (TRMM)     31/05/13   4  
5. Rainfall  anomalies  and  averages    (TRMM)     31/05/13   5  
6. NOAA  OLR  Anomalies   31/05/13   6   http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml
7. 31/05/13   7   Circula<on  anomalies:  Geopoten<al  at  1000hPa  and  wind   NCEP  /  DOE  to  the  29th  of  May  
8. 31/05/13   8   Past  6  months  rainfall  anomalies  for  ICU  Islands  group  (TRMM)   Experimental  product   •  Well  below  =  <  40  %  of  normal   •  Below  =  between  40  and  80  %   •  Normal  =  between  80  and  120  %   •  Above  =  between  120  and  160  %   •  Well  above  =  >  160  %  
9. SST  anomalies  April  2013   SST  anomalies  May  2013   31/05/13   9  
10. 2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situa<on  and  forecast     31/05/13   10  
11. SOI  and  SST  NINO  INDICES   31/05/13   Datasource  =  BoM  (h_p://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/)   11  
12. The  ENSO  Precipita<on  Index  (ESPI)  for  the  last  30  days  (29th  May)  is  -­‐1.10     SOI  and  ESPI  INDICES   31/05/13   h_p://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html   12  
13. Surface  equatorial  SST  and  Zonal  Wind  anomalies   31/05/13   13  
14. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  and  heat  content  anomalies     31/05/13   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/ jsdisplay/ 14   h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml   24: TAO heat content (0-300 m) Oceanic Heat content anomaly (0-300m) from TAO http ://www. cpc . ncep . noaa . gov/ products / i n t r a s e a s o n a l / h e a t t l o n . shtml NIWA’s National Climate Centre Global powerpoint
15. ENSO  forecast     ©  NIWA  (Na)onal  Climate  Centre  Na)onal  Guidance)       31/05/13   15   Climate Model or Group JJA 2013 SON 2013 DJF 2013/14 POAMA2.4 (Australia) Neutral Neutral Neutral   ECMWF (EU)          Neutral Neutral Unavailable   EuroSIP (EU) Neutral Neutral Unavailable   LDEO5 (USA) Neutral   Neutral   Neutral   NCEP CFS (USA)  Neutral Neutral+ Neutral+ Met Office (UK) Neutral-­‐ Neutral Unavailable SCRIPPS/MPI (USA/FRG) Neutral-­‐ Neutral Warm   NASA-GMAO (USA) Neutral Neutral Neutral+   JMA (Japan) Neutral Neutral Unavailable   FRCGC SINTEX (Japan) Neutral-­‐ Neutral-­‐ Neutral     CPC CCA (USA) Neutral-­‐                Cold   Neutral-­‐   NOAA Linear Inverse (USA) Cold                Cold Neutral-­‐ SSES (Ohio, USA) Neutral   Neutral   Unavailable   CLIPER (USA) Neutral   Neutral   Neutral   Florida State Univ. (USA) Neutral   Neutral Neutral  
16. 3)  MJO  diagnos<cs  and  forecasts     31/05/13   16  
17. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  Monitoring  (BoM)   31/05/13   h_p://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/  or  h_p://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/     17  
18. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  Dynamical  Forecast  (CPC)   31/05/13   h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     18  
19. 5)  METPI  Rainfall  forecasts   31/05/13   19  
20. 31/05/13   20   MJJ  2013   JJA  2013  
21. 31/05/13   21   METPI  rainfall  results   !!!!  PRELIMINARY  !!!  
22. 31/05/13   22   METPI  rainfall  results   !!!!  PRELIMINARY  !!!  
23. 6)  METPI  SST  forecasts   31/05/13   23  
24. 31/05/13   24   MJJ  2013   SST  anomalies  May  2013   JJA  2013   Hasn’t  been  updated  
25. 31/05/13   25   METPI  SST  results   !!!!  PRELIMINARY  !!!     June%August*2013*Sea*Surface*Temperature*Guidance* ! ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Austral Islands 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Cook Islands (Southern) 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Fiji 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Vanuatu 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Cook Islands (Northern) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Kiribati (Eastern) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate Kiribati (Western) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Marquesas 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate New Caledonia 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Niue 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Papua New Guinea 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Samoa 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Society Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Solomon Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Tokelau 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Tonga 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Tuamotu Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Tuvalu 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Wallis & Futuna 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High FSM 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High !