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ICU_183

 ICU_183

Support material for the Island Climate Update teleconference (issue 183 of the ICU, December 2015 - february 2016 forecast period). Include preliminary rainfall outlooks

Nicolas Fauchereau

December 02, 2015
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  1. Island Climate Update 183
    Forecast period:
    December 2015 – February 2016
    Teleconference Thursday 3rd of December 2015
    (12:30 PM NZ Dme)
    3/12/15 1

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  2. 1) Some words on Rainfall / ConvecDon and SST anomalies last month
    (November 2015)
    2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system): situaDon and forecast
    3) Madden-Julian OscillaDon (MJO) diagnosDcs and forecasts
    4) METPI Rainfall Forecast
    5) METPI SST Forecast
    3/12/15 2
    Outline

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  3. 1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec3/12/15 3

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  4. Rainfall averages and anomalies (TRMM / GPM)
    3/12/15 4

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  5. 3/12/15 5
    hUp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml

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  6. 3/12/15 6
    •  Well below = < 40 % of normal
    •  Below = between 40 and 80 %
    •  Normal = between 80 and 120 %
    •  Above = between 120 and 160 %
    •  Well above = > 160 %
    Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM)

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  7. SST anomalies October 2015
    SST anomalies November 2015
    3/12/15 7

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  8. 3/12/15 8

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  9. 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa3/12/15 9

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  10. SOI and SST NINO INDICES
    3/12/15 Datasource = BoM (hUp://www.bom.gov.au/
    climate/enso/)
    10

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  11. The ENSO Precipita(El Niño)
    SOI and ESPI INDICES
    3/12/15
    hUp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/
    Events/thirty_day.html
    11

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  12. Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies
    3/12/15 12

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  13. Ocean sub-surface temp anomalies (TAO)
    3/12/15 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13
    hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml
    October 2015 November 2015 Last 5 days (November 30)

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  14. 3/12/15 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14
    hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml
    hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/
    analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/
    wksl_anm.gif
    Ocean heat content anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies

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  15. ENSO forecast
    © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal Guidance)
    3/12/15 15
    CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast ProbabiliDes
    IRI/CPC Mid-Month Plume-Based ENSO Forecast
    ProbabiliDes
    Season La Niña
    Prob.
    Neutral
    Prob.
    El Niño
    Prob.
    DJF 2015/16 0% 0% 100%
    MAM 2016 0% 3% 97%
    JJA 2016 17% 52% 31%

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  16. 3) MJO diagnos3/12/15 16

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  17. Madden Julian Oscilla3/12/15
    hUp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ or hUp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/
    17

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  18. Madden Julian Oscilla3/12/15
    hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
    18

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  19. Madden Julian Oscilla3/12/15
    hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
    19

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  20. 4) METPI Rainfall forecasts (DJF 2015/16)
    3/12/15 20

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  21. 3/12/15 21

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  22. 3/12/15 22
    METPI rainfall results

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  23. 3/12/15 23
    METPI rainfall results

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  24. 6) METPI SST forecasts (DJF 2015/16)
    3/12/15 24

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  25. 3/12/15 25

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