ICU_183

Support material for the Island Climate Update teleconference (issue 183 of the ICU, December 2015 - february 2016 forecast period). Include preliminary rainfall outlooks

Transcript

1. Island Climate Update 183 Forecast period: December 2015 – February 2016 Teleconference Thursday 3rd of December 2015 (12:30 PM NZ Dme) 3/12/15 1
2. 1) Some words on Rainfall / ConvecDon and SST anomalies last month (November 2015) 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system): situaDon and forecast 3) Madden-Julian OscillaDon (MJO) diagnosDcs and forecasts 4) METPI Rainfall Forecast 5) METPI SST Forecast 3/12/15 2 Outline
3. 1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec<on) and SST in the SW Pacific 3/12/15 3
4. Rainfall averages and anomalies (TRMM / GPM) 3/12/15 4
5. 3/12/15 5 hUp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml
6. 3/12/15 6 •  Well below = < 40 % of normal •  Below = between 40 and 80 % •  Normal = between 80 and 120 % •  Above = between 120 and 160 % •  Well above = > 160 % Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM)
7. SST anomalies October 2015 SST anomalies November 2015 3/12/15 7
8. 3/12/15 8
9. 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa<on and forecast 3/12/15 9
10. SOI and SST NINO INDICES 3/12/15 Datasource = BoM (hUp://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/) 10
11. The ENSO Precipita<on Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days (1 Dec.) is +0.89 (El Niño) SOI and ESPI INDICES 3/12/15 hUp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html 11
12. Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies 3/12/15 12
13. Ocean sub-surface temp anomalies (TAO) 3/12/15 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13 hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml October 2015 November 2015 Last 5 days (November 30)
14. 3/12/15 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14 hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/ wksl_anm.gif Ocean heat content anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies
15. ENSO forecast © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal Guidance) 3/12/15 15 CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast ProbabiliDes IRI/CPC Mid-Month Plume-Based ENSO Forecast ProbabiliDes Season La Niña Prob. Neutral Prob. El Niño Prob. DJF 2015/16 0% 0% 100% MAM 2016 0% 3% 97% JJA 2016 17% 52% 31%
16. 3) MJO diagnos<cs and forecasts 3/12/15 16
17. Madden Julian Oscilla<on Monitoring (BoM) 3/12/15 hUp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ or hUp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/ 17
18. Madden Julian Oscilla<on Dynamical Forecast (CPC) 3/12/15 hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast 18
19. Madden Julian Oscilla<on sta<s<cal Forecast (CPC) 3/12/15 hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast 19
20. 4) METPI Rainfall forecasts (DJF 2015/16) 3/12/15 20
21. 3/12/15 21
22. 3/12/15 22 METPI rainfall results
23. 3/12/15 23 METPI rainfall results
24. 6) METPI SST forecasts (DJF 2015/16) 3/12/15 24
25. 3/12/15 25