ICU_183

Support material for the Island Climate Update teleconference (issue 183 of the ICU, December 2015 - february 2016 forecast period). Include preliminary rainfall outlooks

Transcript

1. Island Climate Update 183
   Forecast period:
   December 2015 – February 2016
   Teleconference Thursday 3rd of December 2015
   (12:30 PM NZ Dme)
   3/12/15 1
   

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2. 1) Some words on Rainfall / ConvecDon and SST anomalies last month
   (November 2015)
   2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system): situaDon and forecast
   3) Madden-Julian OscillaDon (MJO) diagnosDcs and forecasts
   4) METPI Rainfall Forecast
   5) METPI SST Forecast
   3/12/15 2
   Outline
   

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3. 1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec3/12/15 3
   

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4. Rainfall averages and anomalies (TRMM / GPM)
   3/12/15 4
   

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5. 3/12/15 5
   hUp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml
   

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6. 3/12/15 6
   •  Well below = < 40 % of normal
   •  Below = between 40 and 80 %
   •  Normal = between 80 and 120 %
   •  Above = between 120 and 160 %
   •  Well above = > 160 %
   Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM)
   

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7. SST anomalies October 2015
   SST anomalies November 2015
   3/12/15 7
   

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8. 3/12/15 8
   

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9. 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa3/12/15 9
   

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10. SOI and SST NINO INDICES
    3/12/15 Datasource = BoM (hUp://www.bom.gov.au/
    climate/enso/)
    10
    

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11. The ENSO Precipita(El Niño)
    SOI and ESPI INDICES
    3/12/15
    hUp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/
    Events/thirty_day.html
    11
    

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12. Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies
    3/12/15 12
    

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13. Ocean sub-surface temp anomalies (TAO)
    3/12/15 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13
    hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml
    October 2015 November 2015 Last 5 days (November 30)
    

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14. 3/12/15 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14
    hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml
    hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/
    analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/
    wksl_anm.gif
    Ocean heat content anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies
    

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15. ENSO forecast
    © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal Guidance)
    3/12/15 15
    CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast ProbabiliDes
    IRI/CPC Mid-Month Plume-Based ENSO Forecast
    ProbabiliDes
    Season La Niña
    Prob.
    Neutral
    Prob.
    El Niño
    Prob.
    DJF 2015/16 0% 0% 100%
    MAM 2016 0% 3% 97%
    JJA 2016 17% 52% 31%
    

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16. 3) MJO diagnos3/12/15 16
    

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17. Madden Julian Oscilla3/12/15
    hUp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ or hUp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/
    17
    

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18. Madden Julian Oscilla3/12/15
    hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
    18
    

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19. Madden Julian Oscilla3/12/15
    hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
    19
    

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20. 4) METPI Rainfall forecasts (DJF 2015/16)
    3/12/15 20
    

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21. 3/12/15 21
    

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22. 3/12/15 22
    METPI rainfall results
    

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23. 3/12/15 23
    METPI rainfall results
    

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24. 6) METPI SST forecasts (DJF 2015/16)
    3/12/15 24
    

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25. 3/12/15 25
    

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