Upgrade to Pro
— share decks privately, control downloads, hide ads and more …
Speaker Deck
Features
Speaker Deck
PRO
Sign in
Sign up for free
Search
Search
ICU_185
Search
Nicolas Fauchereau
February 04, 2016
Science
0
56
ICU_185
support material for the Island Climate Update issue 185 (FMA 2016) teleconference
Nicolas Fauchereau
February 04, 2016
Tweet
Share
More Decks by Nicolas Fauchereau
See All by Nicolas Fauchereau
ICU_189
nicolasf
0
76
ICU_188
nicolasf
0
100
ICU_187
nicolasf
0
71
ICU_186
nicolasf
0
78
Seminar MJO Hamilton
nicolasf
0
54
ICU_184
nicolasf
1
95
ICU_183
nicolasf
0
96
ICU_182_NDJ_2016
nicolasf
0
89
ICU_181
nicolasf
0
73
Other Decks in Science
See All in Science
「美は世界を救う」を心理学で実証したい~クラファンを通じた新しい研究方法
jimpe_hitsuwari
1
160
Gemini Prompt Engineering: Practical Techniques for Tangible AI Outcomes
mfonobong
2
150
データベース12: 正規化(2/2) - データ従属性に基づく正規化
trycycle
PRO
0
960
06_浅井雄一郎_株式会社浅井農園代表取締役社長_紹介資料.pdf
sip3ristex
0
620
NASの容量不足のお悩み解決!災害対策も兼ねた「Wasabi Cloud NAS」はここがスゴイ
climbteam
0
120
データベース09: 実体関連モデル上の一貫性制約
trycycle
PRO
0
990
実力評価性能を考慮した弓道高校生全国大会の大会制度設計の提案 / (konakalab presentation at MSS 2025.03)
konakalab
2
190
CV_5_3dVision
hachama
0
150
データマイニング - グラフ構造の諸指標
trycycle
PRO
0
170
科学で迫る勝敗の法則(電気学会・SICE若手セミナー講演 2024年12月) / The principle of victory discovered by science (Lecture for young academists in IEEJ-SICE))
konakalab
0
130
機械学習 - K-means & 階層的クラスタリング
trycycle
PRO
0
1k
深層学習を用いた根菜類の個数カウントによる収量推定法の開発
kentaitakura
0
180
Featured
See All Featured
[RailsConf 2023] Rails as a piece of cake
palkan
57
5.8k
Design and Strategy: How to Deal with People Who Don’t "Get" Design
morganepeng
131
19k
Designing for Performance
lara
610
69k
Rails Girls Zürich Keynote
gr2m
95
14k
Making Projects Easy
brettharned
117
6.4k
Large-scale JavaScript Application Architecture
addyosmani
512
110k
Helping Users Find Their Own Way: Creating Modern Search Experiences
danielanewman
29
2.9k
The Web Performance Landscape in 2024 [PerfNow 2024]
tammyeverts
9
810
jQuery: Nuts, Bolts and Bling
dougneiner
64
7.9k
Done Done
chrislema
185
16k
Scaling GitHub
holman
463
140k
4 Signs Your Business is Dying
shpigford
184
22k
Transcript
Island Climate Update 185 Forecast period: February – April 2016
Teleconference Friday 5th of February 2016 (12:30 PM NZ Cme) 5/02/16 1
1) Some words on Rainfall / ConvecCon and SST anomalies
last month (January 2016) 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system): situaCon and forecast 3) Madden-Julian OscillaCon (MJO) diagnosCcs and forecasts 4) METPI Rainfall Forecast 5) METPI SST Forecast 5/02/16 2 Outline
1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec<on) and SST in the SW Pacific
5/02/16 3
Rainfall averages and anomalies (TRMM / GPM) 5/02/16 4
5/02/16 5 hTp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml
5/02/16 6 • Well below = < 40 % of
normal • Below = between 40 and 80 % • Normal = between 80 and 120 % • Above = between 120 and 160 % • Well above = > 160 % Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM)
SST anomalies December 2015 SST anomalies January 2016 5/02/16 7
5/02/16 8
2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa<on and forecast
5/02/16 9
SOI and SST NINO INDICES 5/02/16 Datasource = BoM (hTp://www.bom.gov.au/
climate/enso/) 10
The ENSO Precipita<on Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days
(11 Jan.) is +1.74 (El Niño) SOI and ESPI INDICES 5/02/16 hTp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html 11
Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies 5/02/16 12
Ocean sub-surface temp anomalies (TAO) 5/02/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13 hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml December
2015 January 2016 Last 5 days (February 3)
5/02/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14 hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/ wksl_anm.gif Ocean heat content
anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies
ENSO forecast © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal Guidance) 5/02/16
15 CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast ProbabiliCes IRI/CPC Mid-Month Plume-Based ENSO Forecast ProbabiliCes Season La Niña Prob. Neutral Prob. El Niño Prob. FMA 2016 0% 4% 96% MJJ 2016 13% 48% 39% ASO 2016 40% 46% 14% Climate Model or Group FMA 2016 MJJ 2016 ASO 2016 POAMA2.4 (Australia) El Niño Neutral + Neutral ECMWF (EU) El Niño Neutral Unavailable EuroSIP (EU) El Niño Neutral Unavailable LDEO5 (USA) El Niño Neutral + Neutral - NCEP CFS (USA) El Niño El Niño Neutral + Met Office (UK) El Niño Unavailable Unavailable SCRIPPS/MPI (USA/FRG) El Niño Neutral La Niña NASA-GMAO (USA) El Niño Neutral Unavailable JMA (Japan) El Niño Neutral Unavailable FRCGC SINTEX (Japan) El Niño Neutral Neutral - CPC CCA (USA) El Niño Neutral + Neutral NOAA Linear Inverse (USA) El Niño Neutral La Niña CLIPER (USA) El Niño Neutral Neutral - Florida State Univ. (USA) El Niño Neutral La Niña
3) MJO diagnos<cs and forecasts 5/02/16 16
Madden Julian Oscilla<on Monitoring (BoM) 5/02/16 hTp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ or hTp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/ 17
Madden Julian Oscilla<on Dynamical Forecast (CPC) 5/02/16 hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast 18
Madden Julian Oscilla<on sta<s<cal Forecast (CPC) 5/02/16 hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast 19
4) METPI Rainfall forecasts (FMA 2016) 5/02/16 20
5/02/16 21 TRMM rainfall anomalies for the past 30 days
Rainfall forecasts for FMA 2016
5/02/16 22 METPI rainfall results February – April 2016 ICU
Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Kiribati (Eastern) 10 30 60 ABOVE High Kiribati (Western) 10 30 60 ABOVE Moderate-High Tuvalu 20 30 50 ABOVE Moderate-High Cook Islands (Northern) 20 35 45 ABOVE Moderate-High Marquesas 20 35 45 ABOVE High Tokelau 20 35 45 ABOVE High Tuamotu Islands 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Austral Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Society Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Cook Islands (Southern) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate Papua New Guinea 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Solomon Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High New Caledonia 45 35 20 BELOW High Samoa 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High Tonga 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Vanuatu (North) 50 30 20 BELOW Wallis & Futuna 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Niue 55 30 15 BELOW Moderate-High Fiji 60 30 10 BELOW Moderate-High Vanuatu (South) 60 30 10 BELOW Moderate-High FSM 60 30 10 BELOW High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is
5/02/16 23 METPI rainfall results
6) METPI SST forecasts (JFM 2015/16) 5/02/16 24
5/02/16 25 SST anomalies For January 2016 SST forecasts for
FMA 2016