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ICU_185

 ICU_185

support material for the Island Climate Update issue 185 (FMA 2016) teleconference

Nicolas Fauchereau

February 04, 2016
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  1. Island Climate Update 185
    Forecast period:
    February – April 2016
    Teleconference Friday 5th of February 2016
    (12:30 PM NZ Cme)
    5/02/16 1

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  2. 1) Some words on Rainfall / ConvecCon and SST anomalies last month
    (January 2016)
    2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system): situaCon and forecast
    3) Madden-Julian OscillaCon (MJO) diagnosCcs and forecasts
    4) METPI Rainfall Forecast
    5) METPI SST Forecast
    5/02/16 2
    Outline

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  3. 1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec5/02/16 3

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  4. Rainfall averages and anomalies (TRMM / GPM)
    5/02/16 4

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  5. 5/02/16 5
    hTp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml

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  6. 5/02/16 6
    •  Well below = < 40 % of normal
    •  Below = between 40 and 80 %
    •  Normal = between 80 and 120 %
    •  Above = between 120 and 160 %
    •  Well above = > 160 %
    Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM)

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  7. SST anomalies December 2015
    SST anomalies January 2016
    5/02/16 7

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  8. 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa5/02/16 9

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  9. SOI and SST NINO INDICES
    5/02/16 Datasource = BoM (hTp://www.bom.gov.au/
    climate/enso/)
    10

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  10. The ENSO Precipita(El Niño)
    SOI and ESPI INDICES
    5/02/16
    hTp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/
    Events/thirty_day.html
    11

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  11. Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies
    5/02/16 12

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  12. Ocean sub-surface temp anomalies (TAO)
    5/02/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml
    December 2015 January 2016 Last 5 days (February 3)

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  13. 5/02/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/
    analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/
    wksl_anm.gif
    Ocean heat content anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies

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  14. ENSO forecast
    © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal Guidance)
    5/02/16 15
    CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast ProbabiliCes
    IRI/CPC Mid-Month Plume-Based ENSO Forecast
    ProbabiliCes
    Season La Niña
    Prob.
    Neutral
    Prob.
    El Niño
    Prob.
    FMA 2016 0% 4% 96%
    MJJ 2016 13% 48% 39%
    ASO 2016 40% 46% 14%
    Climate Model or
    Group
    FMA 2016 MJJ 2016 ASO 2016
    POAMA2.4 (Australia) El Niño Neutral + Neutral
    ECMWF (EU) El Niño Neutral Unavailable
    EuroSIP (EU) El Niño Neutral Unavailable
    LDEO5 (USA) El Niño Neutral + Neutral -
    NCEP CFS (USA) El Niño El Niño Neutral +
    Met Office (UK) El Niño Unavailable Unavailable
    SCRIPPS/MPI (USA/FRG) El Niño Neutral La Niña
    NASA-GMAO (USA) El Niño Neutral Unavailable
    JMA (Japan) El Niño Neutral Unavailable
    FRCGC SINTEX (Japan) El Niño Neutral Neutral -
    CPC CCA (USA) El Niño Neutral + Neutral
    NOAA Linear Inverse (USA) El Niño Neutral La Niña
    CLIPER (USA) El Niño Neutral Neutral -
    Florida State Univ. (USA) El Niño Neutral La Niña

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  15. 3) MJO diagnos5/02/16 16

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  16. Madden Julian Oscilla5/02/16
    hTp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ or hTp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/
    17

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  17. Madden Julian Oscilla5/02/16
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
    18

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  18. Madden Julian Oscilla5/02/16
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
    19

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  19. 4) METPI Rainfall forecasts (FMA 2016)
    5/02/16 20

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  20. 5/02/16 21
    TRMM rainfall anomalies
    for the past 30 days
    Rainfall forecasts for FMA 2016

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  21. 5/02/16 22
    METPI rainfall results
    February – April 2016 ICU Rainfall Guidance
    ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE
    Kiribati
    (Eastern)
    10 30 60 ABOVE High
    Kiribati
    (Western)
    10 30 60 ABOVE Moderate-High
    Tuvalu 20 30 50 ABOVE Moderate-High
    Cook Islands
    (Northern)
    20 35 45 ABOVE Moderate-High
    Marquesas 20 35 45 ABOVE High
    Tokelau 20 35 45 ABOVE High
    Tuamotu
    Islands
    25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High
    Austral Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High
    Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High
    Society Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High
    Cook Islands
    (Southern)
    40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate
    Papua New
    Guinea
    40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High
    Solomon
    Islands
    40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High
    New Caledonia 45 35 20 BELOW High
    Samoa 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Tonga 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Vanuatu
    (North)
    50 30 20 BELOW
    Wallis &
    Futuna
    50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Niue 55 30 15 BELOW Moderate-High
    Fiji 60 30 10 BELOW Moderate-High
    Vanuatu
    (South)
    60 30 10 BELOW Moderate-High
    FSM 60 30 10 BELOW High
    Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for
    the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall
    occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is

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  22. 5/02/16 23
    METPI rainfall results

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  23. 6) METPI SST forecasts (JFM 2015/16)
    5/02/16 24

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  24. 5/02/16 25
    SST anomalies
    For January 2016
    SST forecasts for FMA 2016

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