Upgrade to Pro
— share decks privately, control downloads, hide ads and more …
Speaker Deck
Features
Speaker Deck
PRO
Sign in
Sign up for free
Search
Search
ICU_185
Search
Nicolas Fauchereau
February 04, 2016
Science
0
43
ICU_185
support material for the Island Climate Update issue 185 (FMA 2016) teleconference
Nicolas Fauchereau
February 04, 2016
Tweet
Share
More Decks by Nicolas Fauchereau
See All by Nicolas Fauchereau
ICU_189
nicolasf
0
67
ICU_188
nicolasf
0
90
ICU_187
nicolasf
0
59
ICU_186
nicolasf
0
65
Seminar MJO Hamilton
nicolasf
0
48
ICU_184
nicolasf
1
78
ICU_183
nicolasf
0
84
ICU_182_NDJ_2016
nicolasf
0
78
ICU_181
nicolasf
0
61
Other Decks in Science
See All in Science
20231211ベクトル解析の計算
kamakiri1225
0
150
早わかり W3C Community Group
takanorip
0
330
BMI 研究はなぜ同じ失敗を繰り返すのか(日本BMI研究会, 2021.11.5)
ykamit
1
2.2k
AI Alignment: A Comprehensive Survey
s_ota
0
210
LIMEを用いた判断根拠の可視化
kentaitakura
0
170
第61回コンピュータビジョン勉強会「BioCLIP: A Vision Foundation Model for the Tree of Life」
x_ttyszk
1
1.4k
学術講演会中央大学学員会八王子支部
tagtag
0
190
TellusTravelerでダウンロードしたSARデータで遊んでみた話
mierune
PRO
0
190
汎用原子シミュレータMatlantis のご紹介
matlantis
0
270
AI(人工知能)の過去・現在・未来 —AIは人間を超えるのか—
tagtag
0
280
Direct Preference Optimization
zchenry
0
230
最新のAI技術を使った材料シミュレーションで材料研究現場に変革を
matlantis
0
640
Featured
See All Featured
GraphQLの誤解/rethinking-graphql
sonatard
59
9.6k
Writing Fast Ruby
sferik
623
60k
Designing for Performance
lara
604
67k
The Pragmatic Product Professional
lauravandoore
29
6.1k
Git: the NoSQL Database
bkeepers
PRO
423
64k
個人開発の失敗を避けるイケてる考え方 / tips for indie hackers
panda_program
78
15k
Save Time (by Creating Custom Rails Generators)
garrettdimon
PRO
13
430
Put a Button on it: Removing Barriers to Going Fast.
kastner
58
3.3k
Refactoring Trust on Your Teams (GOTO; Chicago 2020)
rmw
29
2.5k
Learning to Love Humans: Emotional Interface Design
aarron
269
39k
[RailsConf 2023] Rails as a piece of cake
palkan
35
4.4k
YesSQL, Process and Tooling at Scale
rocio
166
14k
Transcript
Island Climate Update 185 Forecast period: February – April 2016
Teleconference Friday 5th of February 2016 (12:30 PM NZ Cme) 5/02/16 1
1) Some words on Rainfall / ConvecCon and SST anomalies
last month (January 2016) 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system): situaCon and forecast 3) Madden-Julian OscillaCon (MJO) diagnosCcs and forecasts 4) METPI Rainfall Forecast 5) METPI SST Forecast 5/02/16 2 Outline
1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec<on) and SST in the SW Pacific
5/02/16 3
Rainfall averages and anomalies (TRMM / GPM) 5/02/16 4
5/02/16 5 hTp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml
5/02/16 6 • Well below = < 40 % of
normal • Below = between 40 and 80 % • Normal = between 80 and 120 % • Above = between 120 and 160 % • Well above = > 160 % Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM)
SST anomalies December 2015 SST anomalies January 2016 5/02/16 7
5/02/16 8
2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa<on and forecast
5/02/16 9
SOI and SST NINO INDICES 5/02/16 Datasource = BoM (hTp://www.bom.gov.au/
climate/enso/) 10
The ENSO Precipita<on Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days
(11 Jan.) is +1.74 (El Niño) SOI and ESPI INDICES 5/02/16 hTp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html 11
Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies 5/02/16 12
Ocean sub-surface temp anomalies (TAO) 5/02/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13 hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml December
2015 January 2016 Last 5 days (February 3)
5/02/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14 hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/ wksl_anm.gif Ocean heat content
anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies
ENSO forecast © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal Guidance) 5/02/16
15 CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast ProbabiliCes IRI/CPC Mid-Month Plume-Based ENSO Forecast ProbabiliCes Season La Niña Prob. Neutral Prob. El Niño Prob. FMA 2016 0% 4% 96% MJJ 2016 13% 48% 39% ASO 2016 40% 46% 14% Climate Model or Group FMA 2016 MJJ 2016 ASO 2016 POAMA2.4 (Australia) El Niño Neutral + Neutral ECMWF (EU) El Niño Neutral Unavailable EuroSIP (EU) El Niño Neutral Unavailable LDEO5 (USA) El Niño Neutral + Neutral - NCEP CFS (USA) El Niño El Niño Neutral + Met Office (UK) El Niño Unavailable Unavailable SCRIPPS/MPI (USA/FRG) El Niño Neutral La Niña NASA-GMAO (USA) El Niño Neutral Unavailable JMA (Japan) El Niño Neutral Unavailable FRCGC SINTEX (Japan) El Niño Neutral Neutral - CPC CCA (USA) El Niño Neutral + Neutral NOAA Linear Inverse (USA) El Niño Neutral La Niña CLIPER (USA) El Niño Neutral Neutral - Florida State Univ. (USA) El Niño Neutral La Niña
3) MJO diagnos<cs and forecasts 5/02/16 16
Madden Julian Oscilla<on Monitoring (BoM) 5/02/16 hTp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ or hTp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/ 17
Madden Julian Oscilla<on Dynamical Forecast (CPC) 5/02/16 hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast 18
Madden Julian Oscilla<on sta<s<cal Forecast (CPC) 5/02/16 hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast 19
4) METPI Rainfall forecasts (FMA 2016) 5/02/16 20
5/02/16 21 TRMM rainfall anomalies for the past 30 days
Rainfall forecasts for FMA 2016
5/02/16 22 METPI rainfall results February – April 2016 ICU
Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Kiribati (Eastern) 10 30 60 ABOVE High Kiribati (Western) 10 30 60 ABOVE Moderate-High Tuvalu 20 30 50 ABOVE Moderate-High Cook Islands (Northern) 20 35 45 ABOVE Moderate-High Marquesas 20 35 45 ABOVE High Tokelau 20 35 45 ABOVE High Tuamotu Islands 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Austral Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Society Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Cook Islands (Southern) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate Papua New Guinea 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Solomon Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High New Caledonia 45 35 20 BELOW High Samoa 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High Tonga 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Vanuatu (North) 50 30 20 BELOW Wallis & Futuna 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Niue 55 30 15 BELOW Moderate-High Fiji 60 30 10 BELOW Moderate-High Vanuatu (South) 60 30 10 BELOW Moderate-High FSM 60 30 10 BELOW High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is
5/02/16 23 METPI rainfall results
6) METPI SST forecasts (JFM 2015/16) 5/02/16 24
5/02/16 25 SST anomalies For January 2016 SST forecasts for
FMA 2016