ICU_186

Supplementary Material for the teleconference of the ICU issue 186 (forecast period MAM 2016)

Transcript

1. Island Climate Update 186 Forecast period: March – May 2016 Teleconference Friday 4th of March 2016 (12:30 PM NZ @me) 4/03/16 1
2. 1) Some words on Rainfall / Convec@on and SST anomalies last month (February 2016) 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system): situa@on and forecast 3) Madden-Julian Oscilla@on (MJO) diagnos@cs and forecasts 4) METPI Rainfall Forecast 5) METPI SST Forecast 4/03/16 2 Outline
3. 1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec<on) and SST in the SW Pacific 4/03/16 3
4. Rainfall averages and anomalies (TRMM / GPM) 4/03/16 4
5. 4/03/16 5 hTp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml
6. 4/03/16 6 •  Well below = < 40 % of normal •  Below = between 40 and 80 % •  Normal = between 80 and 120 % •  Above = between 120 and 160 % •  Well above = > 160 % Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM)
7. SST anomalies January 2016 SST anomalies February 2016 4/03/16 7
8. 4/03/16 8
9. 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa<on and forecast 4/03/16 9
10. SOI and SST NINO INDICES 4/03/16 Datasource = BoM (hTp://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/) 10
11. The ENSO Precipita<on Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days (3 Mar.) is +1.36 (El Niño) SOI and ESPI INDICES 4/03/16 hTp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html 11
12. Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies 4/03/16 12
13. Ocean sub-surface temp anomalies (TAO) 4/03/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13 hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml January 2015 February 2016 Last 5 days (March 3)
14. 4/03/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14 hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/ wksl_anm.gif Ocean heat content anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies
15. ENSO forecast © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal Guidance) 4/03/16 15 CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast Probabili@es IRI/CPC Mid-Month Plume-Based ENSO Forecast Probabili@es Season La Niña Prob. Neutral Prob. El Niño Prob. MAM 2016 0% 1% 99% JJA 2016 29% 56% 15% SON 2016 49% 36% 15% Climate Model or Group MAM 2016 JJA 2016 SON 2016 POAMA2.4 (Australia) El Niño Neutral Unavailable ECMWF (EU) El Niño Neutral Unavailable EuroSIP (EU) El Niño Neutral Unavailable LDEO5 (USA) El Niño Neutral + El Niño NCEP CFS (USA) El Niño Neutral + Neutral + Met Office (UK) El Niño Unavailable Unavailable SCRIPPS/MPI (USA/FRG) El Niño Neutral - La Niña NASA-GMAO (USA) El Niño Neutral Unavailable JMA (Japan) El Niño Neutral - Unavailable FRCGC SINTEX (Japan) El Niño Neutral La Niña CPC CCA (USA) El Niño Neutral Neutral - NOAA Linear Inverse (USA) El Niño Neutral La Niña CLIPER (USA) El Niño Neutral Neutral Florida State Univ. (USA) El Niño Neutral La Niña
16. 3) MJO diagnos<cs and forecasts 4/03/16 16
17. Madden Julian Oscilla<on Monitoring (BoM) 4/03/16 hTp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ or hTp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/ 17
18. Madden Julian Oscilla<on Dynamical Forecast (CPC) 4/03/16 hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast 18
19. Madden Julian Oscilla<on sta<s<cal Forecast (CPC) 4/03/16 hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast 19
20. 4) METPI Rainfall forecasts (MAM 2016) 4/03/16 20
21. 4/03/16 21 TRMM rainfall anomalies for the past 30 days Rainfall forecasts for MAM 2016
22. 4/03/16 22 METPI rainfall results March – May 2016 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Kiribati (Eastern) 10 30 60 ABOVE High Kiribati (Western) 10 30 60 ABOVE Moderate-High Marquesas 20 30 50 ABOVE High Cook Islands (Northern) 20 35 45 ABOVE Moderate-High Tokelau 20 35 45 ABOVE High Tuamotu Islands 20 35 45 ABOVE Moderate-High Tuvalu 20 35 45 ABOVE Moderate-High Papua New Guinea 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Society Islands 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate Austral Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Solomon Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Cook Islands (Southern) 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High New Caledonia 45 35 20 BELOW High Samoa 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High Tonga 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High Vanuatu (South) 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High Wallis & Futuna 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High Fiji 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Niue 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Vanuatu (North) 50 30 20 BELOW FSM 60 30 10 BELOW High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is
23. 4/03/16 23 METPI rainfall results
24. 6) METPI SST forecasts (MAM 2016) 4/03/16 24
25. 4/03/16 25 SST anomalies For February 2016 SST forecasts for MAM 2016