ICU_186

Supplementary Material for the teleconference of the ICU issue 186 (forecast period MAM 2016)

Transcript

1. Island Climate Update 186
   Forecast period:
   March – May 2016
   Teleconference Friday 4th of March 2016
   (12:30 PM NZ @me)
   4/03/16 1
   

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2. 1) Some words on Rainfall / Convec@on and SST anomalies last month
   (February 2016)
   2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system): situa@on and forecast
   3) Madden-Julian Oscilla@on (MJO) diagnos@cs and forecasts
   4) METPI Rainfall Forecast
   5) METPI SST Forecast
   4/03/16 2
   Outline
   

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3. 1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec4/03/16 3
   

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4. Rainfall averages and anomalies (TRMM / GPM)
   4/03/16 4
   

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5. 4/03/16 5
   hTp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml
   

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6. 4/03/16 6
   •  Well below = < 40 % of normal
   •  Below = between 40 and 80 %
   •  Normal = between 80 and 120 %
   •  Above = between 120 and 160 %
   •  Well above = > 160 %
   Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM)
   

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7. SST anomalies January 2016
   SST anomalies February 2016
   4/03/16 7
   

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8. 4/03/16 8
   

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9. 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa4/03/16 9
   

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10. SOI and SST NINO INDICES
    4/03/16 Datasource = BoM (hTp://www.bom.gov.au/
    climate/enso/)
    10
    

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11. The ENSO Precipita(El Niño)
    SOI and ESPI INDICES
    4/03/16
    hTp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/
    Events/thirty_day.html
    11
    

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12. Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies
    4/03/16 12
    

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13. Ocean sub-surface temp anomalies (TAO)
    4/03/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml
    January 2015 February 2016 Last 5 days (March 3)
    

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14. 4/03/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/
    analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/
    wksl_anm.gif
    Ocean heat content anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies
    

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15. ENSO forecast
    © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal Guidance)
    4/03/16 15
    CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast Probabili@es
    IRI/CPC Mid-Month Plume-Based ENSO Forecast
    Probabili@es
    Season La Niña
    Prob.
    Neutral
    Prob.
    El Niño
    Prob.
    MAM 2016 0% 1% 99%
    JJA 2016 29% 56% 15%
    SON 2016 49% 36% 15%
    Climate Model or
    Group
    MAM 2016 JJA 2016 SON 2016
    POAMA2.4 (Australia) El Niño Neutral Unavailable
    ECMWF (EU) El Niño Neutral Unavailable
    EuroSIP (EU) El Niño Neutral Unavailable
    LDEO5 (USA) El Niño Neutral + El Niño
    NCEP CFS (USA) El Niño Neutral + Neutral +
    Met Office (UK) El Niño Unavailable Unavailable
    SCRIPPS/MPI (USA/FRG) El Niño Neutral - La Niña
    NASA-GMAO (USA) El Niño Neutral Unavailable
    JMA (Japan) El Niño Neutral - Unavailable
    FRCGC SINTEX (Japan) El Niño Neutral La Niña
    CPC CCA (USA) El Niño Neutral Neutral -
    NOAA Linear Inverse (USA) El Niño Neutral La Niña
    CLIPER (USA) El Niño Neutral Neutral
    Florida State Univ. (USA) El Niño Neutral La Niña
    

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16. 3) MJO diagnos4/03/16 16
    

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17. Madden Julian Oscilla4/03/16
    hTp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ or hTp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/
    17
    

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18. Madden Julian Oscilla4/03/16
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
    18
    

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19. Madden Julian Oscilla4/03/16
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
    19
    

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20. 4) METPI Rainfall forecasts (MAM 2016)
    4/03/16 20
    

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21. 4/03/16 21
    TRMM rainfall anomalies
    for the past 30 days
    Rainfall forecasts for MAM 2016
    

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22. 4/03/16 22
    METPI rainfall results
    March – May 2016 ICU Rainfall Guidance
    ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE
    Kiribati
    (Eastern)
    10 30 60 ABOVE High
    Kiribati
    (Western)
    10 30 60 ABOVE Moderate-High
    Marquesas 20 30 50 ABOVE High
    Cook Islands
    (Northern)
    20 35 45 ABOVE Moderate-High
    Tokelau 20 35 45 ABOVE High
    Tuamotu
    Islands
    20 35 45 ABOVE Moderate-High
    Tuvalu 20 35 45 ABOVE Moderate-High
    Papua New
    Guinea
    25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High
    Society Islands 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High
    Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate
    Austral Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High
    Solomon
    Islands
    40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High
    Cook Islands
    (Southern)
    45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    New Caledonia 45 35 20 BELOW High
    Samoa 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Tonga 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Vanuatu
    (South)
    45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Wallis &
    Futuna
    45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Fiji 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Niue 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Vanuatu
    (North)
    50 30 20 BELOW
    FSM 60 30 10 BELOW High
    Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for
    the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall
    occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is
    

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23. 4/03/16 23
    METPI rainfall results
    

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24. 6) METPI SST forecasts (MAM 2016)
    4/03/16 24
    

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25. 4/03/16 25
    SST anomalies
    For February 2016
    SST forecasts for MAM 2016
    

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