ICU_188

support material for the ICU 188 teleconference (MJJ 2016) including preliminary rainfall outlooks from METPI

Transcript

1. Island Climate Update 188
   Forecast period:
   May – July 2016
   Teleconference Wednesday 4th of May 2016
   (12:30 PM NZ Cme)
   4/05/16 1
   

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2. 1) Some words on Rainfall / ConvecCon and SST anomalies last month
   (April 2016)
   2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system): situaCon and forecast
   3) Madden-Julian OscillaCon (MJO) diagnosCcs and forecasts
   4) METPI Rainfall Forecast
   5) METPI SST Forecast
   4/05/16 2
   Outline
   

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3. 1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec;on) and SST in the SW Pacific
   4/05/16 3
   

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4. Rainfall averages and anomalies (TRMM / GPM)
   4/05/16 4
   

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5. 4/05/16 5
   hTp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml
   

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6. 4/05/16 6
   •  Well below = < 40 % of normal
   •  Below = between 40 and 80 %
   •  Normal = between 80 and 120 %
   •  Above = between 120 and 160 %
   •  Well above = > 160 %
   Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM)
   

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7. SST anomalies April 2016
   4/05/16 7
   SST anomalies March 2016
   

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8. 4/05/16 8
   

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9. 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa;on and forecast
   4/05/16 9
   

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10. SOI and SST NINO INDICES
    4/05/16 Datasource = BoM (hTp://www.bom.gov.au/
    climate/enso/)
    10
    

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11. The ENSO Precipita;on Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days (3 May) is +0.95
    (El Niño)
    SOI and ESPI INDICES
    4/05/16
    hTp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/
    Events/thirty_day.html
    11
    

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12. Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies
    4/05/16 12
    

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13. Ocean sub-surface temp anomalies (TAO)
    4/05/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml
    April 2016 Last 5 days (May 2)
    March 2016
    

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14. 4/05/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/
    analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/
    wksl_anm.gif
    Ocean heat content anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies
    

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15. ENSO forecast
    © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal Guidance)
    4/05/16 15
    CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast ProbabiliCes
    IRI/CPC Mid-Month Plume-Based ENSO Forecast
    ProbabiliCes
    Season La Niña
    Prob.
    Neutral
    Prob.
    El Niño
    Prob.
    MJJ 2016 5% 76% 29%
    ASO 2016 52% 40% 8%
    NDJ 2016/17 60% 30% 10%
    Climate Model or
    Group
    MJJ 2016 ASO 2016 NDJ 2016/17
    POAMA2.4 (Australia) Neutral Neutral Unavailable
    ECMWF (EU) Neutral Neutral Unavailable
    EuroSIP (EU) Neutral Neutral Unavailable
    LDEO5 (USA) Neutral Neutral Neutral
    NCEP CFS (USA) Neutral La Niña La Niña
    Met Office (UK) Neutral + Unavailable Unavailable
    SCRIPPS/MPI (USA/FRG) La Niña La Niña La Niña
    NASA-GMAO (USA) La Niña La Niña Unavailable
    JMA (Japan) Neutral La Niña Unavailable
    FRCGC SINTEX (Japan) Neutral Neutral La Niña
    CPC CCA (USA) Neutral + Neutral - La Niña
    NOAA Linear Inverse (USA) Neutral Neutral Neutral -
    CLIPER (USA) Neutral Neutral - La Niña
    Florida State Univ. (USA) Neutral + Neutral - Neutral -
    

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16. 3) MJO diagnos;cs and forecasts
    4/05/16 16
    

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17. Madden Julian Oscilla;on Monitoring (BoM)
    4/05/16
    hTp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ or hTp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/
    17
    

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18. Madden Julian Oscilla;on Dynamical Forecast (CPC)
    4/05/16
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
    18
    

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19. Madden Julian Oscilla;on sta;s;cal Forecast (CPC)
    4/05/16
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
    19
    

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20. 4) METPI Rainfall forecasts (MJJ 2016)
    4/05/16 20
    

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21. 4/05/16 21
    TRMM rainfall anomalies
    for the past 30 days
    Rainfall forecasts for MJJ 2016
    

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22. 4/05/16 22
    METPI rainfall results
    May – July 2016 ICU Rainfall Guidance
    ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE
    Cook Islands
    (Northern)
    20 30 50 ABOVE Moderate-High
    Tokelau 20 30 50 ABOVE High
    Tuvalu 20 30 50 ABOVE High
    Marquesas 20 35 45 ABOVE High
    Tuamotu
    Islands
    25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High
    Society Islands 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High
    Samoa 30 35 35 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate-High
    Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate
    Kiribati
    (Western)
    35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate
    Papua New
    Guinea
    35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate-High
    New Caledonia 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High
    Solomon
    Islands
    35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High
    Austral Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High
    Kiribati
    (Eastern)
    40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate
    Wallis &
    Futuna
    40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High
    Cook Islands
    (Southern)
    45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Niue 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Tonga 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Vanuatu
    (South)
    45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Fiji 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Vanuatu
    (North)
    50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    FSM 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for
    the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall
    occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is
    

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23. 4/05/16 23
    METPI rainfall results
    

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24. La Nina in the Pacific
    4/05/16 24
    

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25. 4/05/16 25
    strong
    moderate
    

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26. 4/05/16 26
    weak
    weak
    

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27. 4/05/16 27
    

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28. 6) METPI SST forecasts (MJJ 2016)
    4/05/16 28
    

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29. 4/05/16 29
    SST anomalies
    For April 2016
    SST forecasts for MJJ 2016
    

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