ICU_187

preliminary support material for the ICU 187 teleconference

Transcript

1. Island Climate Update 187
   Forecast period:
   April – June 2016
   Teleconference Wednesday 6th of April 2016
   (12:30 PM NZ Cme)
   6/04/16 1
   

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2. 1) Some words on Rainfall / ConvecCon and SST anomalies last month
   (March 2016)
   2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system): situaCon and forecast
   3) Madden-Julian OscillaCon (MJO) diagnosCcs and forecasts
   4) METPI Rainfall Forecast
   5) METPI SST Forecast
   6/04/16 2
   Outline
   

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3. 1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec6/04/16 3
   

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4. Rainfall averages and anomalies (TRMM / GPM)
   6/04/16 4
   

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5. 6/04/16 5
   hTp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml
   

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6. 6/04/16 6
   •  Well below = < 40 % of normal
   •  Below = between 40 and 80 %
   •  Normal = between 80 and 120 %
   •  Above = between 120 and 160 %
   •  Well above = > 160 %
   Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM)
   

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7. SST anomalies March 2016
   6/04/16 7
   SST anomalies February 2016
   

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8. 6/04/16 8
   

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9. 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa6/04/16 9
   

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10. SOI and SST NINO INDICES
    6/04/16 Datasource = BoM (hTp://www.bom.gov.au/
    climate/enso/)
    10
    

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11. The ENSO Precipita(El Niño)
    SOI and ESPI INDICES
    6/04/16
    hTp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/
    Events/thirty_day.html
    11
    

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12. Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies
    6/04/16 12
    

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13. Ocean sub-surface temp anomalies (TAO)
    6/04/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml
    March 2016 Last 5 days (April 3)
    February 2016
    

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14. 6/04/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/
    analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/
    wksl_anm.gif
    Ocean heat content anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies
    

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15. ENSO forecast
    © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal Guidance)
    6/04/16 15
    CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast ProbabiliCes
    IRI/CPC Mid-Month Plume-Based ENSO Forecast
    ProbabiliCes
    Season La Niña
    Prob.
    Neutral
    Prob.
    El Niño
    Prob.
    AMJ 2016 0% 20% 80%
    JAS 2016 40% 49% 11%
    OND 2016 46% 36% 18%
    Climate Model or
    Group
    AMJ 2016 JAS 2016 OND 2016
    POAMA2.4 (Australia) El Niño Neutral Unavailable
    ECMWF (EU) Neutral Neutral Unavailable
    EuroSIP (EU) El Niño Neutral Unavailable
    LDEO5 (USA) El Niño Neutral + El Niño
    NCEP CFS (USA) El Niño El Niño El Niño
    Met Office (UK) El Niño Unavailable Unavailable
    SCRIPPS/MPI (USA/FRG) El Niño La Niña La Niña
    NASA-GMAO (USA) El Niño La Niña Unavailable
    JMA (Japan) El Niño La Niña Unavailable
    FRCGC SINTEX (Japan) El Niño Neutral - La Niña
    CPC CCA (USA) Neutral + Neutral - La Niña
    NOAA Linear Inverse (USA) Neutral + Neutral La Niña
    CLIPER (USA) Neutral + Neutral - Neutral -
    Florida State Univ. (USA) El Niño Neutral La Niña
    

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16. 3) MJO diagnos6/04/16 16
    

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17. Madden Julian Oscilla6/04/16
    hTp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ or hTp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/
    17
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.phase.Last40days.gif
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/olr_hovs_183_-15_15.ps.png
    

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18. Madden Julian Oscilla6/04/16
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
    18
    

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19. Madden Julian Oscilla6/04/16
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
    19
    

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20. 4) METPI Rainfall forecasts (AMJ 2016)
    6/04/16 20
    

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21. 6/04/16 21
    TRMM rainfall anomalies
    for the past 30 days
    Rainfall forecasts for AMJ 2016
    

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22. 6/04/16 22
    METPI rainfall results
    April – June 2016 ICU Rainfall Guidance
    ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE
    Cook Islands
    (Northern)
    20 35 45 ABOVE Moderate-High
    Kiribati
    (Western)
    20 35 45 ABOVE Moderate-High
    Tokelau 20 35 45 ABOVE High
    Tuvalu 20 35 45 ABOVE High
    Kiribati
    (Eastern)
    25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High
    Marquesas 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High
    Tuamotu
    Islands
    25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High
    New Caledonia 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High
    Papua New
    Guinea
    30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High
    Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate
    Society Islands 30 35 35 CLIMATOLOGY High
    Solomon
    Islands
    35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate-High
    Austral Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High
    Samoa 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High
    Wallis &
    Futuna
    40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High
    Cook Islands
    (Southern)
    45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Niue 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Vanuatu
    (South)
    45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    FSM 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate
    Fiji 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Tonga 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Vanuatu
    (North)
    50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for
    the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall
    occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is
    

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23. 6/04/16 23
    METPI rainfall results
    

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24. 6) METPI SST forecasts (AMJ 2016)
    6/04/16 24
    

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25. 6/04/16 25
    SST anomalies
    For March 2016
    SST forecasts for AMJ 2016
    

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