ICU_182_NDJ_2016

Support material for the ICU (issue 182, NDJ 2015/16) teleconference. Includes the preliminary METPI results for the rainfall outlooks

Transcript

1. Island Climate Update 182 Forecast period: November 2015 – January 2016 Teleconference Wednesday 4th of November 2015 (12:30 PM NZ Gme) 4/11/15 1
2. 1) Some words on Rainfall / ConvecGon and SST anomalies last month (October 2015) 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system): situaGon and forecast 3) Madden-Julian OscillaGon (MJO) diagnosGcs and forecasts 4) METPI Rainfall Forecast 5) METPI SST Forecast 4/11/15 2 Outline
3. 1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec<on) and SST in the SW Pacific 4/11/15 3
4. Rainfall averages and anomalies (TRMM / GPM) 4/11/15 4
5. 4/11/15 5 hUp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml
6. 4/11/15 6 •  Well below = < 40 % of normal •  Below = between 40 and 80 % •  Normal = between 80 and 120 % •  Above = between 120 and 160 % •  Well above = > 160 % Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM)
7. SST anomalies September 2015 SST anomalies October 2015 4/11/15 7
8. 4/11/15 8
9. 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa<on and forecast 4/11/15 9
10. SOI and SST NINO INDICES 4/11/15 Datasource = BoM (hUp://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/) 10
11. The ENSO Precipita<on Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days (29 Sep.) is +1.71 (El Niño) SOI and ESPI INDICES 4/11/15 hUp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html 11
12. Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies 4/11/15 hUp://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 12
13. Ocean sub-surface temp anomalies (TAO) 4/11/15 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13 hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml September 2015 October 2015 Last 5 days (28 September)
14. 4/11/15 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14 hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/ wksl_anm.gif Ocean heat content anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies
15. ENSO forecast © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal Guidance) 4/11/15 15 CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast ProbabiliGes IRI/CPC Mid-Month Plume-Based ENSO Forecast ProbabiliGes Season La Niña Prob. Neutral Prob. El Niño Prob. NDJ 2015 0% 0% 100% JFM 2016 0% 0% 100% AMJ 2016 8% 56% 36%
16. 3) MJO diagnos<cs and forecasts 4/11/15 16
17. Madden Julian Oscilla<on Monitoring (BoM) 4/11/15 hUp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ or hUp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/ 17
18. Madden Julian Oscilla<on Dynamical Forecast (CPC) 4/11/15 hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast 18
19. Madden Julian Oscilla<on sta<s<cal Forecast (CPC) 4/11/15 hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast 19
20. 4) METPI Rainfall forecasts (OND 2015) 4/11/15 20
21. 4/11/15 21
22. 4/11/15 22 METPI rainfall results November 2015 – January 2016 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Kiribati (Eastern) 10 30 60 ABOVE High Kiribati (Western) 10 30 60 ABOVE High Tuvalu 15 30 55 ABOVE Moderate-High Tokelau 20 35 45 ABOVE High Cook Islands (Northern) 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Marquesas 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Tuamotu Islands 35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate-High Society Islands 40 35 25 AVG-BELOW Moderate-High Austral Islands 45 35 20 BELOW High New Caledonia 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High Wallis & Futuna 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate Papua New Guinea 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Solomon Islands 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate Fiji 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Samoa 55 30 15 BELOW Moderate Vanuatu 55 30 15 BELOW High FSM 55 30 15 BELOW High Cook Islands (Southern) 60 30 10 BELOW Moderate-High Niue 60 30 10 BELOW High Tonga 60 30 10 BELOW High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is an overall assessment of the expected rainfall relative to normal for the time of year.
23. 4/11/15 23 METPI rainfall results
24. 6) METPI SST forecasts (OND 2015) 4/11/15 24
25. 4/11/15 25