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ICU_182_NDJ_2016

 ICU_182_NDJ_2016

Support material for the ICU (issue 182, NDJ 2015/16) teleconference. Includes the preliminary METPI results for the rainfall outlooks

Nicolas Fauchereau

November 03, 2015
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  1. Island Climate Update 182
    Forecast period:
    November 2015 – January 2016
    Teleconference Wednesday 4th of November 2015
    (12:30 PM NZ Gme)
    4/11/15 1

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  2. 1) Some words on Rainfall / ConvecGon and SST anomalies last month
    (October 2015)
    2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system): situaGon and forecast
    3) Madden-Julian OscillaGon (MJO) diagnosGcs and forecasts
    4) METPI Rainfall Forecast
    5) METPI SST Forecast
    4/11/15 2
    Outline

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  3. 1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec4/11/15 3

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  4. Rainfall averages and anomalies (TRMM / GPM)
    4/11/15 4

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  5. 4/11/15 5
    hUp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml

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  6. 4/11/15 6
    •  Well below = < 40 % of normal
    •  Below = between 40 and 80 %
    •  Normal = between 80 and 120 %
    •  Above = between 120 and 160 %
    •  Well above = > 160 %
    Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM)

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  7. SST anomalies September 2015
    SST anomalies October 2015
    4/11/15 7

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  8. 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa4/11/15 9

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  9. SOI and SST NINO INDICES
    4/11/15 Datasource = BoM (hUp://www.bom.gov.au/
    climate/enso/)
    10

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  10. The ENSO Precipita(El Niño)
    SOI and ESPI INDICES
    4/11/15
    hUp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/
    Events/thirty_day.html
    11

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  11. Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies
    4/11/15 hUp://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 12

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  12. Ocean sub-surface temp anomalies (TAO)
    4/11/15 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13
    hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml
    September 2015 October 2015 Last 5 days (28 September)

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  13. 4/11/15 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14
    hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml
    hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/
    analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/
    wksl_anm.gif
    Ocean heat content anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies

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  14. ENSO forecast
    © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal Guidance)
    4/11/15 15
    CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast ProbabiliGes
    IRI/CPC Mid-Month Plume-Based ENSO Forecast
    ProbabiliGes
    Season La Niña
    Prob.
    Neutral
    Prob.
    El Niño
    Prob.
    NDJ 2015 0% 0% 100%
    JFM 2016 0% 0% 100%
    AMJ 2016 8% 56% 36%

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  15. 3) MJO diagnos4/11/15 16

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  16. Madden Julian Oscilla4/11/15
    hUp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ or hUp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/
    17

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  17. Madden Julian Oscilla4/11/15
    hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
    18

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  18. Madden Julian Oscilla4/11/15
    hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
    19

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  19. 4) METPI Rainfall forecasts (OND 2015)
    4/11/15 20

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  20. 4/11/15 22
    METPI rainfall results
    November 2015 – January 2016 ICU Rainfall Guidance
    ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE
    Kiribati
    (Eastern)
    10 30 60 ABOVE High
    Kiribati
    (Western)
    10 30 60 ABOVE High
    Tuvalu 15 30 55 ABOVE Moderate-High
    Tokelau 20 35 45 ABOVE High
    Cook Islands
    (Northern)
    25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High
    Marquesas 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High
    Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High
    Tuamotu
    Islands
    35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate-High
    Society Islands 40 35 25 AVG-BELOW Moderate-High
    Austral Islands 45 35 20 BELOW High
    New Caledonia 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Wallis &
    Futuna
    45 35 20 BELOW Moderate
    Papua New
    Guinea
    50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Solomon
    Islands
    50 30 20 BELOW Moderate
    Fiji 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Samoa 55 30 15 BELOW Moderate
    Vanuatu 55 30 15 BELOW High
    FSM 55 30 15 BELOW High
    Cook Islands
    (Southern)
    60 30 10 BELOW Moderate-High
    Niue 60 30 10 BELOW High
    Tonga 60 30 10 BELOW High
    Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for
    the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall
    occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is
    an overall assessment of the expected rainfall relative to normal for the time of year.

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  21. 4/11/15 23
    METPI rainfall results

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  22. 6) METPI SST forecasts (OND 2015)
    4/11/15 24

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