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ICU_184

 ICU_184

support material for the ICU 1854 (JFM 2016) teleconference, including preliminary METPI rainfall outlooks

Nicolas Fauchereau

January 11, 2016
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  1. Island Climate Update 184
    Forecast period:
    January – March 2016
    Teleconference Tuesday 12th of January 2016
    (12:30 PM NZ Ame)
    12/01/16 1

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  2. 1) Some words on Rainfall / ConvecAon and SST anomalies last month
    (December 2015)
    2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system): situaAon and forecast
    3) Madden-Julian OscillaAon (MJO) diagnosAcs and forecasts
    4) METPI Rainfall Forecast
    5) METPI SST Forecast
    12/01/16 2
    Outline

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  3. 1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec12/01/16 3

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  4. Rainfall averages and anomalies (TRMM / GPM)
    12/01/16 4

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  5. 12/01/16 5
    hUp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml

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  6. 12/01/16 6
    •  Well below = < 40 % of normal
    •  Below = between 40 and 80 %
    •  Normal = between 80 and 120 %
    •  Above = between 120 and 160 %
    •  Well above = > 160 %
    Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM)

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  7. SST anomalies November 2015
    SST anomalies December 2015
    12/01/16 7

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  8. 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa12/01/16 9

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  9. SOI and SST NINO INDICES
    12/01/16 Datasource = BoM (hUp://www.bom.gov.au/
    climate/enso/)
    10

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  10. The ENSO Precipita(El Niño)
    SOI and ESPI INDICES
    12/01/16
    hUp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/
    Events/thirty_day.html
    11

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  11. Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies
    12/01/16 12

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  12. Ocean sub-surface temp anomalies (TAO)
    12/01/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13
    hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml
    November 2015 December 2015 Last 5 days (January 9)

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  13. 12/01/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14
    hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml
    hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/
    analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/
    wksl_anm.gif
    Ocean heat content anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies

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  14. ENSO forecast
    © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal Guidance)
    12/01/16 15
    CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast ProbabiliAes
    IRI/CPC Mid-Month Plume-Based ENSO Forecast
    ProbabiliAes
    Season La Niña
    Prob.
    Neutral
    Prob.
    El Niño
    Prob.
    JFM 2016 0% 0% 100%
    AMJ 2016 0% 29% 71%
    JAS 2016 37% 48% 15%

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  15. 12/01/16 16
    Recent Pacific Westerly Wind Burst

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  16. 3) MJO diagnos12/01/16 18

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  17. Madden Julian Oscilla12/01/16
    hUp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ or hUp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/
    19

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  18. Madden Julian Oscilla12/01/16
    hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
    20

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  19. Madden Julian Oscilla12/01/16
    hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
    21

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  20. 4) METPI Rainfall forecasts (JFM 2016)
    12/01/16 22

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  21. 12/01/16 23
    TRMM rainfall anomalies
    for the past 30 days
    Rainfall forecasts for JFM 2016

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  22. 12/01/16 24
    METPI rainfall results
    January – March 2016 ICU Rainfall Guidance
    ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE
    Kiribati
    (Eastern)
    10 30 60 ABOVE High
    Kiribati
    (Western)
    10 30 60 ABOVE Moderate-High
    Tuvalu 20 30 50 ABOVE Moderate-High
    Tokelau 20 35 45 ABOVE High
    Cook Islands
    (Northern)
    25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High
    Marquesas 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High
    Tuamotu
    Islands
    25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High
    Austral Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High
    Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High
    Papua New
    Guinea
    35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate-High
    Solomon
    Islands
    35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate-High
    Society Islands 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High
    New Caledonia 45 35 20 BELOW High
    Cook Islands
    (Southern)
    50 30 20 BELOW Moderate
    Fiji 50 30 20 BELOW High
    Samoa 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Vanuatu
    (South)
    50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Wallis &
    Futuna
    50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Niue 55 30 15 BELOW Moderate-High
    Tonga 55 30 15 BELOW Moderate-High
    Vanuatu
    (North)
    60 30 10 BELOW High
    FSM 60 30 10 BELOW High
    Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for
    the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall
    occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is

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  23. 12/01/16 25
    METPI rainfall results

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  24. 6) METPI SST forecasts (JFM 2015/16)
    12/01/16 26

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  25. 12/01/16 27
    SST anomalies
    For December 2015
    SST forecasts for JFM 2016

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