ICU 169 support material

Preliminary support material for the Island Climate Update 169 teleconference call

Transcript

1. Island  Climate  Update  169   Forecast  period:   October  –  December  2014   Teleconference  Thursday  2nd  of  October  2014   (12:30  PM  NZ  Dme)   3/10/14   1  
2. 1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecDon,  circulaDon  and  SST  anomalies   last  month  (September  2014)   2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system):  situaDon  and  forecast     3)  Madden-­‐Julian  OscillaDon  (MJO)  diagnosDcs  and  forecasts     4)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast     5)  METPI  SST  Forecast     3/10/14   2   Outline    
3. 1)  Recent  Rainfall  (+Convec<on)  and  SST  in  the  SW  Pacific   3/10/14   3  
4. Rainfall  averages  and  anomalies  (TRMM)     3/10/14   4  
5. 3/10/14   5  
6. 3/10/14   6   •  Well  below  =  <  40  %  of  normal   •  Below  =  between  40  and  80  %   •  Normal  =  between  80  and  120  %   •  Above  =  between  120  and  160  %   •  Well  above  =  >  160  %   Past  6  months  rainfall  anomalies  for  ICU  Islands  group  (TRMM)  
7. SST  anomalies  August  2014   SST  anomalies  September  2014   3/10/14   7  
8. 2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situa<on  and  forecast     3/10/14   8  
9. SOI  and  SST  NINO  INDICES   3/10/14   Datasource  =  BoM  (h^p://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/)   9  
10. The  ENSO  Precipita<on  Index  (ESPI)  for  the  last  30  days  (2  Oct.)  is  0.38     (El  Nino  side  of  Neutral)   SOI  and  ESPI  INDICES   3/10/14   h^p://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html   10  
11. Surface  equatorial  SST  and  Zonal  Wind  anomalies   3/10/14   11  
12. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)   3/10/14   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 12   h^p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml  
13. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)   3/10/14   13   From  h^p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evoluDon-­‐status-­‐fcsts-­‐web.pdf    
14. 3/10/14   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14   h^p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml   h^p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-­‐10/ wksl_anm.gif   Ocean  heat  content  anomalies  (0  –  300  m)  and  sea  level  anomalies  
15. 3/10/14   15   Ocean  heat  content  anomalies  (0  –  300  m)  and  sea  level  anomalies   From  h^p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evoluDon-­‐status-­‐fcsts-­‐web.pdf    
16. ENSO  forecast     ©  NIWA  (Na)onal  Climate  Centre  Na)onal  Guidance)       3/10/14   16  
17. 3)  MJO  diagnos<cs  and  forecasts     3/10/14   17  
18. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  Monitoring  (BoM)   3/10/14   h^p://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/  or  h^p://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/     18  
19. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  Dynamical  Forecast  (CPC)   3/10/14   h^p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     19  
20. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  sta<s<cal  Forecast  (CPC)   3/10/14   h^p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     20  
21. 4)  METPI  Rainfall  forecasts   3/10/14   21  
22. 3/10/14   22   NSIPP  GMAO  Rainfall   http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/products/climateforecasts/GEOS5/plots/2014/jul/atmos//precip/precip_anom_2014_3_seasonal.gif  
23. 3/10/14   23   METPI  rainfall  results   October – December 2014 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Austral Islands 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Solomon Islands 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Kiribati (Eastern) 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Niue 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Papua New Guinea 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Kiribati (Western) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High FSM 30 35 35 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate-High Cook Islands (Southern) 35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate-High Marquesas 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High New Caledonia 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Samoa 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Society Islands 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Tonga 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Tuvalu 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Vanuatu 35 40 25 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Cook Islands (Northern) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Fiji 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Tokelau 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Tuamotu Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Wallis & Futuna 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is an overall assessment of the expected rainfall relative to normal for the time of year.
24. 3/10/14   24   METPI  rainfall  results  
25. 6)  METPI  SST  forecasts   3/10/14   25  
26. 3/10/14   26