screencast_ICU148.pdf

Transcript

1. Island  Climate  Update  148   Forecast  period:   January  –  March  2013   Teleconference  Friday.  8th  of  January  2013     (12:30  PM  NZ  Bme)   10/01/13   1  
2. 1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecBon  and  SST  anomalies  last  month   (December  2012)   2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situaBon  and  forecast     3)  Other  indicators  (MJO,  SAM  …)     4)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast     5)  METPI  SST  Forecast     10/01/13   2   Outline    
3. 1)  Recent  Rainfall  (+Convec<on)  and  SST  in  the  SW  Pacific   10/01/13   3  
4. Rainfall  anomalies  and  averages    (TRMM)     10/01/13   4   Here  latest  30d.  TRMM  rainfall  averages  and  anomalies   (received  via  email  8AM  the  8th  of  Jan.)  
5. NOAA  OLR  Anomalies   10/01/13   5  
6. SST  anomalies  November  2012   SST  anomalies  December  2012   10/01/13   6  
7. 2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situa<on  and  forecast     10/01/13   7  
8. SST  NINO  INDICES   10/01/13   8  
9. The  ENSO  Precipita<on  Index  (ESPI)  for  the  last  30  days  is  -­‐0.11   SOI  and  ESPI  INDICES   10/01/13   9  
10. Surface  equatorial  SST  and  Zonal  Wind  anomalies   10/01/13   10  
11. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  and  heat  content  anomalies     10/01/13   11  
12. ENSO  forecast     ©  NIWA  (Na)onal  Climate  Centre  Na)onal  Guidance)       10/01/13   12   Climate Model or Group DJF 2012/13 MAM 2013 JJA 2013 POAMA2.4 (Australia) Neutral   Neutral          Neutral   ECMWF (EU) Neutral   Neutral   Unavailable   EuroSIP (EU) Neutral   Neutral   Unavailable   LDEO5 (USA)          Neutral+   Neutral+   Neutral   NCEP CFS (USA)          Neutral+ Neutral   Neutral   Met Office (UK)          Neutral Neutral Unavailable SCRIPPS/MPI (USA/FRG) Warm Neutral+ Neutral   NASA-GMAO (USA)  Neutral+ Warm Warm   JMA (Japan) Neutral Neutral Unavailable   FRCGC SINTEX (Japan) Neutral Neutral Neutral     CPC CCA (USA) Neutral   Neutral   Neutral   NOAA Linear Inverse (USA)          Neutral Neutral Neutral SSES (Ohio, USA)          Neutral   Neutral   Unavailable   CLIPER (USA) Neutral   Neutral     Neutral   Florida State Univ. (USA)  Neutral+   Neutral Neutral  
13. 3)  Other  diagnos<cs  and  forecasts  (MJO,  SAM  …)     10/01/13   13  
14. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  Monitoring  (BoM)   10/01/13   14  
15. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  Dynamical  Forecast  (CPC)   10/01/13   15  
16. Southern  Annular  Mode  (SAM)   10/01/13   16  
17. 5)  METPI  Rainfall  forecasts   10/01/13   17  
18. 10/01/13   18   Here  ICU  METPI  SPCZ  forecast  
19. 10/01/13   19   METPI  rainfall  results  
20. 6)  METPI  SST  forecasts   10/01/13   20  
21. 10/01/13   21   Dec.  2012  –  Feb.  2013   Jan.  –  Mar.  2013                           
22. 10/01/13   22   METPI  SST  results