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QPol Brexit Clinic 27 June 2018

QPol Brexit Clinic 27 June 2018

The latest slide deck from the QPol Brexit Clinic team

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QPol at Queen's

June 27, 2018
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Transcript

  1. Prof David Phinnemore (@Dphinnemore) QPol Brexit Clinic 27 June 2018

  2. Article 50 Process – A Timeline 2017 29 March Notification

    of Intention to Withdraw X 29 April European Council (EUCO) adopts guidelines X 19 June Withdrawal Negotiations start X 15 December EUCO agrees ‘sufficient progress for move to second phase; adopts additional guidelines X 2018 29 January Council Supplementary Negotiating Mandate X February Negotiations on transition arrangements start; draft Withdrawal Agreement (WA) published X 23 March EUCO adopts ‘guidelines on the framework for the future EU-UK relationship’ X April ‘preliminary and preparatory discussions’ on framework for the future EU-UK relationship’ start X October WA to be concluded; political declaration on future framework for UK-EU relations to be adopted December WA to be signed 2019 January Ratification of Withdrawal Agreement by European Parliament and UK Parliament begins 29 March UK Withdraws from the EU; transition period begins 30 March UK-EU Negotiations on future relationship start 2020 31 December Transition period ends 2021 1 January UK-EU ‘new strategic partnership’ to enter into force
  3. Article 50 Negotiations – Phase Two (2018) Withdrawal Commission and

    UK: completing work on withdrawal issues (financial settlement, citizens’ rights, Irish dimension, other issues); negotiating text of the Withdrawal Agreement Transition Commission and UK ‘negotiate’ arrangements for transitional period of ‘around two years’; inclusion of terms of transition in Withdrawal Agreement Future UK-EU Relations ‘preliminary and preparatory discussions’ with the aim of identifying an overall understanding of the framework for the future EU-UK relationship; political declaration on future framework to be included in Withdrawal Agreement Ireland and Northern Ireland Strand European Council – October 2018: Withdrawal Agreement to be agreed European Council – June 2018: ‘concern that no substantial progress has yet been achieved’ (draft) Limited progress on Irish dimension Progress, but agreement conditional on agreement on terms of withdrawal, notably Irish dimension
  4. European Council (EU27) June 2018 Draft Conclusions (26 June 2018)

    1. In light of the state of play presented by the Union negotiator, the European Council welcomes the further progress made on parts of the legal text of the Withdrawal Agreement while noting that other important aspects still need to be agreed. 2. The European Council expresses its concern that no substantial progress has yet been achieved on agreeing a backstop solution for Ireland/Northern Ireland. It recalls the commitments undertaken by the UK in December 2017 and March 2018, and insists on the need for intensified efforts so that the Withdrawal Agreement, including its provisions on transition, can be concluded as soon as possible in order to come into effect on the date of withdrawal. It recalls that negotiations can only progress as long as all commitments undertaken so far are respected in full. 3. Work must also be accelerated with a view to preparing a political declaration on the framework for the future relationship. This requires further clarity as well as realistic and workable proposals from the UK as regards its position on the future relationship . The European Council reconfirmed the principles set out in its guidelines and the position defined in March 2018. The European Council recalls that if the UK positions were to evolve, the Union will be prepared to reconsider its offer in accordance with the principles stated in the guidelines of 29 April and 15 December 2017 as well as of 23 March 2018. 4. The European Council renews its call upon Member States, Union institutions and all stakeholders to step up their work on preparedness at all levels and for all outcomes.
  5. EU and UK Negotiators: Joint Statement (19 June 2018) Progress

    on the protocols to the Agreement 7. On Northern Ireland and Ireland, scoping work has continued on the full range of provisions in the Protocol, in the context of both parties’ commitment to the Belfast or Good Friday Agreement in all its parts. Both Parties recognise that the backstop on Ireland/Northern Ireland requires provisions in relation to customs and regulatory alignment in line with paragraph 49 of the Joint Report of December 2017. Discussions were held on the UK proposal of 7 June which aims at addressing the customs aspects of the backstop. The finalised results of the North-South mapping exercise on cross border cooperation will be published shortly. The Parties are committed to accelerating work on the outstanding areas, noting that both Parties agree the scope of the draft Protocol reflects the issues that require legally operative agreed text in the Withdrawal Agreement. Joint statement from the negotiators of the European Union and the United Kingdom Government on progress of negotiations under Article 50 TEU on the United Kingdom's orderly withdrawal from the European Union, TF50 (2018) 52 – Commission to EU27, Brussels, 19 June 2018 Areas Outstanding 6. Both Parties have engaged on outstanding issues concerning the protection of data processed before the end of the transition/implementation period ('period'), geographical indications, the treatment of ongoing police and judicial cooperation in criminal matters, the finalisation of ongoing Union judicial and administrative procedures at the end of the period and possible new procedures concerning facts arising before the end of the period, consistent application and interpretation of the Agreement by both the Union and the UK and dispute settlement.
  6. Common Regulatory Area Establish an area without internal borders in

    which free movement of goods is ensured and North-South cooperation protected (Article 3) Movement of People Common Travel Area and associated rights to continue (Article 2) Rights of Individuals No diminution of rights, safeguards and equality of opportunity as set out 1998 Agreement; UK to facilitate work of human rights and equality bodies (Article 1) Preamble Commitments from Joint Report Free Movement of Goods Northern Ireland… shall be considered to be part of the customs territory of the EU (Article 4) Agriculture and Fisheries EU law on (a) sanitary and phytosanitary rules and (b) production and marketing of agricultural and fisheries products to apply to Northern Ireland (Article 5) Single Electricity Market EU law governing wholesale electricity markets to apply to Northern Ireland (Article 6) Environment EU law or environmental protection concerning movement of goods to apply to NI (Article 7) Other Areas of North-South Cooperation Maintain conditions for continued cooperation, including in the areas of environment, health, agriculture, transport, education and tourism, as well as energy, telecommunications, broadcasting, inland fisheries, justice and security, higher education and sport (Article 8) State Aid EU law governing state aid to apply in respect of trade between NI and the EU (Article 9) Specialised Committee Establish a Specialised Committee to facilitate the implementation and application of Protocol (Article 10) including discussion of proposals from North-South Ministerial Council (Article 10) Supervision and Enforcement EU institutions and bodies – including Court of Justice – to have jurisdiction over Common Regulatory Area (Article 11) Common Provisions Application and implementation of Protocol; application of new EU law; representation in EU decision-shaping; risk assessments; personal data protection (Article 12) Safeguards Safeguards in cases of serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties (Article 13) Protection of Financial Interests counter fraud and any other illegal activities relating to EU and UK interests in Northern Ireland (Article 14) Subsequent Agreement Replacement in part or in full of Protocol by future agreement (Article 15) Annexes Lists of relevant EU law in three annexes to be integral part of the Protocol (Article 16) Protocol on Ireland/ Northern Ireland
  7. Dr Viviane Gravey (@VGravey) QPol Brexit Clinic 27 June 2018

  8. None
  9. The ‘Letwin/Goldsmith’ amendment • “ 80%” of governance gap addressed

    (Lord Krebs) ? • “The Government promised us the same standards as the EU has given us, and they have backtracked on that.” (Baroness Jones) • England only & Reserved matters • Only central government • Sectorial gaps • Unclear independence, funding ** DEFRA consultation until 2.08 **
  10. Heathrow’s Brexit expansion? Air quality rules Environmental Impact Assessments Accountability

    mechanisms
  11. What does it mean for NI? “ History is littered

    with the corpses of environmental watchdogs and sustainable development watchdogs that were set up at one point by Governments, either in the UK or elsewhere, and then killed off subsequently by Administrations.” Martin Nesbit, IEEP (EAC hearing) England only? NI-ROI – also a matter for EU negotiations Where does it make sense to work together E/W, N/S?
  12. 1. Common frameworks 2. N/S & International cooperation 3. Environmental

    principles 4. Accountability & governance structures
  13. Prof Dagmar Schiek (@dschiek, @treup, d.schiek@qub.ac.uk) QPol Brexit Clinic 27

    June 2018
  14. What next? - some legal perspectives • Legal-political critique of

    the draft withdrawal agreement on Ireland/Northern Ireland • Imagining progress? • What about rights?
  15. What’s wrong with the draft protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland? •

    Rights of individuals (chapter 1) as sole responsibility of the UK – The UK is structurally unable to replicate EU rights, because these are mutual, and have direct effect under the protection of the ECJ – Accordingly, EU citizenship rights are not encompassed by chapter 1 • Movement of people (chapter 2) relegated to Common Travel Area – Does not encompass economic free movement rights – Only protects Irish and British citizens – Not directly effective, no protection by ECJ • Common Regulatory Area – Has direct effect and is under the protection of ECJ (Article 11, not agreed) – Is limited to free movement of goods, including agricultural goods and electricity 15
  16. Imagining progress? [what if..] • Changes in substance – To

    expand the common regulatory area to encompass free movement of goods, services, persons and capital – To add EU dimension to individual rights guarantees • Changes in supervision & enforcement – To add an obligation of the Joint Committee to consult the people of Northern Ireland through the institutions created by the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement – Ensure that EU dimension to individual rights guarantees partakes in Article 11 guarantees 16
  17. What about “rights”? • “Brexit threatens human rights by removing

    the protections of the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights, diluting the EU citizenship rights of Irish citizens and eradicating those of British citizens who reside in Northern Ireland and upsetting the constitutional balance underpinning the Belfast Agreement. • Brexit will breach the principle of equivalence of rights protections across the island, threaten North-South cooperation and potentially introduce an increasingly hostile and racist environment for migrants. The Conservative Party is also committed to the repeal of the Human Rights Act which incorporates the European Convention on Human Rights into UK law.” (letter to the Irish times, here in full: https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/letters/the-eu-and-the- rights-of-ni-citizens-1.3532119 • The UK’s withdrawal from the EU eliminates the notion of judicially protected rights from the UK legal landscape. This does not only affect human rights, but also any other right • More seriously, the UK’s withdrawal from the EU eliminates the reciprocal guarantees of economic and civic rights for EU citizens in other Member States. This affects Irish citizens in Northern Ireland, as well as British citizens, who cease to be EU citizens. – In my opinion, the elimination of frontiers in the Internal Market and the civic rights of EU citizens are an indispensable basis of the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement [flip forward to slide of February] • More severe threats to human rights in the UK result from the lack of effective protection nationally: the Human Rights Act stops short of providing invalidity of acts violating human rights. 17
  18. economic Articles 45, 49, 56 TFEU and secondary law Free

    movement The above + Article 21 – “pure economic rights” Civic/ political Elections / Petitions EP Civic cooperation EU CITIZENS’ RIGHTS – IN FULL + secured in CFREU From Brexit Clinic February 2018
  19. Sources • Legal-political critique of the draft withdrawal agreement on

    Ireland/Northern Ireland – http://qpol.qub.ac.uk/island-of- ireland-brexit-draft-withdrawal- agreement/ (links to a 14 page full analysis) • Imagining progress? – was made for this clinique • My blog on the Home Office statement of intent on “settled status” for EU citizens • http://qpol.qub.ac.uk/h ome-office-statement- intent-settled-status/ 19 You might also like..
  20. (@QPolAtQueens) QPol Brexit Clinic 27 June 2018