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Visions of the global transport system to 2050

Robin
September 01, 2015

Visions of the global transport system to 2050

Slides from my presentation at the Royal Geographical Society's 2015 annual conference, Exeter: http://conference.rgs.org/AC2015/71

Robin

September 01, 2015
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  1. Going Dutch? Visions of the global transport system to 2050

    Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds, at RGS-IBG 2015, Exeter Created with open source software Slides: speakerdeck.com/robinlovelace
  2. Structure • Opening remarks • The global transport system •

    Visions of the future • Methodology • Hypotheses
  3. I: Opening remarks Map made with the open source R

    package tmap See https://github.com/Robinlovelace/Creating-maps-in-R
  4. Global transport emissions • 7.0 GtCO2 in 2010, '23 %

    of ... CO2 emissions' (Sims et al. 2015) • Growing faster than other sectors: heading towards '12 Gt CO2 eq / yr by 2050' (Ibid.) • Seems to have no upper limit, unlike other sectors (food, heating, stuff), linking to Ivan Illich's (1974) Energy and Equity.
  5. Does cycling energy benefts? → The energy costs of travel

    work http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/
  6. A Global Vision Source: Sims et al. (2015) Acronyms: Latin

    America and Caribbean (LAM), Middle East and Africa (MAF), and Economies in Transition (EIT)
  7. Overall approach • Critique of IPCC scenarios • Analysis of

    demand • Comparison with literature • Alternative scenarios • Focus on demand reduction • Compare with policies Critical Constructive
  8. Scenarios of the future • Government target • Gender equality

    • Go Dutch • Ebikes • Business as Usual • Demand reduction • Go Dutch • Ecotechnic future Implemented (DfT funded Propensity to cycle tool) Proposed
  9. Data • IPCC scenarios database • IEA aggregate data •

    Surveys from selected nations • Country data from International Road Federation (IRF), World Band and other sources • Inference and assumptions From: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator
  10. Hypotheses • Demand reduction scenario will be more effective than

    'Go Dutch' scenario at reducing emissions and energy use • The IPCC will be found to be pessimistic in its assumptions regarding transport demand • Reduced energy-intensive travel can be achieved through policies aimed at improving health and quality of life
  11. Key references • Goodwin, P. (2013). Get Britain cycling: report

    from the inquiry. London. Retrieved from http://allpartycycling.fles.wordpress.com/2013/04/get-brita in-cycling_goodwin-report.pdf • Kay, D., Reynolds, J., Rodrigues, S., Lee, A., Anderson, B., Gibbs, R., … Gill, T. (2011). Fairness in a car dependent society. Sustainable Development Commission: http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications.php?id=1184 • Lovelace, R., Beck, S. B. M. B. M., Watson, M., & Wild, A. (2011). Assessing the energy implications of replacing car trips with bicycle trips in Sheffield, UK. Energy Policy, 39(4), 2075–2087. • Sims, R., Schaeffer, R., Creutzig, F., Cruz-Núñez, X., D’Agosto, M., Dimitriu, D. et al. (2014). IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) - Chapter 8: Transport. Retrieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/ • Melia, S. (2015). Urban Transport Without the Hot Air. Cambridge: UIT.