Visions of the global transport system to 2050

Transcript

1. Going Dutch? Visions of the global transport system to 2050

   Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds, at RGS-IBG 2015, Exeter Created with open source software Slides: speakerdeck.com/robinlovelace

2. Structure • Opening remarks • The global transport system •

   Visions of the future • Methodology • Hypotheses

3. I: Opening remarks Map made with the open source R

   package tmap See https://github.com/Robinlovelace/Creating-maps-in-R

4. Context: the 'PCT' project

5. Worldviews of the transport system Transport

6. A worldview based on system dynamics Transport

7. Source: http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications.php?id=1184

8. II: The global transport system Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/worldbank/ Licence: Creative Commons

9. Global transport emissions • 7.0 GtCO2 in 2010, '23 %

   of ... CO2 emissions' (Sims et al. 2015) • Growing faster than other sectors: heading towards '12 Gt CO2 eq / yr by 2050' (Ibid.) • Seems to have no upper limit, unlike other sectors (food, heating, stuff), linking to Ivan Illich's (1974) Energy and Equity.

10. Transport emissions over time Source: http://mitigation2014.org/report/figures

11. Global transport energy flows Source: Sims et al. (2015)

12. GDP ~ CO2 In transport Source: Sims et al. (2015)

13. Does cycling energy benefts? → The energy costs of travel

    work http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/

14. III: Visions of the future Image credit: http://campfire.theoildrum.com/node/5976

15. Problems with predictive models https://tinyurl.com/conversation-cycling

16. A Global Vision Source: Sims et al. (2015) Acronyms: Latin

    America and Caribbean (LAM), Middle East and Africa (MAF), and Economies in Transition (EIT)

17. The National Propensity to Cycle Tool (NPCT) (+ live demo!)

18. IV: (Proposed) Methodology

19. Overall approach • Critique of IPCC scenarios • Analysis of

    demand • Comparison with literature • Alternative scenarios • Focus on demand reduction • Compare with policies Critical Constructive

20. Scenarios of the future • Government target • Gender equality

    • Go Dutch • Ebikes • Business as Usual • Demand reduction • Go Dutch • Ecotechnic future Implemented (DfT funded Propensity to cycle tool) Proposed

21. Data • IPCC scenarios database • IEA aggregate data •

    Surveys from selected nations • Country data from International Road Federation (IRF), World Band and other sources • Inference and assumptions From: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator

22. Model-data comparison

23. V: Hypotheses and discussion

24. Hypotheses • Demand reduction scenario will be more effective than

    'Go Dutch' scenario at reducing emissions and energy use • The IPCC will be found to be pessimistic in its assumptions regarding transport demand • Reduced energy-intensive travel can be achieved through policies aimed at improving health and quality of life

25. Hypothesis: interactive, collaborative, open-source approach = effective Credit: Robin Lovelace

26. Thanks for listening! Credit: Robin Lovelace Email. r.lovelace@leeds Twitter: @robinlovelace

    GitHub: robinlovelace

27. Key references • Goodwin, P. (2013). Get Britain cycling: report

    from the inquiry. London. Retrieved from http://allpartycycling.fles.wordpress.com/2013/04/get-brita in-cycling_goodwin-report.pdf • Kay, D., Reynolds, J., Rodrigues, S., Lee, A., Anderson, B., Gibbs, R., … Gill, T. (2011). Fairness in a car dependent society. Sustainable Development Commission: http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications.php?id=1184 • Lovelace, R., Beck, S. B. M. B. M., Watson, M., & Wild, A. (2011). Assessing the energy implications of replacing car trips with bicycle trips in Sheffield, UK. Energy Policy, 39(4), 2075–2087. • Sims, R., Schaeffer, R., Creutzig, F., Cruz-Núñez, X., D’Agosto, M., Dimitriu, D. et al. (2014). IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) - Chapter 8: Transport. Retrieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/ • Melia, S. (2015). Urban Transport Without the Hot Air. Cambridge: UIT.

28. Data inaccessibility http://www.irfnet.ch/ http://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/WDIrevisions.xls

29. Software: a barrier to envisioning a sustainable future http://www.oasys-software.com/products/engineering/massmotion.html